Robert Freedland

http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstocks/

22 Comments

    • ON: Wed Oct 8th 07:57 AM
      Commented on:
      Global Payments Rated a Hold
      Veni,

      Thank you for your comment. Silly? Perhaps. I try to be entertaining as well as informative. In this particular entry drawn from my blog, I have tried to convey the why of my own particular sale, and how it affects my idiosyncratic portfolio management strategy.

      I do think these thoughts are valuable but perhaps taken out of the context of the rest of my entries may sound silly. I apologize if I have offended your sensibilities.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 8th 07:54 AM
      Commented on:
      Copart Rated a Sell
      Great comments. I do not pick the titles of the entries. They are taken from my blog and Seeking Alpha thankfully assumes the role of editor. Please be aware of that.

      As part of my blog, I have chosen when I comment on a stock to put in my five cents as to whether the stock is rated a "buy, sell or hold". When and if a more healthy environment in the financial world takes hold, Copart is a company I would hope would find a place in my own portfolio. As I tried to explain, I am having difficulty selling a stock from my holding and with a straight face tell readers they should either 'buy' or even 'hold' the same stock.

      I am sure that you all, many of you who are more sophisticated in financial evaluations, will understand my own dilemma.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 13:45 PM
      Commented on:
      Global Payments Rated a Buy
      From the Seeking Alpha transcript of the earnings report
      (seekingalpha.com/artic...)
      "Moving on to the balance sheet, our reported cash was $288 million at the end of August. Despite the current economic environment and the credit issues other companies have experienced, we believe that we are in a position of significant financial strength. We expect to easily meet the repayment obligations on our five-year term loan using internally-generated cash flow and we have an uncapped $350 million line of credit with a group of stable commercial banks."

      Will this be enough? Will the banks truly have that credit available? Will other events affect the accessability to credit for this company?

      These are great questions and I certainly don't have the answers. It appears that there are no places that are safe to avoid the current correction. Hopefully I shall be able to hold my GPN stock long enough to tell you that it was a good idea.

      What are your thoughts?


      View article »
    • ON: Sat Sep 27th 08:21 AM
      Commented on:
      Still Bullish on Graham Corporation
      Excuse me that was "Opie" not user I meant to respond to.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Sep 27th 08:20 AM
      Commented on:
      Still Bullish on Graham Corporation
      If you followed my other articles you will see that I sold my own GHM when it declined along with the plunging oil market. I view that as a 'fundamental' problem. Unfortunately, stocks that are associated with the oil industry are trading lower without any fundamental problems beyond the price of a barrel of oil. That is no small matter for stocks like this. In general, I stick with my own 8% loss limit after an initial purchase regardless of how much I like a stock. I have adopted this strategy from the CANSLIM approach.

      Please read my September 3, 2008 post on Seeking Alpha....I sold my own shares at $87.02 shortly before the post was picked up. You can also read my own blog directly.

      User268062---I don't manage anyone's money. I am an amateur investor and enjoy sharing some of my own observations with all of you.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 22nd 19:52 PM
      Commented on:
      My Investment Philosophy and Visa
      I sold my shares at $78.99. Visa closed today at $65.18. Did all of you Visa holders hang on or sell? What is wrong with selling at an 8% loss? For one thing it keeps you from having a loss of another $13/share.

      Where are my critics now?
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Sep 20th 08:28 AM
      Commented on:
      Citigroup: Trading Transparency
      Veni....

      After yesterday's humongous move to the upside....after Thursday's....I feel about as comfortable with the market as Cramer. I heard him advising people to sell a bit.

      The market is being driven now by the short-sellers and Hedge Funds who like sharks have been taking down financials one by one and now the Fed and the U.S. Government which is intervening as well.

      I am having a hard time knowing what is 'fair value' any more.

      I guess that is why I am back to my usual portfolio management strategy and not jumping in whole hog.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 1st 23:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I Bought and Sold Graham Corporation
      OK, so you bought in the mid $30's and sold in the mid $50's. And then a few months later GHM closes at $101.97 (8/1/08). O.K., pigs are led to slaughter, but was your method outstanding for identifying the right stock and then your sell system lead you to sell WAY too soon?

      I have done the same thing as well. Bought ISRG in the mid 30's and then sold when it hit $100. (stock is just over $300 now.)

      I suspect that selling a stock is the toughest thing to do. Especially when you have a profit.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 1st 23:05 PM
      Commented on:
      Visa: Why I Sold All of My Shares
      Guys,

      You paying attention to V stock? I sold at $78.99. V closed today (8/1/08) at $71.73. I must have been an idiot huh?

      Sorry.

      I hope you all make tons of money. But selling at an 8% loss can prevent that from becoming an 18% loss. But what the hey, just look at the grimace and the strange angle of my face. That will tell you a lot.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Jul 21st 18:47 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Taking a Chance on Meridian
      Jake,

      No I am not a masochist. I now have unloaded 1500 of those 2000 shares at about an average gain of 1.5 points.

      Trying to keep my hands off the last 500 for awhile.

      Just lucky I guess. Sometimes it pays to swim against the tide. Usually I have to call a lifeguard to pull me out :).
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Jul 12th 19:54 PM
      Commented on:
      Visa: Why I Sold All of My Shares
      For all of you who believe I have a "bonehead" 8% loss rule, please note that Visa (V) closed at $74.55 on Friday. I sold my shares at $78.99. That was over a month ago.

      Part of my strategy is to recognize that actions within my portfolio may well and probably do reflect the overall tone of the market.

      Writer after writer above has condemned my idiocy.

      I hope for all of you Visa bulls that Visa closes at $150 next month.

      But meanwhile, I shall plod along---examining stocks, thinking about stocks, limiting my losses, identifying new ideas, and responding to the actions of the market as they develop within my own portfolio.

      Investing is not a religious experience. It involves thinking, calculating, calmly and quietly making trades, conserving your assets, minimizing your losses, and protecting your gains.

      I shall continue to try to think. I may be an amateur, but I find the tenor of some of the comments quite disappointing from such a fine website as this.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Jul 12th 07:47 AM
      Commented on:
      Copart: Good Technical Strength and Solid Fundamentals
      I believe that Ranjit was discussing the apparent valuation problem for Copart (CPRT) when examined through the perspective of Price to Free Cash Flow. This is explained over at Investopedia:
      www.investopedia.com/t...

      "A valuation metric that compares a company's market price to its level of annual free cash flow. This is similar to the valuation measure of price-to-cash flow but uses the stricter measure of free cash flow, which reduces operating cash flow by capital expenditures. This is done as companies need to maintain or expand their asset bases (capital expenditure) to either continue growing or maintain the current levels of free cash flow.

      n general, the higher this measure, the more expensive the company is considered. But it is useful also to compare to the company's past levels of price-to-free-cash flow along with comparing the average within its industry. For example, if a company generated $200 million in operating cash flow and spent $50 million on capital expenditure, then it generated free cash flow of $150 million. If the company currently has a market cap of $5 billion, the company trades at 33 times free cash flow ($5 billion/$150 million)."

      With everything so nice at Copart (from my perspective), I do not know that this one particular measurement is a good reason to go 'short' on a stock. Of course, I didn't pay much attention to it....and went long!

      I hope that answers your question. You aren't a dummy at all as I am not very familiar with this parameter of valuation either.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jun 26th 17:42 PM
      Commented on:
      My Investment Philosophy and Visa
      Adesai,

      I sold my shares because they had incurred an 8% loss. That is my rule. I didn't even make that one up. I adapted it from William O'Neil of IBD fame.

      www.investors.com/lear...

      "Key Points To Remember

      * The first sell rule is to get rid of any stock that falls 8% below your purchase price.

      * It's critical to follow this loss-cutting rule regardless of how highly you value a stock. Personal opinions get in the way of smart selling decisions.

      * The larger the loss, the higher the recovery you need to get back to the break-even level. (A 50% loss on a $100 stock, for example, requires a 100% gain to get back to $100.)

      * Strong stocks sometimes initially retreat close to their buy point (as determined by the stock's chart pattern). This doesn't necessarily mean you have to sell, unless the stock goes 8% below the purchase price.

      * Avoid making sell decisions based on tax concerns or commission rates."

      My entire point, as you can see from today's market, that a sale at an 8% loss may be due to some intrinsic factor with something wrong with the stock or something wrong with the market itself dragging down all stocks. Either way, I prefer to step aside.

      Was it wrong to only change my rating to "hold" while I had personally sold my shares? I don't think so. My own rating is based more on fundamentals rather than technicals. My own sale was based on my own entry point. I would suggest that we all could benefit from limiting our own losses in this fashion.

      However, for me to change my rating to "sell" because I had incurred an 8% loss seems a bit far-fetched. Better to dip to a "hold" rather than leaving it at "buy". Just my own take on it I guess.

      Simply an 8% loss was my reason for selling.

      And I shall use that reason again in the future.

      I do not understand the outrage, the disparaging comments bordering on abusive and disrespectful, that I received from many a booster of Visa shares because I was honest and straight-forward. A lot of these so-called experts could use a bit of straight talk as well.

      I like Visa stock and believe that the long-term prospects are probably quite good. But I am very concerned about the immediate prospects for the market itself.

      And that is why an 8% sale, as long as you don't go immediately and reinvest the proceeds, can be helpful.

      Bob

      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jun 25th 18:43 PM
      Commented on:
      My Investment Philosophy and Visa
      My ratings on stocks are based on both the technical and fundamental information that I can observe and retrieve on the company discussed. My own sale was based on my own personal trading rules and not anything fundamentally wrong with the company. I have chosen to reduce my ratings in those situations to a "hold" as it would be unfair to be initiating a sale and keeping my own rating at a "buy". I reduce stocks to a "sell" rating when I believe something fundamentally wrong has happened to the stock. This might be a miss on an earnings report, an investigation, technical weakness, or a combination of all of the above.

      As is often the case, sales of stocks are an indication of overall market weakness as well as weakness in the company involved. Thus, after selling a stock on a loss, as I did with Visa, I do not go and reinvest the proceeds into another company so as to risk compounding the losses. I wait for a partial sale of one of my own holdings at an appreciation target (what I call 'good news') which 'entitles' me to be increasing the number of my holdings (unless at my maximum of 20 positions).

      Currently I am at 5 positions, reflecting the relative weakness, I believe, of the overall market. If I should sell a position now, at my minimum number of holdings, I do plan on replacing it with a suitable investment.

      My own portfolio thus drifts between 5 and 20 positions in a fashion that I believe will reflect market tone without any calculations on my part. That is why I am referring to my own 'idiosyncratic' buy signals. They have nothing to do with the technical appearance of any chart, rather, they are due to sales of my own holdings at either appreciation or depreciation targets...what I again call sales on 'good news' or 'bad news'.

      I hope this explains what I am trying to accomplish a bit better.

      It is unfortunate that there are any investors who would choose to enter into name-calling and abusive comments to a fellow investor. I have modestly referred to myself as an amateur. But I have been blogging for over 5 years and have been writing about hundreds and hundreds of stocks on my blog.

      Flip through all of the pages on my website and see what you think before you choose to pass judgment. I think many of you will appreciate the time and effort that has gone into my analyses.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Jun 16th 14:59 PM
      Commented on:
      Visa: Why I Sold All of My Shares
      Thank you all again,

      I do use my calculator when determining a sale. I do this on the upside and the downside. I am sorry if that doesn't work for the vast majority of you.

      I am in agreement that the chart for Visa is in an uptrend. I did not recommend anyone else to sell their shares. I simply sold my own shares because I have chosen to limit my losses to 8%. And yes, I calculate that out.

      Probably those that can anticipate price moves better than I shall be far more successful. Kudos to you all.

      I shall continue to limit my losses on each of my investments by selling them quickly on declines and selling them slowly and partially as they appreciate.

      There are many other fish in the ocean. Congratulations to all of you who have been successful with your Visa stock holdings.

      I believe strongly that the individual investor is best served by a disciplined approach to selection of stocks and managing them in a disciplined fashion as well. This strategy is not likely to be very well suited for everyone. It seems to work for me. And I shall continue to follow it and write about stocks as I go.

      I am sorry that so many of you do not seem to appreciate what I am doing and are quick to condemn what you do not understand. If I have wasted any of your time here on Seeking Alpha I apologize for that.

      But I do not think that I shall be changing my approach which is both how I manage my holdings as well as how I select my investments.

      Regards.

      Bob
      View article »
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