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Tamerlane

Tamerlane
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  • Natural gas (UNG -4.1%) tumbles as Weather Group LLC revises its forecast and predicts above-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. from Feb. 7-11. [View news story]
    Are you kidding me? This year has been warmer than usual??? Where? Except for November, which is more than made up for by Jan and Feb, where and when was this winter warmer than normal? Anyway, I think these shenanigans have to do with expiration. May have been a lot of leveraged longs who cannot take delivery and had to dump.
    Timur
    Jan 28, 2013. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    Consumption(-) Production
    -1.5 Exp Mexico +10 shale
    -2 Imp Canada(less) -1 conventional
    -.5 Imp LNG
    -4.5 Power gen
    -9.5 total Weather adjusted

    Dont see the imbalance... Now waiting for weather....
    Jan 4, 2013. 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Change Direction And Fall? [View article]
    Not to mention that that is no trivial range. Oh yeah, coal rallying would provide more impetus.
    Timur
    Dec 2, 2012. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Change Direction And Fall? [View article]
    Exports of LNG will equalize price with international LNG at USD 12/mmbtu - transportation cost.
    Coal celing is currently about 3.5 -4.0 USD,but I believe a new pipeline to NE enables cold wave price spikes in NE to affect spot at Henry Hub more. (Spreads should have narrowed.)
    Nov 27, 2012. 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Moly Achieves Major Milestone In Permitting The Mt. Hope Moly Mine [View article]
    I came here thinking that this was a play on words referring to Molybdenom as general moly and mt hope mine as some sort of reference to investor attitudes in a bear market etc.
    Nov 20, 2012. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fall Of The Electric Car... And The Rise Of The NGV [View article]
    I dont know how US ever became the business superpower of the world. Really, how? If you mass produce CNG kits, you can convert existing vehicles for less than usd 900 each. WHY does it cost so much? Insanely inefficient and high cost economy.
    Nov 11, 2012. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adams Resources: Low-Cost Play On Widening Brent-WTI Spread [View article]
    I am looking for some, any conclusive information on HOW MUCH the current capacity out of cushing is. I expect the combination of seaway and rail transport should atleast be able to start denting the spread.
    Nov 9, 2012. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fall Of The Electric Car... And The Rise Of The NGV [View article]
    Ive run a business, converting Diesel/petrol cars to cng for 7 years in India, looking for a partner in the US. I have a BS in Physics from Iowa State university, and a 790 on GMaT. This is your last, chance if you want to employ/partner me, or I will get that MBA.
    Nov 7, 2012. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Has Not Lifted Coal Stocks [View article]
    I don't have access to quotes from american markets, but I wonder whether coal stocks have followed up on the bullish expectation from 2 weeks ago...
    Oct 30, 2012. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Hurricane Sandy Affect The Price Of Natural Gas? [View article]
    Don't want to completely diss your article but when you write "Sandy will add volatility to an already volatile commodity" and then say you expect it to trade between 3.4 and 3.5, its really funny!
    3.4 to 3.5 is a less volatile DAY for engine.
    Oct 30, 2012. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Has Not Lifted Coal Stocks [View article]
    Hi current spot on CAPP coal is 53 and its 26.4 mmbtu/tonne(2.2pounds a kilo) so, thats almost exactly USD 2/mmbtu. Not as favourable as I made out to be, but still much cheaper. Factoring in coal inefficiency 1/.66 we still get a price of USD 3, cheaper than spot ng at 3.6 and winter futures at USD 4++.
    Oct 16, 2012. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Natural Gas Has Not Lifted Coal Stocks [View article]
    If international markets are currently weighing on thermal coal prices, may we say that the disparity between coal and natural gas has become greater than would be the case in an isolated american market? Is that what is happening? CCGT plants are more efficient (1.5 x electricity per calorie burnt) but NG at USD 4/mmbtu is >2.5x as expensive as coal now at say 70 USD per tonne of 5500 kcalories per pound. (70 usd for 12 million kcalories=48 mmbtu) So coal at 70 is only 1.4 USD per mmbtu!!! So I imagine that all easily switchable plants are already doing so (within constraints of regional market disparities) and the slower switching ones will have started selling their booked forward NG futures and placing coal orders for the winter season. This is visible in the Natural Gas COT report, which shows producers/consumers at a record low and small speculators/large speculators at record longs. Everything will be decided by winter in my opinion. It may have been early to go into coal stocks but now it would seem to be a great time, not even counting the long term resurgence in Chinese demand. Disclosure : Im stuck short NG @ 3.25.
    Oct 15, 2012. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Relief in Sight for Natural Gas [View article]
    Funny funny post. I wish I had read it earlier, so I could have bought any calls his followers sold.
    "Go ahead and keep buying. I'll be the one who said I told you so. By the way, how'd you enjoy the ridiculously bearish storage number today? "
    I enjoyed it thoroughly, as I was able to roll over my long position from june to july at a discount of 100 cents.
    -Timur
    May 29, 2011. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Supply to Boost UNG [View article]
    Although I share Mr powers opinion that NG is going to USD 8-10 by 2012, I have to make the following statement.
    If ng storage levels AFTER
    1) 1bcf per day bullish weather over the last 6 months.
    2) Declining production according to states and ground data.
    3) Declining imports of 1 bcf per day over a year.
    4) Increased power/industrial/ferti... demand.
    are still within 5 year averages:
    Then either production has increased at 2 BCF per day at one or two HIDDEN oil wells with stealth technology.
    OR
    EIA figures are off by 500-600 BcF.

    I believe the latter. I believe That after the interested parties are long, we will begin a 3month to one year period of 'correction' of the EIA data which will result in the deficit being covered as well as a surpluss being built into the figures, if a bubble is desired.

    so if the EIA moves from overreporting storage by 500 bcf to under reporting by 200 bcf, you need 2 bcf a day of surprises. So going forward I expect eia data to surprise by 14 bcf a week! Enough to create a nice run up.
    -Timur
    May 5, 2011. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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