Couple of questions from a complete novice to gaming and only an occasional hi-def TV viewer ....
BOXES are now splitting into gaming and living room / download netflix type use. Is there a reason to buy this box for your living room if a roku type instrument costs so much less?
if you're right .... AMD is a fairly damaged corp profile .... what valuation do you put on it as an operating concern. I know you see cash flow from this device but is it enough to overcome the rest of the story? Who else has strong internal eval on the company, you mention Jeffries ......
What would be the first sign this isn't the product you think it is? timing ... how long should one evaluate the thesis?
This is a wonderful piece as far as it goes .... but it does not develop ANY new news on the ability of this company to structure its business dealings, its own balance sheet / cash flow mechanisms in a way as to even remotely suggest that they can manage profitability AND have shareholder interests in mind.
You leave the reader to conclude that the INDUSTRY of mobile payments is mind boggling and MITK is a leader in the software sales. FACT accepted.
The management will NOT provide any suggestion of how to value new bank contracts. They have been adding bank after bank after bank and the use of the program goes up and up and up and they have nothing to show for it. The truth is they have given this product away to gain market share. They have allowed their channel sales partners to prosper off of it and then they spent capital raised by way of a PIPE, using the proceeds to build a sales org < think headcount and expenses> to go forward and sell the next evolution of their software < bill pay > without the channel partners. i'll bet their sales partners were thrilled by THAT move.
My guess is you're right they will modestly improve by way of legal fees coming down, headcount stabilizing, and more sales that are both channel and direct. But I sincerely question management's ability to understand their own business model and how to develop it best in a public stockownership model.
If people go and examine the lawsuit materials they will see how little profit is generated via the best app they ever developed. I believe they will have much bigger competition for bill pay as the checking solution was the right thing at the right time and should have been THE home run for them.
A buyout candidate if you're patient is my most likely guess.
I once owned it for a small gain. No interest in it currently.
Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For May 2013 [View article]
A methodology / technique question for you ...
A lot of people follow buybacks and a lot of companies purport to have buyback programs in place. Often the issue gets muddy when the "buy" in buyback doesn't take place as quickly /directly as one might have lead to believe or when the company uses stock based compensation broadly < think hi tech companies in particular> and they buy back some stock only to dilute the effect with new stock.
If I were to run across a company I like and they had a buyback program publicly announced, what database or research method do you use to monitor the above mentioned pitfalls? Is there a back of the envelope / simple way to measure this?
13F Reports: Latest Portfolio Moves By Buffett, Einhorn, Klarman and Others [View article]
I know the Edgar database publicly shows all of the 13f "data", but I have always struggled at finding a way to electronically monitor certain filers and then further even download data that you can actually manipulate as opposed to just print / see on paper. Anybody with experience at that email me please.
Contrary to the popular "tapering" term being thrown about of late (including by himself), St. Louis Fed chief Jim Bullard says the Fed could increase the size of its asset purchases if inflation softens further. "I'm very willing to defend the inflation target from the low side." [View news story]
smirk ....
wow.
When is the Fed / Congress / Admin .... going to wake up and recognize we financed assets on bad TERMS and interest rates don't make up for the missing link. Interest rates could go to zero ... ooops ... they already have, and the problem would not be addressed.
You should have had down payments on homes and equity in corp deals, not PIK's.
SINCE they allowed such terms to be offered in the free market ... and now deem they should NOT be offered in the free market < fannie /freddie .... hmmmm> then they should apply a remedy that is appropriate. Currently, bad credit people who took advantage of junk finance, 2/28 bullet terms with say 9% elevators cannot get credit. Duh. The problem is asset values <homes/ LBO's> went thru the roof because more buyers were prevalent. If you want assets to stabilize you should ALLOW people who have bad TERMS to refi at good terms, with a reasonable penalty/cost to keep the asset.
CBS (CBS) says it had exploratory talks with cable operators about taking local stations signals off the air and moving them to cable. The dramatic threat is part of a measured response by major broadcasters to the disruption Aereo poses with its streaming model and potential partnership with Dish Network (DISH). Also exploring the nuclear option: Fox, Univision. [View news story]
Bankrupt Suntech (STP +16.1%) soars on a rumor Berkshire Hathaway's MidAmerican Energy division is interested in the company. Though MidAmerican has acquired solar projects and provides installation services, buying a Chinese solar module maker would be off the beaten path. [View news story]
This is laughable.
The ONLY way BH gets into this is with some substantial guarantees from a gov't entity or a massive collateral coverage situation.
I see this article, ahem ... "news", as nothing more than a planted article / effort to have some movement in the price and create a little bit of a wedge for a fast trade.
Good luck if you are actually "investing" on the merits of this.
EMC (EMC +1.1%) and VMware's (VMW +5.6%) Pivotal Initiative will be taken public, EMC CEO Joe Tucci discloses during the companies' investor day (webcast). EMC will own 69% of the spinoff, and VMware 31%. Pivotal is headlined by EMC's Greenplum analytics database/hardware unit, but also features a slew of other product lines aimed at companies working on big data projects or developing Web/cloud apps. Given the hype surrounding Pivotal's addressable markets, the post-IPO valuation could be huge. [View news story]
You will still own 925 shares of EMC and you will receive an additional certificate for some undetermined number of shares from the new/spun off organization. The EMC and VM Ware will trade ex-"dividend" for lack of a better term some undetermined amount /value that the spinoff supposedly represents.
Overall .... this typically works out well. The thing to watch for is if the values place on the new company deducted from the old company make sense and whether or not there are big payments / dividends back to the original company or a huge DEBT burden taken on by the new company to enrich the old company. THAT is mischief but i don't THINK that's in play here. We'll see.
Dredging For Dollars: The Value Case For Orion Marine Group [View article]
EXCELLENT piece.
Akin to the long term Boeing replacement of planes cycle, the new ships needing better port facilities and the states not wanting to lose out to other ports / neighboring states will drive a LOT of activity in this area. MY GUESS ... a savvy investment banker should wake up and see this industry as ripe for consolidation of a lot of the smaller players.
The Era Of Intelligent Voice Technology - An Opportune Time To Invest In Nuance [View article]
It's a nice thought and yes people are buying their product /service. But its still just such a "toy". You can't ask siri anything really important ... you want it to direct your MEDICAL DEVICE!? Suggest you have her set up your funeral services in advance ......
As expected, Shell (RDS.A) has abandoned plans to drill for oil in Alaska's Arctic waters this year. The decision comes after Shell said it will send its two Arctic offshore rigs to Asia for repairs and upgrades following a series of mishaps, including the grounding of the Kulluk drillship in a storm. [View news story]
random question .... just who "owns" the "artic". Who can give permission and then who would sue if they do have an accident?
EDAP: The 'Holy Grail' In The Fight Against Prostate Cancer [View article]
a 15 yr study is compelling as doctors often move slowly to "new" and always want to see more data.
however, there are at least two reasoned opinions on here so far and i see no response / explanation / debate from the original premise author. if the reference to gleason numbers / patients is correct then how do you evaluate this apparent oxymoron .... the test population is now described as low gleasons, small prostates albeit with intermediate to high patient risk profiles? is this early "stage"? rapid or slow growth?
the business model / costs of implementing a newer technology is valid. Just what is the decision criteria by a hospital / doc ?
your profile suggest a level of intelligence that you have evaluated the company, likely know how to respond / explain.
I am a fan of "its never really different" as in the end MATH counts. I admit I am in a hurry and writing this without fully digesting this premise but have to ask a reflective question that with your answer may lead me to understanding your argument. Agree with the "earnings" manipulation side of all of this, but cannot fathom an individual investor breaking down say, a GE or a DISNEY and coming up with something meaningful. There's just too much going on within large multinationals to consider the effort worthwhile. HOW does your premise stack up against simpler models of free cash flows and do you consider THAT to be a valuable measure why/why not? Thanks.
