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TimothyF

TimothyF
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  • Alcatel-Lucent Remains A Short Sale Candidate [View article]
    Bruce....
    Your Combes appraisals are becoming boring, the same repetitive story over-and-over....

    I agree that their styles might be different, i.e. conference calls, but many of the decisions taken in '10 -'13 are paying out now. We haven't seen most of the Combes effect yet, Q4 will show whether the improvement is sustainable, and s/p justified....

    Good luck, and don't get carried away too much in good (now) and bad times (I remember your emotional comments in '12).

    Cheers.
    Jan 2, 2014. 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent Remains A Short Sale Candidate [View article]
    "It certainly takes more than few quarters to turnaround this tanker."

    True. Company this size, still dealing with post-merger dynamics in a highly competitive market, is like an oil-tanker. It takes time to turnaround. The development of the share price therefore is based on measurements taken in several quarters, and even years before.

    Your statement: "New Management is fundamentally different to the old one" is not true. I think Combes is benefiting from measures taken by the previous management, and he's contributing, to further enhance ALU's competitiveness.

    Upcoming quarter, traditionally the best one, will be important, and will show direction for '14. If ALU fails to deliver, there's no justification for this company being close to today's valuation. I would hold on to your position though
    Dec 30, 2013. 05:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Why would Obamacare affect the stocks you mention?

    I assume your personal view on Obamacare is not part of this....
    Dec 20, 2013. 04:31 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    You must be one hell of a (future) CEO, if you saw all of this coming years ago BruceLee.... ;-)
    Nov 12, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Where are you from if I may ask?

    I am just saying the Europeans, and French in particular, are not gonna piss-off the Chinese, and if they do, the Chinese couldn't care less about ALU, and they will be favorable to NSN and ERIC, or will give an even larger chunk to local players. As I said, lived there, I know how it works.

    And your general statement, sorry, you can not be serious. I hope.
    Nov 5, 2013. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    I wish you well!
    Nov 5, 2013. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Sam, that is guessing, or wishful thinking at best. Don't forget that ALU had to use (part of) its portfolio as collateral for the loans last year.

    Personally, It think the 20 bln estimation is insane, 6 months ago, ALU was a 2 billion dollar company, CSCO, or any big tech-firm, hedge fund could have bought the firm with a 100% premium, and sell-off the patents and make a killer-profit overnight. And that didn't happen. Actually, unlike Nokia, ALU so far hasn't been able to monetize on its portfolio, besides using it as collateral.
    Nov 5, 2013. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    That increase is great, but still far below ERICs net margin. And that's the one that counts at the end of the day. But indeed, the increase is promising.

    Nevertheless, we do not need to talk about ERIC as it is a sick patient, on the brink of collapse. Unfortunately for my ALU holding; ERIC still owns ALU big time. Both in revenue, let alone Mcap. Hopefully one day this will change. ;-)
    Nov 5, 2013. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    I bet they have other things, don't they? For instance a global #3 spot in mobile devices.
    And what do they spend that R&D money on? Copying? So while they actually spend more, on lower paid engineers you think the only thing they do is copy-paste? I lived in China, and I can tell you that the days that the Chinese just only copied are over.

    Huawei has received some negative attention, particularly in the US, but I wouldn't go that far, boldly claiming that they will soon be banned in Europe. What do you think will happen in that case? Remember Merkel and the German solar industry? Do you think France, with its cripple economy and 20+ years of trade deficits, wants to risk losing the Chinese market? Remember those Chinese contracts... It's politics, lot of barking, no biting.

    Huawei poses a great treat, and ALUs only way dealing with it, is maintaining focus, offering great products and services, and partnerships with successful companies like Qualcomm.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Bruce....

    Unfortunately the world is not that simple that a patent has a fixed value.

    That 9 billion, mights as well be 500 million. It all depends on quality. If the market would really believe that its portfolio is worth that much, ALUs share would probably double within weeks.

    And unlike Nortel, or even Nokia for that matter, so far few tech-giants have been willing to pay substantial cash for these patents.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Huawei are outspending ALU big time on R&D....
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Same goes for the Chine deals.

    Huawei is experiencing pretty tough opposition in the US, normally the Chinese would retaliate, but I guess they consider ALU French enough.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Contracts at hand function as collateral.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    Good question. I would like to know that too. We've been talking about monetizing that portfolio for more than a year, and I haven't seen a prince on a white horse carrying a big bag of cash.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: On The Way To $8 A Share? [View article]
    You mean the China, as in the nation where some state-companies have higher debts than a country like Greece?
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
223 Comments
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