Seeking Alpha

Matt Dale

Matt Dale
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Matt Dale's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Stocks Mixed Ahead of Fed News Tomorrow [View article]
    My guess is that they will print.
    Jan 24, 2012. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman, Keynes, And The Economy [View article]
    My comment and your response have little relation. Please try again.
    Jan 2, 2012. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman, Keynes, And The Economy [View article]
    "Keynes' basic thesis is quite simple and well-known to every businessman – customers are important and if employers don’t have enough of them, they will have to lay off workers and cut back on production."

    These firms never had customers to begin with, they only had credit from an inflationary monetary system that allowed them, for a time, to invest in unproductive businesses. The bust is not the problem, the boom is.

    Your criticisms of the U.S. political system remind me of the commentators in the 1930s praising Mussolini's economic reforms.
    Jan 1, 2012. 08:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Sides On China [View article]
    I noticed you didn't mention the money supply, which is exploding.
    Dec 29, 2011. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Become Of Sears Holdings After Latest Round Of Store Closings? [View article]
    It will be bought by the Chinese.
    Dec 27, 2011. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Wheat Stocks At Highs Not Seen In 12 Years [View article]
    If you look at the gold price of wheat, it is at the lowest point since the 13th century, if not since Jesus walked the earth.
    Dec 13, 2011. 09:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the U.S. Dollar, Diamonds and Gold [View article]
    Did you actually check the numbers on that statement about KO? In January, 1970, the average price of KO was $0.53, and we will index the CPI to 1.00. In December, 1979, the average price of KO was $0.61, and our indexed CPI is 2.03 (meaning the CPI more than doubled).

    Over 10 years, your nominal return was 15.09%, or about 1.42% annually. The Consumer Price Index, however, increased at an average rate of 7.33% per year. In real terms, the value of KO decreased by 43.40%.

    Over the period you would have earned 0.49% in dividends. Meaning your total, nominal investment would have earned 7.58% annually. That is barely keeping up with inflation. Your real return over 10 years would have been 2.24%, or .22% annually.

    However, that only accounts for the CPI. Money supply measures, such as M2 and M3, increased 149.83% and 193.58%, respectively.

    Gold, on the other hand, increased 745.30% over the same period, or 23.79% annually. Adjusted for the CPI, it returned 322.65%.

    During high inflationary periods, stocks are not a good investment. Gold has shown that it not only maintains its price during those times, but actually increases the holder's net wealth.
    Jul 18, 2011. 11:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the U.S. Dollar, Diamonds and Gold [View article]
    The value of gold held by governments (about US$1.5 trillion) has already surpassed the known amount of Euros held in foreign exchange reserves (about US$1.4 trillion).

    If you compare the increase in the price of gold to the expansion of the monetary base, you will see that the price of gold really has not moved from its 1998 level. (More: www.cqcabusinessresear.../)

    If the fiat currency system collapses, the people that bought diamonds, not gold, will be ridiculed. End of story.
    Jul 18, 2011. 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Jamie Dimon Just Sound the All-Clear on Banks? [View article]
    JP Morgue will take a beating the during the next rally in silver. Despite silver's high nominal price, in comparison to the monetary base, it is relatively cheap, and nowhere near its comparable 1980 high point. More: www.cqcabusinessresear.../
    Jul 15, 2011. 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Fears Are a Distant Memory [View article]
    Who had deflation fears to begin with?

    My money is worth more?! Wouldn't that be nice.
    Jul 15, 2011. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 European Bank Stocks to Consider [View article]
    You talk about "pre-crisis" and "post-crisis" as though the real crisis has actually happened yet.

    The problems that the private banking sector had were simply shifted to the central banking sector. Prime example: Greece, where central bank leverage has doubled since 2008, whereas the private banking system has de-leveraged slightly. See more: www.cqcabusinessresear.../
    Jul 12, 2011. 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Mr. Bond, I Expect You to Die! [View article]
    I enjoyed the article. A simple way to show that stocks are not an inflation hedge is to compare the S&P to the CPI during the 1970s: www.cqcabusinessresear.../
    Jul 11, 2011. 04:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the U.S. Dollar Finally Break Its Long-Term Downtrend? [View article]
    I wouldn't be surprised if I began trending upwards, considering the U.S. Dollar was on the low end of monetary expansion between 2005-2010. Comparison chart: www.cqcabusinessresear.../
    May 24, 2011. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trading Week: May 23 - May 27 [View instapost]
    Do you follow the money supply of these currencies at all?
    May 22, 2011. 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Long-Term Investment: Gold vs. Silver vs. S&P 500 [View article]
    Very interesting data, but as others have mentioned, using 1981 as starting point is very biased against gold. It would be similar to starting at 2000 for the S&P.

    What happens if you did the numbers from 1990?
    May 22, 2011. 01:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment