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I trade stocks, options, and foreign exchange for fun and profit. I am not risk averse and often make short term trades based on technical analysis.
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  • AA Set For Upward Reversal?

    AA has recently been suffering from apparent LME based concerns. However, as we all know AA has done a good job of developing downstream sources of revenue which appear to be in solid growth markets.

    Take a look at the following chart (click to enlarge):

    The recent double test of approximately $8.75 may indicate a short term floor. A turnaround may also be hinted at by the recent upward cross of the 50 day MA above the 200 day MA.

    Risks might involve a change in expectations for the auto or aerospace sectors. However, at this point, I think the risk of reasonable price drops based on LME actions should be baked in.

    This looks like a good point for a speculative play.

    Disclosure: I am short AA.

    Additional disclosure: I currently hold a put and a call option on AA. I may initiate a new short-term long call position within the next 24 hours.

    Tags: AA, Spec, Technical
    Nov 14 9:05 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Sony Speculation: PS4 Launch Imminent

    Sony's recent price recovery, from a drop following the latest earnings report, seems to indicate speculation on PS4 adoption.

    (click to enlarge)

    While barely visible on the chart the early morning indication is that the price will be up again.

    Some things to keep in mind:

    • Sony has a healthy pre-order volume.
    • Sony indicates plenty of ability to fill demand.
    • PS4 pricing is $100 below XBox One pricing.
    • Sony's PS4 and Microsoft's XBox One will get a lot of coverage.

    Also, if you look at the chart above you'll notice that stock price increases in the May/June time period were accompanied by higher volumes. In theory this is also a good sign.

    So, it looks like it's time (or past time) to make a bet. You can go directional or perhaps simply expect a big move up or down. We appear to be at a point where something should happen.

    Disclosure: I am long SNE.

    Additional disclosure: I am long SNE calls at two different price points and two different expiry dates. I tend to hold positions for short periods of time and am unlikely to update disclosure details upon adjustment.

    Tags: SNE, Analysis
    Nov 14 8:22 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Looking At SIRI's Chart

    SIRI has apparently been running in a channel for quite a while now. We appear to be at a point where we can find interesting entry points whether you think the stock will go up or down:

    (click to enlarge)

    If we're going to continue upward the prices on calls are very reasonable. Personally, I am going to keep an eye out for another touch down on the channel bottom.

    With another touch we could be set up for some relatively quick action.

    Disclosure: I am long SIRI.

    Additional disclosure: I an long Jan 17 2015 Calls at several price points.

    Tags: SIRI, Technical
    Nov 13 3:29 PM | Link | Comment!
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  • $AA looks like it's a good point for a short-term spec play.
    Nov 14, 2013
  • $SNE will be in the news from now until Xmas with updates on PS4 vs XBox1 sales numbers.
    Nov 14, 2013
  • $RVBD Interesting early move...
    Nov 8, 2013
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