Southeastern Asset Management, Dell's (DELL) largest independent shareholder with a 7.5% stake, reportedly believes that the $24.4B buyout undervalues the company. Southeastern's dissatisfaction adds to that of other shareholders such as Alpine Capital Research and Schneider Capital Management, who have said they'll vote against the deal. [View news story]
QUESTION: Since its an institutional size/scale deal, rather than a haggle over the immediate take out price, is there an opportunity for SAM if they LIKE the company so much to become part of the PRIVATE transaction and benefit from the long term outcome?
They know value well, they seem to indicate that the company will ultimately be valued better in the future, the company wants to take advantage of TODAY's price. The price today is unfortunately for SAM .... the price. You can SAY it is worth more but in the end nobody else in the market is paying up so the argument falls to insider collusion of price on the offer. The so called due diligence opinions / fair value opinion by all the investment banks are all intellectually questionalbe. < see mortgage products!>. MY guess is they move the deal up 75 cents as a token gesture to get rid of the issue.
Xbox? PS/4? The Big Winner Is AMD [View article]
BOXES are now splitting into gaming and living room / download netflix type use. Is there a reason to buy this box for your living room if a roku type instrument costs so much less?
if you're right .... AMD is a fairly damaged corp profile .... what valuation do you put on it as an operating concern. I know you see cash flow from this device but is it enough to overcome the rest of the story? Who else has strong internal eval on the company, you mention Jeffries ......
What would be the first sign this isn't the product you think it is? timing ... how long should one evaluate the thesis?
Thanks. Very decent article.
Mitek Systems Revisited [View article]
You leave the reader to conclude that the INDUSTRY of mobile payments is mind boggling and MITK is a leader in the software sales. FACT accepted.
The management will NOT provide any suggestion of how to value new bank contracts. They have been adding bank after bank after bank and the use of the program goes up and up and up and they have nothing to show for it. The truth is they have given this product away to gain market share. They have allowed their channel sales partners to prosper off of it and then they spent capital raised by way of a PIPE, using the proceeds to build a sales org < think headcount and expenses> to go forward and sell the next evolution of their software < bill pay > without the channel partners. i'll bet their sales partners were thrilled by THAT move.
My guess is you're right they will modestly improve by way of legal fees coming down, headcount stabilizing, and more sales that are both channel and direct. But I sincerely question management's ability to understand their own business model and how to develop it best in a public stockownership model.
If people go and examine the lawsuit materials they will see how little profit is generated via the best app they ever developed. I believe they will have much bigger competition for bill pay as the checking solution was the right thing at the right time and should have been THE home run for them.
A buyout candidate if you're patient is my most likely guess.
I once owned it for a small gain. No interest in it currently.
Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For May 2013 [View article]
A lot of people follow buybacks and a lot of companies purport to have buyback programs in place. Often the issue gets muddy when the "buy" in buyback doesn't take place as quickly /directly as one might have lead to believe or when the company uses stock based compensation broadly < think hi tech companies in particular> and they buy back some stock only to dilute the effect with new stock.
If I were to run across a company I like and they had a buyback program publicly announced, what database or research method do you use to monitor the above mentioned pitfalls? Is there a back of the envelope / simple way to measure this?
13F Reports: Latest Portfolio Moves By Buffett, Einhorn, Klarman and Others [View article]
Contrary to the popular "tapering" term being thrown about of late (including by himself), St. Louis Fed chief Jim Bullard says the Fed could increase the size of its asset purchases if inflation softens further. "I'm very willing to defend the inflation target from the low side." [View news story]
wow.
When is the Fed / Congress / Admin .... going to wake up and recognize we financed assets on bad TERMS and interest rates don't make up for the missing link. Interest rates could go to zero ... ooops ... they already have, and the problem would not be addressed.
You should have had down payments on homes and equity in corp deals, not PIK's.
SINCE they allowed such terms to be offered in the free market ... and now deem they should NOT be offered in the free market < fannie /freddie .... hmmmm> then they should apply a remedy that is appropriate. Currently, bad credit people who took advantage of junk finance, 2/28 bullet terms with say 9% elevators cannot get credit. Duh. The problem is asset values <homes/ LBO's> went thru the roof because more buyers were prevalent. If you want assets to stabilize you should ALLOW people who have bad TERMS to refi at good terms, with a reasonable penalty/cost to keep the asset.
