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  • MORE SHORTSELL SIGNALS TODAY. IS THE RALLY ALREADY OVER? SELLING TO START AGAIN. [View instapost]
    Michael,
    Which parameters in these charts do you use to decide it's overbought? For example from Aug to mid Sep your charts show aapl as overbought but aapl didn't fall in that period. It went up.
    Nov 22, 2012. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
    Kirk:
    I looked at your link. It seems you lost 4% (-3.9%) last year when the Wilshire 5000 (the market) actually went up by 1%. You were off by 5%!

    http://bit.ly/zn5Pqe

    Yet you have the audacity to criticize others -- what gives you the right?

    "Are the Apple Fans who didn't like my article with Apple at $633 buying more?"

    If they sold it at 700 or even later at $660 as it came down, they made money. And those that didn't sell will make money long-term.

    Let's make a deal: if aapl blows away analysts' earnings projections this quarter will you then go away for ever?
    Nov 22, 2012. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tell When Apple Will Bottom [View article]
    @EW
    Good news: For your theory to be true aapl should also peak when the market does. In the last 1 year chart, it does, most of the time.

    (There is an anomaly where the market makes a triple top trying to stay strong, while aapl has already started falling from $700 at the first top. Earlier there is an anomaly in reverse when aapl peaks at 636. Still, your basic point holds.)

    Great article. Finally at least one article that makes clear sense of what makes the price rise and fall in aapl.

    The only trouble is, this means our analysis or the "weighing machine" matters far less than voting machine. We now need to develop ways to understand the way the market is voting, just as we have ways such as earnings, P/E, growth etc. to understand what the "weight" of a stock is.
    Nov 20, 2012. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Apple's Recent Share Price Weakness [View article]
    >People miss what makes Apple such a profound company. And how hard it is to do what they have done.

    Yes but the trillion-dollar question is are they doing it anymore? Recent introductions are weak on innovation.
    Nov 20, 2012. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Apple's Recent Share Price Weakness [View article]
    @positive
    "Apple launched more innovations to current products than it ever has in it's history"

    Huh?
    Is adding a bigger battery and faster CPU and calling it iPad 4, an innovation?

    Is shrinking the iPad 2 to make it a mini, innovation?

    Earlier we had innovations like the smartphone, touch screen only, an amazing user interface, 3G, Retina display, SIRI, etc. In iphone 5 we have what -- a slightly taller phone -- and that's innovation? And please don't tell me making it lighter and tighter is useful innovation. That's just fancy stuff with limited real value. Is LTE and a faster CPU innovation? No, others already had that. All we get is passbook and maps and both have some limitations. Yes, better camera -- but that's not enough.

    So the bottom line: not enough innovation in ANY of the products that Cook launched recently.

    This is why the stock fell more than it normally does after product launches. Hell, I could come up with more useful innovations in their products than these guys. I'll even work at Scott Forstall's salary :)
    Nov 20, 2012. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple 2012 Vs. Cisco 2000: A Distant Mirror And What It Tells Us [View article]
    @fauxscot
    "This quarter promises to be one to remember"

    Any facts on sales other than 5 million 5's and the minis sold in the initial days? I'm not saying that's bad, I'm just curious to know if there are any more facts on iPhone and iPad sales so far in this quarter that lead you to believe this quarter would be "one to remember".
    Nov 20, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Delicious At $500? [View article]
    @yardley
    Either that, or the demand isn't as robust as expected. Could be either. I'll wait for black Friday numbers before deciding.
    Nov 19, 2012. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Vs. Research In Motion: The Winner Is ... [View article]
    @george
    Excellent articles and follow up.

    I understand where you are coming from. For people that want greater returns than just "buy and hold" they need to think like voting machines. Not like weighing machines.

    You have been right on your calls so far...
    "I have also told you that Apple will be a buy (as a swing trade) somewhere in the range of $480 and $520 dollars. So far, I have been in the money."

    So according to you a "voting machine" investor would buy aapl around 500 and then sell at what price, and in how much time?
    Nov 17, 2012. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Delicious At $500? [View article]
    @bart
    Just curious, do you own or have you played with the iPhone 5 for some time?

    @KRV
    Nice article but it's based on how low the P/E ratios are. If the market is pricing in a reduction in earnings or growth going forward, and if the market does it again at the end of 2013 your cushions aren't enough.

    When the market loses confidence in a company you can't buy it on P/E ratios.
    Nov 17, 2012. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking George Soros's Portfolio: Q3 2012 Update [View article]
    Thanks for the insight
    Just curious, not criticizing: Why is George Soros' buys and sells worth an article? Does he outperform the indexes most of the time, as Buffet does?
    Nov 17, 2012. 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Bottom Friday? [View article]
    @Bret
    While this is indeed a classic reversal we've seen this before and it hasn't held. Tell us another sign, some sort of confirmation to watch for over the next couple of trading sessions to be more sure that this is indeed a reversal.
    Nov 17, 2012. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Investors Losing Confidence In Apple Stock? [View article]
    @dmarilley
    Agreed
    Tim Cook and Jony Ive made other strategic blunders.
    And I'm not talking about maps and the phone getting scratched, but serious stuff. When the iphone 5 sales fall below expectations in 2013 after the honeymoon period is over, who will they fire next? Themselves?!

    @author: It does not help to write what is already known for some time. If you have nothing new to say, please don't say it.
    Nov 17, 2012. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Apple's Cash To Your Advantage [View article]
    @outcast searcher
    I agree. This article Is making assumptions about where aapl will be by 2015 and then comparing it with CD returns -- which are not assumptions --is pure nonsense.

    If aapl screws up the next iPhone (5s or 6) I see another 25% drop. Or more.
    Nov 16, 2012. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low-Cost Way To Trade An Apple Rebound [View article]
    Robert Would be good to get some insight in to which is better the call or put for aapl at this point in time.
    Nov 16, 2012. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple On Sell-Off [View article]
    Appreciate your opinion and you may be right about a short term bounce - but the stock has not fallen due to the map fiasco and a case that gets scratched easily.
    Do you own or have you even played with the iPhone 5? I used it for an hour to find something good about it that would make me buy it. The camera is excellent but there is really nothing that would make me want to buy it and sell my iphone 4. Sadly I walked away disappointed. Even though I am an apple fan (not a fanboy) I have to admit, aapl screwed up. Big time. They needed to make it bigger. Thumbs, whatever. It needs to be bigger.

    (I did not make any phone calls with it so couldn't judge how much cleaner it would sound to me and the other person).

    Sure aapl will sell all they can make of the 5 and the mini in this quarter on momentum alone. But a brand image won't carry them for a year.

    The point is the iPhone 5 is not good enough and the street knows that. It also knows the mini will not stop competition at the $329 price. Which means eroding market share and unit sales growth for aapl's pads and phones.

    Jon, assuming for a moment that these are the reasons for the fall, do you still see a bounce to 630? And to what price do you see it bounce after earnings a bit over guidance?
    Nov 16, 2012. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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