Paul M

Seeking Alpha Stock Market Email Alerts FAQ

Nice service - thanks.

Having trouble managing my email subscriptions. No option to select fuill articles vs summary email on the setup page. Also when receiving full article it is not clear what newsletter it is associated with. If I unsubscribe from the email I don't know what else I am unsubscribing from. Be nice to have a newsletter tag. I guess you have updated the email handling as I could not add/change any subscriptions until I unsubscribed from all previous.

Jim Cramer's 10 Predictions for 2008

2008 will be the year where everyone else in consumer IT/gadget manufacture gets it on UI, coolness and jewelry quotient. 2007 valuation gain of the Horsemen is seen as justification for major investment in design.

How about these then for the Horsemen:

AAPL loses market share in portable media. Content delivery becomes fragmented with multiple sites offering audio and video. Higher bitrate DRM-free audio encoding becomes standard with AMZN taking significant share with lower cost MP3's playable on any and multiple devices. AMZN moves into video content distribution. Internet-based on-demand studio content starts to serve the long tail.

AAPL grows market share in personal computers. FLASH HD-based laptops released - with longer battery life, instant-on features. DELL, SONY and others counter, releasing laptop and and slick desktop models.

MSFT Zune players become the surprise hit as cooler alternative to ipod (look at this holiday sales) with better home media and XBOX integration. Zune competitor to iphone released. New XBOX released improving home integration and media features. Windows Media software provides open system access to multiple audio and video content sites. New WM releases on Vista and XP improve UI.

MSFT gains then in media applications and devices against AAPL. Corollary with Windows counter to Mac OS in mid 80's for PC's. MSFT surprises everyone with UI innovation. Will APPL release a gaming/media console to compete ?

RIMM rapidly loses market share to host of alternative smartphone providers. PALM is resurgent with new 3G devices and continues to offer both Windows Mobile and PALM OS devices. Windows Mobile becomes standard Enterprise smartphone OS with direct Exchange Server integration and is adopted widely by consumers.

Wireless service providers are compelled by Congress to curb contract-based-subsidy practices and open network access to compatible unlocked devices. NOK and ERIC see growth for mobile devices in NA, in particular for slider & candy bars with compelling jewelry quotient.

GOOG maintains search dominance but fails to grow market share against YHOO in Portal.

AMZN solidifies as primary online shopping site and expands significantly into audio and video content distrubution . Kindle sees early adopter and niche sales but fails to gain mass market acceptance.

Disclosure: I hold no position in MSFT but need to reconsider that fact

What Is Risk Premium Telling Us About U.S. Equities?

Interesting commentary. EY vs. bond yield does not imply increasing equity prices on historical charts. In particualr where driven by inflation. e.g. 1975-1980.

stockcharts.com/charts...

Last chart shows a significant advance correlation to equity prices.