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  • Algorithmic Forecast Is Bullish On Las Vegas Sands [View article]
    So why don't you buy some shares and hold them? LEAP options just decay with time and you need momentum fairly quickly before they are worth anything. Much more volatile as well as time goes on.
    Jul 9 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Walt Disney Company: A Wonderful Company Currently Overvalued [View article]
    In that case they are already somewhat "married" as the largest shareholders of both companies own both Apple and Disney. Its up to the Board whether or not they want that relationship to become more symbiotic or not.
    Jul 2 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Once Again, Here's What To Expect [View article]
    I've owned Alcoa since 2011 and this is the first time I've been in the green. No reason to sell now and go home. Love the acquisition, their engineered products segment will just fuel more growth in one of their smaller segments. Aluminum prices have fallen for 3 years, they seem to be stabilizing. Seems like management is upbeat and confident. I wish they would hedge aluminum prices next time they get frothy but I won't go there. One earnings call won't define the future of Alcoa, I'm looking more towards July 2018 to see how things will have turned out.
    Jul 2 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Should Continue To Rebound [View article]
    The 5 year weekly charts of LVS and MPEL look ripe, even though I'm not a big chartist, because I am in agreement with most people here about the growth potential of Asian casinos I am considering opening a position again in MPEL. I already own LVS. I used to trade between them rather than owning both as it seemed to go against diversification and portfolio theory, but owning both may be a kind of hedge if MPEL expands to the Philippines and LVS does not get to go into Japan. I do realize it is likely LVS will end up in Japan, but its a concept worth thinking about.
    Jul 1 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Walt Disney Company: A Wonderful Company Currently Overvalued [View article]
    Disney would not sell to Apple. There is absolutely no benefit for them in that transaction. The synergies are not there, the companies are completely different. Disney is a massive conglomerate. Plus, one of the largest shareholders in Disney is the Steve Job's estate, or whomever has inherited it by now. They don't need to buy Disney, they already own it.
    Jun 30 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Alcoa Get A Good Deal By Acquiring Firth Rixson? [View article]
    I have to look at my annual report again but the debt problem really depends on the type of debt it is carrying. I am assuming they are selling mostly corporate bonds, which pay more interest than most other fixed income investments right now, but still, interest rates remain low on the whole and I'm sure the durations and coupons have been well thought out. If there is any time to have a decent amount of debt to fuel growth, it is now. It will cause some investor concerns, but if revenues and earnings grow, the company will do fine, as is the case always. The price of aluminum is still a factor in the overall profitability of Alcoa, so we can only hope that rebounds. Its has been at lows for a while now.
    Jun 30 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Walt Disney Company: A Wonderful Company Currently Overvalued [View article]
    Exactly, we see the same argument that DIS is over valued every week. Yet people still fail to see that it is not a company you can compare to Viacom and CBS. There are simply too many moving parts, and growing moving parts at that. Why an investor in Disney would write a negative article on the company to spook potential new buyers makes absolutely no sense. Maybe the author owns shares and has either sold calls or bought puts? Or is just short and saying he is long? Why write a negative article on a company you own?
    Jun 26 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Sell AbbVie And Buy Gilead Sciences [View article]
    I doubt it is a taxable event. Unless they changed the laws this year. Maybe for Shire shareholders, as they will be receiving ABBV shares as compensation, but I see no reason why ABBV would have to pay tax for acquiring a company. In fact as you probably know, the company is going for the acquisition in part to save on taxes. I don't see any way this could be construed as a taxable event. If it even happens.
    Jun 26 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Group Is Highly Undervalued With 200% Upside [View article]
    I think general transparency is an issue here. Probably is with most large financial institutions. There is really no way to gauge whether the less well known assets under management are actually valuable. And how exactly does the management fee work for the publicly traded partnership? They have many other partnerships not sold to the general public (only accredited investors I assume), that earn different fees most likely, and may not even contribute to the earnings of the public partnership. LPs operate differently than stocks and its important for people to understand that fact. You aren't buying one share of the entire BX entity, you are buying one unit of the publicly traded partnership. That being said I do think most assets under management are under the publicly traded LP, and management is supposedly excellent. But there is a lot of grey area in private equity, it may be more beneficial for BX managers to keep more assets under management rather than selling them, simply because they get paid for the more AUM they have. Basically, you really have very little information as to the operations of the company, and BX may have interests that are not in line with its LP holders. But that kind of risk comes with most financial firms, doesn't mean the stock won't go up. 200% is a lot, but it can happen. Very difficult to do an in depth analysis of the valuation of this LP though.
    Jun 26 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Sell AbbVie And Buy Gilead Sciences [View article]
    ABBV is a better value right now if you look at both companies. GILD is trading at a much higher multiple based on much higher expectations. Both are good companies, if ABBV doesn't acquire SHIRE they will probably make a few smaller acquisitions that will add to the pipeline. Abbott (where ABBV was spun off from) is a dividend aristocrat, and has increased their dividend steadily over the last 20 years. Also, ABBV is now predicted to get more market share than originally thought with their HCV drug. To sell it and buy GILD would be to put all your eggs in one basket. If you like both, own both.
    Jun 25 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Put On Your Shades, The Future Is Bright - Part 2 [View article]
    Yeah I don't think FOX is going to nail sports like they did the news. FOX specifically targeted a viewer base with conservative views for their news outlets. You can't really do that in sports. As long as ESPN puts out a good product, they should remain number 1. The biggest issue is the amount DIS can charge to cable companies.
    Jun 25 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Getting A Good Return? [View article]
    The Disney buybacks were not an attempt to raise EPS because of slow growth. They were deliberate because the company knows that it possesses a lot of future value, value that sometimes it didn't even know it would have! (Do you think DIS execs thought Frozen would be as big as it is??) Management has done a great job and is one of the reasons to stick with DIS through 2016. Not sure what the buyback plan is now, but I hope they continue to buy until at least the $90 range. My only question is, have you accounted for how much the company has awarded in restricted and un-restricted stock options? As performance based compensation for the Board and other employees? I would like to know how many shares actually flowed out compared to being bought back. I only scanned the article so you may have covered this. If you look at the treasury share number on the balance sheet, it may not reflect all of the options awarded if the shares are not registered/exercised. I know diluted EPS should reflect this but it can get murky sometimes.
    Jun 25 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Put On Your Shades, The Future Is Bright - Part 2 [View article]
    I'll be a pretty happy camper if DIS goes up another 80-100%. The business school models do take in a lot of assumptions, but in this case I would say they are fairly reasonable. The percentage chances of Star Wars being a flop are almost nil, even if people don't necessarily love the movie, they will go see it. The biggest factor in the growth assumptions is the subscription rate ESPN charges to cable companies. If the growth in what they can charge there gets a little stagnant it could slow things down. ESPN is a big part of Disney's top and bottom line. Believe it or not, I think a lot of investors still consider Disney to be a stalwart type of investment, they certainly did until around 2011. I'm interested to see what they do with the cruise lines as well as how the Park in China does. The future does look bright for DIS but there are always macro risks that can affect the stock price. In the long term those will always smooth out and growth and earnings should decide Disney's fate.
    Jun 24 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought International Game Technology [View article]
    I'm not familiar with their business but they must have missed out on the huge boom in Macau gaming. If their slots were not being placed into the Macau Casinos, it must be Bally's or some other company. I'm pretty sure that was their problem, they never rode the Macau boom.
    Jun 23 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Alcoa Stock IS Related To Aluminum Prices, Not Just The Stock Market [View article]
    If you have been an investor in Alcoa since 2011, you already know all too well that the stock is tied to the price of aluminum. Management does nothing to hedge against aluminum price fluctuations and it is the reason the stock has not moved until this year all throughout a roaring bull market. Alcoa has not moved because the relative indices were healthy, in fact, it was kicked out of the Dow Industrials because it lagged so far behind every other other DOW stock. Being kicked out of the DOW was great for Alcoa in the end. Now the stock is being traded up because of its growth prospects. I haven't check the number for a while, but the actual book value of Alcoa shares was around $13 when it was trading at 7. So, considering that most stocks trade well over their book value, as long as Alcoa delivers on the earnings front, the company should at least trade around where it is now. I've also read many articles that have said the price of aluminum has bottomed out, (many smelters have closed in China and elsewhere), so its hard to really know until we get some real guidance from management. Alcoa does have contracts with Boeing and many other companies, so despite its troubles, if the general economy does better, so should Alcoa.
    Jun 23 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment