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tobi0040

tobi0040
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  • Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva calls for the ECB to end this thing with "unlimited" purchases of EU sovereign debt. "The ECB has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its mission." This idea is not new to the punditry world, but it may be the first call for such action by a leading government official. Europe romping, Stoxx 50 +2.5%.  [View news story]
    This is crazy. Tough to time this as an investor, but if you read the analysis by Kyle Bass, world debt has grown 12% a year over the last 8 or 10 years while world-wide growth has grown under 4%. How is that sustainable? Lot of debt will be written down in the next 10 years.
    Nov 11 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy J.C. Penney: The Turnaround (And Rally) Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Timmy The Tooth, I could not agree more. They hired a good CEO and the best marketing guy in the business, but the valuation does not make sense. Think about Target when Ackman got involved. Went from mid 50's to 70 on expectations, four years later the stock is in the low 50's. JCP TTM P/E is 55. They could double earnings and still be at 27.5, well above the industry average. Target's P/E TTM is 12, WMT is 14. If JCP is anything, it is a short from here.
    Feb 2 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International's Reported Production: SEC Filings Raise Red Flags [View article]
    Richard, I completely understand. You are not alledging fraud. You are simply saying "YONG could not have sold the plant product it claimed given YONG's claimed production capacity".

    What is your definition of fraud? Seems claiming you sold something you didn't is about as cut and dry as it could be.
    May 12 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Bubble Is Ready To Burst [View article]
    $18 is certainly better than $500. However, projections are next year this company will be worth $200 a share in just cash, not factoring the fact that they will make $50 per share a year. $85 is lunacy.
    Feb 13 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Bubble Is Ready To Burst [View article]
    I believe this stock is massively under-valued. Let's put it this way, the January 2014 Puts at a strike of $205 are trading at $405. I will sell these all day long. If he thinks the price can go to $85, it is a huge opportunity for him.
    Feb 8 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy J.C. Penney: The Turnaround (And Rally) Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Look, no doubt this company is turning around, but this stock has gotten way too far ahead of itself. Apple did great based on far superior products than their competition. It will be much harder for Johnson to duplicate that with JCP. The stock my run up a bit in the short-term, but this is all expectations. They would have to triple earnings from here to be in-line with the industry. I would not tout going long this stock.
    Feb 2 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU shares rise early on following a record Thanksgiving shopping weekend and speculation about the latest plans to save the eurozone, and despite the IMF dismissing a report of a bailout for Italy and a Moody's warning about the debt crisis. Euro STOXX 50 +2.7%, London +1.8%, Paris +3.1%, Frankfurt +2.9%, Milan +0.1%, Madrid +0.5%, Brussels +3.1%.  [View news story]
    The German moves makes sense too, when you look out you see many countries that are racking up debts they can't pay. Debts have grown 12% a year since the dot-com bust, whereas global growth has grown 4%. That can't go on forever.
    Nov 28 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU shares rise early on following a record Thanksgiving shopping weekend and speculation about the latest plans to save the eurozone, and despite the IMF dismissing a report of a bailout for Italy and a Moody's warning about the debt crisis. Euro STOXX 50 +2.7%, London +1.8%, Paris +3.1%, Frankfurt +2.9%, Milan +0.1%, Madrid +0.5%, Brussels +3.1%.  [View news story]
    I don't know about Italy, but I am shorting Japanese Bonds instead. Much worse debt (225% GDP) and worse demographics. Also, the crisis has not arrived so their 10 year bonds are trading at 1%. Kyle Bass and Einhorn are short, both cite interest eating up over 40% of their tax revenue at only 1% interest, if their rates move up they become unsustainable quickly. Tickers JGBS (no leverage) and JGBD (3 x leverage).
    Nov 28 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Japan: Debt Levels Too High To Ignore [View article]
    Who has ideas on how to short Japanese government bonds? 225% debt to GDP, half of budget goes to interest and that is at 1%. Just crazy.
    Nov 18 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls: Unchanged vs. +75K expected, +85K prior (revised from +117K). Unemployment remains at 9.1%, as expected. June growth was also revised to +20K from +46K.  [View news story]
    Both political parties have done a great job creating uncertainty for businesses. Democrats through regulation and Republicans through the debt ceiling debate and other acts aimed at hurting the economy.
    Sep 2 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yongye International's Reported Production: SEC Filings Raise Red Flags [View article]
    Richard, your analysis was based upon normal operating capacity, which any first-year business student knows can easily be increased through over-time shifts. The companies response refuted your claims. Your response that a blogger should follow up with the SEC to find proof of overtime is disingenuous at best. Your profile says you have 15 years of investment experience so you should know that no company makes such a filing.

    Why don't you add your companies name to your profile and attach their reputation to your elementary analysis?

    Have you taken your claims to the YONG, the SEC, or KPMG? Of course you haven't, you keep posing questions to bloggers who are not privy to the information needed to answer your endless rhetorical questions.
    May 13 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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