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  • Tesla And The State Of The Electric Vehicle Debate [View article]
    Maybe it's not a requirement. But you have to seriously question his conviction if he can't put his money where his mouth is. It's easy to sit at a keyboard and expound on a theoretical view that boosts the writer's ego. I prefer something real. I want to see skin in the game.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The State Of The Electric Vehicle Debate [View article]
    You say it's a long term opportunity as well as a trading opportunity along the way. Yet you don't own any stock.
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Strategic Advantage [View article]
    The real advantages of Tesla are (1) their deep technology in the electric car industry developed over the years (2) the innovations they have (3) The extraordinary Elon Musk at the helm and (4) The "Cool" appeal of their brand. The author missed these key issues all together.

    In fact the article can pretty much be summarized in one sentence:

    > The important thing to observe is that Tesla is competing in the high-end, high performance car market, and that no BEV, PHEV or hybrid sport sedan from an established ICE carmaker approaches Model S sales within this market segment. <

    The author could have started and stopped there.
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Pre-Earnings Buy, As Company Has Options To Enhance Shareholder Value [View article]
    I did read the article fully.

    I use current earnings, and not earnings that one expects or hopes for in the future, specially when that expectation has already dropped (and may drop further).

    Assuming one is conservative and assumes a P/E of 15 in the future it's still to high.

    Don't remember if you offered earnings beat as a reason to buy GLW.
    Oct 28, 2014. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Pre-Earnings Buy, As Company Has Options To Enhance Shareholder Value [View article]
    @author A P/E of 20.7 is too high to buy on a hope and a prayer - unless there is real evidence supercaps can replace lithium batteries say in a car like Tesla? Elon Musk was deeply in to supercaps. He's publicly said that supercaps are the future for electric cars but have any advances happened in the last few months? IOW Is the future here? If not yet, why should I be paying a P/E of 20.7 for GLW on hope?

    The rest of the reasons stated do not seem strong enough; there are thousands of stocks to choose from.

    A well-written article. Thanks.
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's New $120,000 Flagship Matches The $61,000 Dodge [View article]
    Amusing article. I can see why the author no longer works as an analyst. Thanks for the entertainment.

    @author If you repeat it another 1000 times you will have enough material for a book and SA will publish it for you.
    Oct 10, 2014. 04:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Not Only Covered My J.C. Penney Short, I Bought The Stock [View article]
    @author Good article but why the plug for your book?
    Oct 2, 2014. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Hysteric Sell-Off Offers Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Another superficial analysis by Achilles "Research".
    Are you guys using SA to pump up stocks?
    Jan 22, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are The Bearish Triggers? [View article]
    >My covered call portfolio has made 17,000 + on a $100,000 investment since June '13

    If I understand your table right, you got a 17% return on $100,000

    Subtract from your $17,000 the value of the time you put in to do all the complex work. Assuming you spent just 50 hours doing all these trades then at just $100 per hour that's $5,000. Which means you made $17,000 less $5000 = $12,000 only. That's the same 12% return that the Dow Jones Industrials made since June, and in fact even gave you dividends.

    If you value your time then it looks like you were better off in an Index fund. Am I missing something?
    Jan 22, 2014. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can American Express Double Once More? [View article]
    Good basic article, but the analysis is superficial / very basic. Something in-depth would be appreciated at SA. I'm not sure that free cash flow deserves so much importance in your article. Some other factors you mention such as increased consumer spending and why there would be positive surprises in the market could be fleshed out by explaining the numbers and the trends behind them, and what would have to happen for these to surprise.

    And while your basis of doubling is an increase in EPS you do not offer projected EPS for the next 3 years.

    I would not use increase in P/E multiple as the basis for buying the stock -- unless you think that it will go much higher, such as 25, and also compare your projected multiple to the historical P/E for AXP.

    You might also want to address the timing: sine it has just jumped, this is not the best time to buy the stock, wait instead for a pullback or a dip in the market to buy it.

    Finally, there is some concern whether in a few years the convenience of e-payments of some type (such as NFC) will overshadow credit cards, and you could describe what AXP is doing in that field, if anything. These new technologies have the power to make credit cards obsolete.

    Since this article is by a research company one expects far more.
    Jan 22, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RE: I Bet On Tesla Because Most Investors Don't Understand Electric Cars [View article]
    I agree that there is a high chance of TSLA pulling it off.
    But it is not 100% or even 90%. My point is that there are uncertainties and events that you cannot imagine or predict today.

    If you claim that the right number is $170, then the $147 price today means that there is an 86% chance of TSLA actually achieving the $170 number your spreadsheets models. An 86% chance seems too high to me. I would be more comfortable with 60% - 70%, (= a price of about $110) and as a smart investor I would hope for a discount below this "fair" value of $110. (I may not actually get that price as the stock has a lot of hype and hope in it.)

    You will ask, what unknowns? Well, maybe for example we will see a new type of battery tech that is better and cheaper than what TSLA committed to. If that starts shipping in 1 year, the TSLA stock price will drop 6 months before that as the smart money starts exiting.

    There could be other unpredictable events.

    If you don't believe it, think of the iPhone. Just 2 or 3 years back it was the unstoppable leader. Today no one could make that argument.

    And yes there is a moat, but a GM does not have to build an EV as great as TSLA, just one that is "good enough" to sell at at a lower or same price. TSLA did it right, but GM may do it "just adequate" and succeed anyway. And while there is no sign of a capable EV at GM they may have a secret project.

    VH, You seem to think correctly, logically, but in a fixed / limited way.
    The future is just not that predictable or logical. There are the "unknown unknowns". It could be as simple as a key engineer or Elon Musk in a plane crash (I hope not!). Remember for Apple it was the death of Steve Jobs.

    If TSLA pulls it off they will make the world a better place. The world really needs examples like Apple and TSLA to wake it up and show what's possible.
    Jan 14, 2014. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar-Powered Electric Vehicles: Panacea Or Hype? [View article]
    With the technology that we have today, maybe, solar cell costs are bottoming out. We don't know what new technology will surface tomorrow that would drive down costs. Breakthroughs happen all the time. Tesla broke the barrier on EV cars, someone or some new technology might do it for Solar cells. Amazing things happen every day. That's the world we live in.
    Sep 17, 2013. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors mulls options to gain ability to sell directly to consumers [View news story]
    Michael -- when printing was invented thousands of scribes lost their jobs. Should we ban printing?

    When cars were invented thousands of horse-drawn carriages had to be stopped. Should we side with the horse-carriages as it keeps the jobs?
    Sep 9, 2013. 03:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Authentec, And Fingerprint Cards [View article]
    Thanks for your comment and you may be right about LiranC, but your attitude / tone is wrong. Here at SA we respect others. LiranC raised some "obvious" concerns a layman would have. He has the right to express his concerns. You have the right to correct him, but not to insult him.

    (Sure, if someone is trying to intentionally mislead, be disingenuous then yes we can be harsh with that person, because he is out do something that is fraudulent.)

    Otherwise, every person deserves respect because he is a human being.
    Sep 8, 2013. 02:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Tesla Motor's Gargantuan Battery Supply Problem Into Perspective [View article]

    > and its worse for the battery industry because the battery industry will inevitably take the blame for Tesla's failings.

    Why? Why would anyone blame Panasonic if Tesla failed? Their batteries are running just fine.

    In fact, Tesla's helping the battery industry buying (as you claim) "obsolete " products that they have excess capacity for today.

    According to you they will soon have even more excess capacity for these batteries, so I would think Tesla is a God-send to the battery industry.

    You also state that you are comfortable that Tesla will grow to 20,000 to 30,000 cars per year. That's good enough for now.

    Your motivation shows up in your conclusion to your article. Instead of stating that Tesla has (in your opinion) may a serious battery problem, you instead attack the stock price.
    Sep 7, 2013. 02:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment