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tsb10530

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  • As Alcatel-Lucent Surprises, Are Shares An Easy Double? [View article]
    For the first time in a long time, I think ALU is worth being "patient" about (as if shareholders/readership haven't already been that way going back to the days of Pat Russo and Ben Verwaayen) or even before that when Rich McGinn first began to corrupt LU. Nevertheless, let us give thanks for these gains however small. as they are a sign (one of many being repeated) that ALU is at least trying to move in the right direction. However, even for SA to raise the question about ALU's doubling share price places it way out ahead of itself and as such is still misleading information. I think a more balanced approach is the way to go especially given the Barron's article today from which I've included an excerpt:

    "We are maintaining a Neutral rating on Alcatel-Lucent (ticker:ALU). Revenue for the third quarter came in lighter than expected, but margins were strong due to continued fixed-cost savings under the Shift Plan. Even with incremental improvements in operating performance, the fundamental story for the stock remains uninspiring.

    A global diversified Telecom equipment vendor like Alcatel-Lucent is largely tethered to the trend in overall capital- expenditure growth which is flattish. We believe the easy cost cuts have already been made and revenue upside from here will be difficult to achieve given competition in Core Networking and lumpy demand for Access products." See web site below for full article.

    http://bit.ly/1EdkBUN

    We'd all love to see ALU double or triple but whether or not we adhere to either perspective, we need to be patient to see how (and if) ALU is able to make consistent quarter-by-quarter progress over a sustained period of time. No doubt we 'd all wish to see real growth instead of this incessant up and down churning in which the stock ultimately goes nowhere. Combes has at least gotten our attention...now let's see what he does with it!
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After My Bad Call, Is Alcatel-Lucent Still Worth Holding? [View article]
    Unfortunately Chris…your “bull case” call for ALU has been pretty much in keeping with most of the other SA contributor calls throughout this year and last…”pure BS” ... and doing more harm than good! Please spare us!
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent's Sale Of Enterprise Segment Has Reaffirmed Our Bull Case [View article]
    ALU is a joke no doubt even without the Euro...and now IAER's "Bull Case" is looking more like a "Bulls**t Case" !
    Oct 8, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent's Sale Of Enterprise Segment Has Reaffirmed Our Bull Case [View article]
    The folks at IAE Research are dreaming! None of ALU's latest technologies or asset sales will begin to matter until their bottom line net income is restored! In the meantime, their share price will continue to plummet. As of 2014 ALU's Net Income is still a minus 298 million Euros (Google Finance)! This shows ALU is NOT making any money, won't be able to attract investment, and remains especially vulnerable in light of global economic conditions!
    Oct 8, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent's Sale Of Enterprise Segment Has Reaffirmed Our Bull Case [View article]
    Actually, ALU's performance when compared to its peer-group substantiates my fears and unfortunately makes the "wash" scenario more likely to be correct. ALU leads the pack downward having plummeted 25% in the last 6 months... during which time ERIC went down 11%, JNPR down 17%, CIEN down 23%, and NOK up 20%. So any new investment in ALU (as well as CIEN) now as well as in the foreseeable future still appears to be throwing good money after bad!
    Oct 7, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent's Sale Of Enterprise Segment Has Reaffirmed Our Bull Case [View article]
    I would tend to believe Combes that ALU achieves profitability by mid-2015 since he's walked the talk so far and therefore I still trust him at his word. What I fear is that in the meantime ALU will drop considerably more before then so that if it finally does turn around and make it's move upwards, it might just end up where it is today at around $3.00 per share give or take. Thus any investment made during this time would be a wash and typical of ALU's ongoing underperformance in which the investor achieves nothing for his time and money!
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA/Merrill, Bernstein duel over Alcatel-Lucent [View news story]
    Enersavr: ALU seems to be doing lots of good things..here's a recent link that talks about a new Bell Labs Research facility opening in Silicon Valley!

    http://bit.ly/1wfmvQq

    Plus they're rapidly developing the small cell solutions with Qualcomm for 4GLTE...

    http://bit.ly/1wfmtIi

    However, what's holding them down is that they're still not showing any profits after paying expenses!
    Sep 9, 2014. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA/Merrill, Bernstein duel over Alcatel-Lucent [View news story]
    If what Bernstein says is true, ALU's IP Networking segment is responsible for at least 75% of the share price. He also implies that optical, wireline, and mobile segments must be responsible for the other 25% of the share price. However, he also says those segments are not competitive. I suppose we can safely assume those other 3 segments which contribute to only 25% of the share price are still consuming the bulk of ALU's resources...and the OM seems to bear this out. According to MW Profile (8/29/14), ALU's Operating Margin (OM) is 1.43 which means AFTER paying for raw materials and costs for running the business, they are barely breaking even. Until this business-fact changes, ALU can only bounce around the penny-stock range but go nowhere!
    Aug 29, 2014. 12:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In Alcatel-Lucent Spells Opportunity [View article]
    Share price is more accurately based on a company's Operating Margins (profits) rather than revenues. OMs for NOK, ERIC, JNPR, and CSCO are 7.3, 9.8, 13.1, and 20.7 respectively which very accurately reflect their share price. Until ALU's OM (1.4) shows improvement on a sustained basis, it will remain nothing more than a volatile penny stock trading at the whim of speculators.
    Aug 22, 2014. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Drop In Alcatel-Lucent Spells Opportunity [View article]
    I think investing in ALU at this time for the longer-term (rather than as a day-to-day trader) is not a buying opportunity but more like throwing good money after bad !
    Aug 20, 2014. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: It's Just A Question Of Quarters Before Cash Flow Improves [View article]
    I'm not one of those people who looks at a glass and says half-empty or half full...rather I don't think it matters and I prefer to know what's actually inside the glass...does it have any real substance or not. And so given ALU's performance to date I see nothing or very little (in terms of real performance) inside the glass that is of any real substance. As far as holding onto the stock longer term, ALU is still a marginal corporation so they would need at least another 4 quarters...and 4 more quarters when a company is operating on such a marginal basis might as well be an eternity!
    Jul 31, 2014. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Terrific Reasons To Buy Alcatel-Lucent On The Pullback [View article]
    And now today 7/31, the ER shows ALU as having acted true to form for 2Q14 and very much along the lines as predicted by mm81679 a week ago and since...nothing has changed and ALU continues to lose money!
    Jul 31, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Terrific Reasons To Buy Alcatel-Lucent On The Pullback [View article]
    You tend to talk out of both sides Nettligent...so it's impossible for anyone to understand or believe what you're saying !
    Jul 30, 2014. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Terrific Reasons To Buy Alcatel-Lucent On The Pullback [View article]
    ALU is indeed a huge ship...and investors need to always be on the lookout for icebergs ahead! As such, "reliable" information is absolutely essential!
    Jul 16, 2014. 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Terrific Reasons To Buy Alcatel-Lucent On The Pullback [View article]
    Yet another article listing reasons to invest in ALU in a long line of articles since last year if not earlier. However, nothing that really moves stocks upward has changed...still negative earnings...still large debt and overhead...still ongoing and barely positive operating margin (does anyone care to explain the reasons)...and still a stock price that has trended downwards over the past 6 months indicating no one is purchasing the stock other than to sell it the next day! So readers are left with these SA "feel good" articles about ALU’s performance that are just that. They provide a one-sided picture only and are therefore misleading!
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
208 Comments
167 Likes