It's really quite simple ...
CBS (CBS) says it had exploratory talks with cable operators about taking local stations signals off the air and moving them to cable. The dramatic threat is part of a measured response by major broadcasters to the disruption Aereo poses with its streaming model and potential partnership with Dish Network (DISH). Also exploring the nuclear option: Fox, Univision. [View news story]
Bankrupt Suntech (STP +16.1%) soars on a rumor Berkshire Hathaway's MidAmerican Energy division is interested in the company. Though MidAmerican has acquired solar projects and provides installation services, buying a Chinese solar module maker would be off the beaten path. [View news story]
The ONLY way BH gets into this is with some substantial guarantees from a gov't entity or a massive collateral coverage situation.
I see this article, ahem ... "news", as nothing more than a planted article / effort to have some movement in the price and create a little bit of a wedge for a fast trade.
Good luck if you are actually "investing" on the merits of this.
EMC (EMC +1.1%) and VMware's (VMW +5.6%) Pivotal Initiative will be taken public, EMC CEO Joe Tucci discloses during the companies' investor day (webcast). EMC will own 69% of the spinoff, and VMware 31%. Pivotal is headlined by EMC's Greenplum analytics database/hardware unit, but also features a slew of other product lines aimed at companies working on big data projects or developing Web/cloud apps. Given the hype surrounding Pivotal's addressable markets, the post-IPO valuation could be huge. [View news story]
Overall .... this typically works out well. The thing to watch for is if the values place on the new company deducted from the old company make sense and whether or not there are big payments / dividends back to the original company or a huge DEBT burden taken on by the new company to enrich the old company. THAT is mischief but i don't THINK that's in play here. We'll see.
Dredging For Dollars: The Value Case For Orion Marine Group [View article]
Akin to the long term Boeing replacement of planes cycle, the new ships needing better port facilities and the states not wanting to lose out to other ports / neighboring states will drive a LOT of activity in this area. MY GUESS ... a savvy investment banker should wake up and see this industry as ripe for consolidation of a lot of the smaller players.
The Era Of Intelligent Voice Technology - An Opportune Time To Invest In Nuance [View article]
As expected, Shell (RDS.A) has abandoned plans to drill for oil in Alaska's Arctic waters this year. The decision comes after Shell said it will send its two Arctic offshore rigs to Asia for repairs and upgrades following a series of mishaps, including the grounding of the Kulluk drillship in a storm. [View news story]
EDAP: The 'Holy Grail' In The Fight Against Prostate Cancer [View article]
however, there are at least two reasoned opinions on here so far and i see no response / explanation / debate from the original premise author. if the reference to gleason numbers / patients is correct then how do you evaluate this apparent oxymoron .... the test population is now described as low gleasons, small prostates albeit with intermediate to high patient risk profiles? is this early "stage"? rapid or slow growth?
the business model / costs of implementing a newer technology is valid. Just what is the decision criteria by a hospital / doc ?
your profile suggest a level of intelligence that you have evaluated the company, likely know how to respond / explain.
thanks.
3 MLPs For Attractive Returns [View article]
Stocks More Overvalued Than 1929 [View article]
Southeastern Asset Management, Dell's (DELL) largest independent shareholder with a 7.5% stake, reportedly believes that the $24.4B buyout undervalues the company. Southeastern's dissatisfaction adds to that of other shareholders such as Alpine Capital Research and Schneider Capital Management, who have said they'll vote against the deal. [View news story]
They know value well, they seem to indicate that the company will ultimately be valued better in the future, the company wants to take advantage of TODAY's price. The price today is unfortunately for SAM .... the price. You can SAY it is worth more but in the end nobody else in the market is paying up so the argument falls to insider collusion of price on the offer. The so called due diligence opinions / fair value opinion by all the investment banks are all intellectually questionalbe. < see mortgage products!>. MY guess is they move the deal up 75 cents as a token gesture to get rid of the issue.