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  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing  [View article]
    Thanks for getting back to me so promptly James. Just to clarify, what is the distinction between a significant slowdown versus a mild recession?

    The second thing is do you see a relatively brief pricing in of the recession/slowdown (since market cycles seem to have become compressed in an exponential manner)? I define "brief" as in a 2-6 month bear market.

    Lastly, do you forsee Europe potentially dragging the market down further (as it presents as an extrinsic shock to the business cycle)?

    Dec 17, 2011. 01:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Monetary Virgin: The ECB's Backdoor Easing  [View article]
    Hey James,

    Assuming the US goes into a mild recession in Q1/Q2 2012 in addition to the European mess, how does this play into your downside estimate of 950-1020?

    Thank you for another excellent article,
    Dec 17, 2011. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The markets are facing a cathartic moment, and heading for "dire straits," warns economist Steen Jakobsen. This European liquidity crisis could bring equity market declines of 20% to 30%, even before the December 9 European Union summit. But from that, Steen says, there will be tremendous opportunity for returns over the next 16 to 20 months as we emerge from the crisis and the end of the downward cycle approaches.   [View news story]
    MM sees a bottom at 750, lots of his friends will be buying at 800, race to the bottom should be relatively quick with compressed market cycles, will present awesome prices to get into the stock of your choice!
    Nov 28, 2011. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is In The Driver Seat, Expect A Downward Roller Coaster For The Rest Of The Year  [View article]
    I sure hope you are right Seth, I am mostly 100% UVXY here (with a sizeable VXX Jan 100 call portion) and am holding until the Europe implodes and the markets follow suit. US Recession+Europe limits the downside for volatility in the coming couple of months.
    Nov 25, 2011. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Treasuries: Time Tested Insurance Against A Stock Market Crisis  [View article]
    I would typically agree with you Erin and go all in TMF (3x TLT) but I do not trust the creditworthiness of the United States.

    While TLT should be okay for this cyclical downturn, the possibility of future US downgrades is enough to scare me into shorts and long volatility instruments as "safer" instruments in a bear market.
    Nov 22, 2011. 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Massive's Missives  [View instapost]
    If we see hyperinflation MM, SPY will be a lot higher than 400 to 750 by 2035, and very likely we would have seen more recessions and credit events induced currency crisis then and as countries after countries including the us default or lose creditworthiness, we are likely to see a different monetary system by then too and potentially have gone through a global war.

    True inflation is about 9% right now thanks largely to qe.
    Nov 21, 2011. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santa Claus Is Bringing A Rally To Town  [View article]
    Forget Europe, US recession coming to a town near you.

    Nov 22nd GDP # will disappoint and you will see a noticeable drop in macro that week.

    Dec 2nd jobs report will worsen and further deteriorating macro to come during ALL of December.

    We bottom out mid week of January 2012 and uptick from then to mid February, the rest of the story remains to be seen with what happens in the next few months or so.

    Add Europe, Potential Stupidity from the US Nov Debt Committee, a highly volatile market, other potential shocks, and bam! You have a once in a lifetime recipe for a neon swan/another major crash.

    Reference back to this months from now.
    Nov 17, 2011. 11:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq Resolves Itself To The Downside On Higher Volume  [View instapost]
    Or Neon Swan! Doesn't have to be so black and white. lol
    Nov 17, 2011. 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch has it wrong, U.S. banks could actually wind up benefitting from Europe's debt crisis, says Rochdale's Dick Bove, He cites two reasons: First, U.S. banks have a relatively low level of exposure to European banks. Second, the problems facing European banks could actually drive business to seek healthier institutions in the U.S. His top picks: PNC Financial (PNC) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB). Both get hit when Europe erupts, but neither are heavily exposed to European banks.   [View news story]
    I want a puff from his pipe!
    Nov 17, 2011. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, Bonds, Papandreou And The Fall Melt-Up Of 2011  [View article]
    a repeat of August/September 2011 or a repeat of 2008?
    Nov 16, 2011. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, Bonds, Papandreou And The Fall Melt-Up Of 2011  [View article]
    ECRI's future data shows a macro bottom around mid January 2012, don't have enough data yet to call the bottom (as either a dead cat bounce or a more permanent thing) as there is a subsequent uptick from Jan to Feb 2012.

    Do your longer leading indicators show the same thing and a potentially violent, macro sustained counter-rally starting around mid January 2012 plus or minus 2-4 weeks?
    Nov 16, 2011. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain sells €2.6B of 12-month T-bills at a yield of 5.022%, up from 3.608% in September and the highest since 1997. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.1. The country also sells €558M of 18-month paper at 5.159% vs. 3.801, with the sale six times subscribed. Next up is a 10-year auction on Thursday.   [View news story]
    Lol, above 7 right now. This market is so on borrowed time.
    Nov 15, 2011. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Slips Back Into Negative For Year  [View article]
    lol, crash is likely for many reasons but why would you want the market to crash? makes one seem like a bad person. many people's 401ks will be hurt.
    Nov 15, 2011. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse sees another 8%-9% upside for the Russell 2000 (IWM) in the second half of 2011, with M&A activity picking up and P/E multiples still near their long-term average. Favorite small-cap names in the $2.5B-$5B market cap range: BEAV, FHN, IACI, PENN, ROC, SIRO, RS, SBH, SPW, TER, TSO, ZION.   [View news story]
    they mean downside? lol
    Nov 10, 2011. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Day after day of wild stock-market swings may have obscured the fact that the S&P 500 has gone almost nowhere over the past three months, Floyd Norris notes. Look at "excess volatility" - and smooth out the rough spots - and you can see whether the market is really backtracking, suggesting an economic shift. Or is a structural shift on?   [View news story]
    We may even go to 1300+ J 457, I do not underestimate bear market rallies (sprinkle in ~ inline data, ST Euro glue package, and extreme volatility--recipe for potential explosive upside). After the next surge up, I will be selling my small long positions and be completely in cash, waiting to short. However, I think markets will be neutral with a upside bias afterwards, turnover may be not be as soon as you think IMHO. It typically takes a lot to dislodge bear market rallies.

    The triggers you are referring to are external shocks which I discount without bad macro. The trigger for last failed rally back in July was bad macro. Trigger will more likely be bad December 2nd jobs report IMHO. Worse than expected November 22nd GDP number will not help.
    Nov 6, 2011. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment