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  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    If you think you are going to stream the NFL season for $80 you are crazy. And who can live without Monday Night Football? Streaming baseball games free is not that easy, you usually have to purchase some kind of package somewhere, and what do you think, the owners of all this content are just going to cave and give it away free or to NFLX for pennies on the dollar? Doubtful. Oh and the whole segment also includes ABC which has possibly the best fall primetime lineup, especially Thursdays. The whole thing is nonsense. Maybe DIS is worth $109. Everything trades at the whims of these analysts who have been proven time and time again to be laggards regarding information. If Iger had just not said a word about ESPN, this entire market collapse might have been avoided, because their earnings report is really what sparked the greater collapse. The author's risk premium is a little low for the market as a whole, but his earnings growth numbers could obviously be much better so I think its a pretty good model.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Load Up On Biotechs? [View article]
    Firdapse may get approval, why has it taken the FDA this long when its approved in Europe? And how many LEMS patients are there out there? The company is selling the drug in Europe and still only has a $300M market cap. That also gives it lots of room to grow, but you want to see significant progress on their other compounds as well. Point is, its not the safest bet on the planet.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands Turnaround? [View article]
    There has been a lot more than noise in regards to companies that are doing business in China. Yes, maybe Macau will get some traffic from people who would otherwise have gone to Las Vegas, BUT, we are also talking about people who have just lost massive amounts of money in the stock markets there. Are they going to go right back to the Casinos after that? Things have changed in China significantly since the last report by LVS. There has been some growth stateside in PA, Las Vegas. But no analyst or anybody else really cares because their "chips" so to speak are now in Macau. It all depends on your horizon, if you can hold for years and years and feel you bought in at a good valuation, then just hold. I bought in at $63 and threw in the towel this week. Couldn't take any more pain when I can just buy it back and make money on the recovery. Lowers my taxable income. Its really the only stock in my portfolio that actually had real events happen that could effect its results.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Load Up On Biotechs? [View article]
    Yeah I'd go for at least mid-cap names over these, and the Big guys, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, REGN. Even BMRN. Much bigger institutional followings. CPRX is interesting, and has some big name biotech funds in it, but still years away from approvals, etc. The author does say to take a look at IBB and XBI as well, so I wouldn't completely crush him here.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Market Tanks, Las Vegas Sands Is The Best Safe Harbor In The Gaming Space [View article]
    Not growth overall, but there is in the U.S. and probably will be sooner than later again in Singapore. Macau is probably dead money right now, but you think its going to stay that way forever? It depends on your horizon. Right now it is probably prudent to trim or cut LVS and revisit before the ex-date in September. Most people who bought in 2014-15 are still sitting on losses and they will sell in this rout.

    OK, so over the next 3-5 years, you don't think Disney with a stable economy can grow 10-15% revenue wise? This myth that ESPN is 50% of their revenues is BS. Its the entire media segment. That includes ABC (Scandal, all those ridiculous primetime shows people love), Disney Channel, etc. And since when had ESPN been a bad word? Do you really think that many people will cut the cord and watch Netflix only? Don't you think the media companies will wise up and probably stop selling to Netflix or otherwise raise the prices they charge for their content dramatically? It takes me a half hour before I find anything I want to watch on NFLX.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    This is not a healthy sell-off. Its a sharp, 22 point drop that is uncalled for. A healthy selloff would have been around 10%. This has gotten out of control.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    You have to have cable to watch it on Apple TV.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    What exactly are you talking about? Considering it is way less than 5x revenue right now, I'd say its completely reasonable. Its also reasonable to expect innovation within Disney and ESPN.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Market Tanks, Las Vegas Sands Is The Best Safe Harbor In The Gaming Space [View article]
    Because they are having growth elsewhere, first of all. Its just that they put the lot of their eggs in the Macau basket. Nobody knows what will happen in Macau over the next year, as I'm sure you know analyst predictions are wrong constantly. Do you think Disney should be selling off almost 20% because of a few downgrades and no real material change in earnings or projected earnings? LVS should not be acquiring anything if they really don't believe in Macau they should be selling properties and diversifying to other countries if possible.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Market Tanks, Las Vegas Sands Is The Best Safe Harbor In The Gaming Space [View article]
    LVS should start buying back stock here. It doesn't look like they will, which worries me.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: 4 Pluses For Outperforming The Macau Competition [View article]
    But China is in total mayhem mode right now so LVS is going to go down until they get things straightened out.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Therapeutics sells Priority Review Voucher to AbbVie for $350M [View news story]
    They must either have something in the works, or feel its valuable enough to hold and be able to use in the future. I think its a proactive good move. Might lower EPS on a GAAP basis but it will be figured into the models by earnings, and obviously won't effect Non-GAAP.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie: The Riskiest Dividend Aristocrat [View article]
    Nothing really new here. The PCYC acquisition was done at a high multiple because it was probably worth a high multiple. I would guess that the insiders at ABBV know a little more about the potential of the assets than we do. ABBV is not the kind of company that is going to buy a lot of development stage companies. So they have to pay a little more. So what? In the end if the revenue streams are there, so will the dividend and capital appreciation.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Disney Should Not Belong In Your Buy-And-Hold Portfolio [View article]
    Two things to worry about with Disney. 1) ESPN and the bundle. How will they continue to grow revenue with the segment and/or make it less important to the top/bottom lines. 2) The timing of the Shanghai Park in China could turn out to be poor. China could be in a much more pronounced downturn than we expect. It seems the new premier is not doing well with the economy. More bad news out of China won't be good for the market as a whole, and less consumer spending in China could mean a slower ramp up for the new Park. Parks are also capital intensive. A weaker Yuan will not be good either for Shnaghai Park revenues. BUT, as I highlighted above, every company has some issues and Disney has much more going for it in the positive direction than negative. As far as I know its still trading at less than 5x sales, even if the trailing P/E is a little historically high. That is compared to a different Disney and companies with sound management evolve all the time.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Disney Should Not Belong In Your Buy-And-Hold Portfolio [View article]
    If you bought Disney 4 years ago you'd be so well off because of it. The company is going to decrease their dependence on ESPN for revenue. Or, they will use their leverage across many media outlets to keep ESPN in households. Netflix does not have enough content to satisfy most consumers. Most of their content is worthless, IMO. They have a few god shows and movies that can be binge watched in a month. Disney (ABC), CBS, and all other major media outlets need to stop giving away their premium content to Netflix for next to nothing. ABC has great primetime shows that people love across the country, but they can wait to watch it for essentially free on Netflix. This needs to stop. Hopefully Iger is not really thinking Netflix is their friend, because after this disaster, they are obviously not.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment