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  • Disney: Outperformance Expected To Reverse [View article]
    Its at about 19x 2016 forward earnings. But they keep beating earnings every quarter. So the estimates are probably low. Even then, compared to some of these new tech companies like Tesla that have a million times more optimism baked in, wouldn't you rather own a company with a proven track record?
    May 8, 2015. 11:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Share Price Rise Is Becoming A Stretch [View article]
    He is talking about cable bundling and ESPN. Considering ESPN is probably the most popular network on cable, I think most people will include it in their bundle. Its $5-7. Still a big savings from the $130 most people pay monthly. ABC also has Scandal, How to get away with Murder and other big time rating shows. The Disney Channel will be bundled with anyone who has kids. And that is assuming bundling is allowed in the first place and becomes mainstream.

    ESPN will still be a major revenue machine for DIS no matter what. But the company does see the risks there, and its why they are probably the most diversified media company in the world. The valuation is low if anything.
    May 8, 2015. 11:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: Outperformance Expected To Reverse [View article]
    DIS has been outperforming DIA since 2011.
    May 7, 2015. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Brilliant Hepatitis C Strategy [View article]
    Well, one thing that may have contributed to Gilead's fall in recent days has been planned selling of shares by insiders. Pretty much everyone in management sold a boatload of shares starting May 1st, as reported by Barrons. They still own a significant amount, but its definitely something to take into consideration. Some of the options exercised were expiring in January, 2016, so the CEO may think we have hit the high for the year by deciding to exercise and sell (probably a cashless exercise) now. Not great, but not surprising as management of companies do planned sales all the time.
    May 7, 2015. 12:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Smashes Q1 Estimates; How Will The Market React This Time? [View article]
    This is true. We have pre-clinical and Ph 1 and Ph 2 companies trading at huge multiples. (Atara, JUNO, KITE) Gilead and Amgen, even the hated ABBV trade at low multiples, when their prospects (not to mention FCF, revenue, earnings, dividends) are much better. Gilead has become a trader's stock for now, but as long as the value is there, it is a strong company to hold. After this earnings pop and now drop, I think the company is going to need a big catalyst that will provide a clear path to sustained earnings growth past 2016 to push it over the top.
    May 7, 2015. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Earnings: Good Short-Term Trade, But Don't Fall In Love With It [View article]
    Maybe at this price you might have missed the big gains over the next year or so, but do you honestly believe Disney has no plan for ESPN, which as you said, is their biggest revenue driver? Other than diversification, they will come up with a plan. How many households are going to want to eliminate all ABC and ESPN programming from their bundles (if that ever happens) anyway? My cable company charges me $5 or something for sports channels (ESPN, NFL Network, etc.). I would certainly not opt out of that. Most people who don't want ESPN probably don't have cable to begin with.
    May 7, 2015. 10:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    I believe they are buying back shares, maybe not as many as before, you can see on the balance sheet or read the conference call, they usually mention it. I would have liked to see a bigger pop on earnings, but with the market in a bit of flux right now, and a lot of positive news kind of priced in, it doesn't surprise me.
    May 6, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Brilliant Hepatitis C Strategy [View article]
    Well, Vince, the biggest gains of the year even in the largest bull years are usually in a handful of days, so I would hold onto some if you still believe in the company, in biotech not everything is black and white, and never will be, in fact nobody really knows what is going to happen in 2016 for any number of companies. If you feel like the risk you are taking in Gilead is not worth the potential reward, I can think of plenty of stocks that to me, are a lot more risky and more popular.
    May 6, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rice Energy Earnings Preview - Short-Term Pain Will Give Way To Long-Term Gain [View article]
    The only reason RICE should do OK in this environment is because of hedging. To those commodity companies that like having a pure price exposure to whatever commodity they are producing/selling, this should be a lesson. Ahem.. Alcoa. RICE has the prime acerage, so it needs to either ramp up sales or just keep on fracking and pumping until nat gas prices trend upward. That may not happen for a while as there is a lot of supply as we all know. But the trend for consumer energy use is trending towards natural gas (as it should be, the US has it, why not use it?) so we will see. I am hoping the trend continues upward as I am not sure how many other catalysts are out there for a small company like RICE other than a) price increases in Nat gas and b) Earnings.
    May 6, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    A stock split MIGHT create a short term pop in the stock price, but, DIS already has a lot of shares and is in the middle of a buyback program if I am not mistaken. Once they finish the buyback, a split could do some good and get more investors interested in the stock. Materially of course, all current shareholders will own the same % of the company they do now.
    May 6, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    Executive comp is an issue at DIS, I would like to see it go down for everyone except Iger who is the real force behind the growth of this company. They have a lot of board members that are on a ton of other boards who really probably add little value to the company. That can be said of many large public companies though. Once you are in the club, you get board seats and benefits that the rest of us can not even imagine.
    May 6, 2015. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    I just threw 100 shares out there as a number. Really, they should require all shareholders to register their shares and put them into a brokerage account, that way they can just wire the dividend out to the various brokerage houses and save money on sending annual reports and dividend payments by making everything electronic.
    May 6, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    Remember, debt these days is almost free money for these big companies. Unless you have cash flow problems, which DIS obviously doesn't, debt is not an issue. The cost of capital on the debt side is very low.
    May 6, 2015. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    Nobody cares if the dividend is quarterly except retail investors. That will not drive the stock higher. Its actually cheaper for the company to pay it once a year because of the enormous amount of shareholders that hold only a few shares outside of brokerage accounts and need to be paid by check. The company has given their reasons for that multiple times. The annual dividend also gives an incentive to long term investors to stay invested. As long as the dividend keeps growing, even minimally, it will be included in fund that require their holdings to have a dividend. People need to stop complaining about not getting it quarterly, really not a big deal unless you are a short term trader. If anything, all that would do is add volatility around the ex date.
    May 6, 2015. 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Dividend: Eliminate It [View article]
    An even better idea would be to get rid of paper filing annual reports for shareholders that hold less than 100 shares. There are a lot of people who own 1 share of Disney which is why they pay the dividend once a year, why waste the money sending them long 10-K reports on nice paper when they can vote their one share electronically?
    May 5, 2015. 04:46 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment