I have been a professional economist since i was a little boy -- about 75 years. I lived through the Great Depression, watched poor people go hungry and steal used food out of our garbage. I had my $60 in gold nationalized by FDR. I was in the militia at the age of 12. I was drafted into the marines for Korea. I have made several million in my life and lost most of it in badly timed speculations. I do not think anyone can foretell the future. Bet on the worst -- it's bound to happen. Very few young people will starve quietly. Long guns and gold.
I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager.
I began investing in the stock market 2 months prior to the 1987 stock market crash and thus quickly learned about the downside potential of stocks. Only slightly daunted by the rather inauspicious timing of my entry into the world of financial market investments, my interest in the stock market grew steadily over the years.
In 1993, after studying the history of money, the nature of our present-day fiat monetary system and the role of banks in the creation of money, I developed an interest in gold. Another very important lesson soon followed: gold may be the ideal form of money for those who believe in free markets and a wonderful hedge against the inherent instability of the government-imposed paper currencies, but it is not always a good investment.
By mid-1998 the time and money involved in my financial market research/investments had grown to the point where I was forced to make a decision: scale back on my involvement in the financial world or give up my day job. The decision was actually quite an easy one to make and so, at the beginning of 1999, I began investing/trading on a full-time basis.
My major concern in deciding to pursue a career in which I devoted all of my time to my own investments was that I would miss the personal interaction that had been part and parcel of my business management career. The Speculative Investor (TSI) web site was launched in August of 1999 as a means for me to interact with the world by making my analysis/ideas available on the Internet and inviting feedback from others with similar interests.
During its first 14 months of operation the TSI web site was free of charge, but due to the site's growing popularity I changed it to a subscription-based service in October of 2000. Its popularity continued to grow, although I remained -- and remain to this day -- a professional speculator who happens to write a newsletter as opposed to someone whose overriding focus is selling newsletter subscriptions.
My approach is 'top down'; specifically, I first ascertain overall market trends and then use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to find individual stocks that stand to benefit from these broad trends. This approach is based on my experience that it's an order of magnitude easier to pick a winning stock from within a market or market sector that's immersed in a long-term bullish trend than to do so against the backdrop of a bearish overall market trend. Fortunately, there's always a bull market somewhere.
I've lived in Asia (Hong Kong, China and Malaysia) since 1995 and currently reside in Malaysian Borneo.
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J. Bradford DeLong is a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, chair of its political economy major, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and was in the Clinton administration a deputy assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury. You can learn more about his website (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/about_this_website.html/), visit his home page (http://delong.typepad.com/main/), visit his principal weblog (http://delong.typepad.com/sdj).
Founder of Disruptive Tech Research – a technology research and advisory firm serving the investment management community.
We provide registered investment professionals and qualified firms with independent, targeted research to support the generation of investment ideas.
We focus on patent-filing activity to identify the most promising disruptive technology trends early. Then, we employ an original, bottom-up fundamental research approach to uncover micro- and small-cap ideas that are underfollowed, underappreciated and undervalued.
Our mission is to provide clients with differentiated, actionable and thorough fundamental research at a cost effective price.
We’re 100% independent. That means absolutely no pay-to-play arrangements, no hidden agendas and no hype. Just solid research. And yes, we eat our own cooking.
I started my investment career at Morgan Stanley, where I helped direct over $1 billion in in institutional capital. After growing bored with the monotony of asset allocation studies, investment policy statements, manager searches and evaluations, and Retirement Plan Service Provider RFPs (among other things), I left and co-founded Wall Street Daily, which quickly became one of the web’s largest financial publishers with a daily circulation of more than 700,000 readers.
In 2014, I founded Disruptive Tech Research to pursue my investing passion, and fill the void in the market for high-quality, 100% independent research on disruptive technologies.
I have been fortunate to appear regularly on CNBC’s Closing Bell, as well as be mentioned in other media outlets, including in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Morningstar and MarketWatch. I earned my MBA from the Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins College, which is also where I met my beautiful wife.
Pro Deo, Pro Familia, Pro Patria
Ellen Brown is an attorney, president of the Public Banking Institute, and the author of twelve books. Shedeveloped her research skills as an attorney practicing civil litigation in Los Angeles. In "Web of Debt," she turned those skills to an analysis of the Federal Reserve and “the money trust.” She showed how this private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. In "The Public Bank Solution," her latest book, she explores the public banking model globally and historically as an equitable and efficient solution to our banking woes. Her earlier books focused on the pharmaceutical cartel that gets its power from “the money trust.” They include "Forbidden Medicine," "Nature’s Pharmacy" (co-authored with Dr. Lynne Walker), and "The Key to Ultimate Health" (co-authored with Dr. Richard Hansen). Her websites are www.webofdebt.com, www.publicbanksolution.com and www.ellenbrown.com.
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
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Publisher of options newsletter TerrysTips.com since 2001.. Thirty years experience trading options virtually every day. including stint as seat holder and market maker on the C.B.O.E. MBA from Harvard Business School and DBA from Univ. of Virginia Darden School. Author of Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, In Good Years and Bad (4th revision - 2012) and Coffee Can Investing: A Better Idea Than Mutual Funds in an IRA or 401(K), 2014.
TerrysTips.com is a newsletter that carries out eight different option portfolios which many subscribers mirror on their own or through auto-trade at several brokers who make all the same trades in individual customer accounts. Each portfolio offers something different (bullish, neutral, or bearish),and different underlyings (GOOG, SPY, SVXY, and other individual companies).
In 2005, the S.E.C. brought an action against Terry Allen, claiming that he was managing money for people without being a registered investment advisor because of the auto-trade service offered by several brokers who placed trades in their customer accounts based on Terry’s Tips newsletter recommendations. A second complaint was for a single statement on his website that they believed was incorrect and therefore fraudulent.
Although two large law firms assured Dr. Allen that if he went to court on the first issue, he would win because there was a Supreme Court decision stating that investment newsletters are exempt from registration requirements - it would be a violation of their First Amendment rights. However, they estimated that his legal expenses would be greater than settling with the S.E.C. (and a year or two of his time tied up in court proceedings), and both firms recommended that he accept the settlement offer while not admitting any guilt.
The second issue (fraud) involved a single statement that was true when it was written but a couple of years later, option prices fell to 10-year lows, and it was no longer true. The S.E.C. argued that the statement was not removed from the website in a timely enough fashion.
For the past eight years since the settlement with the S.E.C., Dr. Allen has have been publishing the Terry’s Tips newsletter (and recommendations are executed in customer accounts at thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade through their Auto-Trade program), and the S.E.C. has not objected to any of his activities.
Most recently, Markos Kaminis predicted the stock market correction of 2015 through a series of prescient reports in August. (see proof here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3482226-investor-who-predicted-the-stock-market-correction-offers-an-update ) Markos warned his followers to stop buying dips in stocks, raise cash levels for a near-term collapse and special buying opportunity, and he suggested aggressive investors or those in need of portfolio hedge use a volatility instrument to do so. He profited 30-fold in a matter of days on his contrarian view in August.
Markos N. Kaminis generated a 23% average annual return on "Strong Buy" stock selections over 5 years and ranked 2nd among a group of 60 analysts in-house as a Senior Equity Analyst over a seven-year period at Standard & Poor's. After proving his value in-house, he was promoted into a special role as an idea generator, supporting the portfolios of institutional clients as well as driving performance within S&P's recommended lists and portfolios. At times, Markos was responsible for up to 10% of the firm's entire "Strong Buy" list and is due a great deal of credit for the group's outstanding performance during his tenure.
Markos followed a group of 30-40 Small and Mid-Cap firms, and was charged with finding new buy and sell candidates across industry sectors. He generated a 23% average annual return over five years on his "Strong Buy" recommendations, and 26% over three years ended 2004. He was ranked 1st of 60 analysts in-house for his "Strong Buy" performance over 4 years (2nd over 5).
Markos also authored IPO research and wrote for high-level newsletters, The Outlook, Equity Insights and Emerging Opportunities, as well as for BusinessWeek Online. He represented his firm as an analytical expert commentator for major media, including television, Internet and through quotes and interviews in reputable publications.
What I want you to know about my plans: After witnessing the worst of Wall Street firsthand and having the ideal vision of my childhood career choice corrupted by reality, I almost switched to full-time charity work at age 40 and still have plans for a non-profit. However, I've since determined to put my stock selection skills, earned through blood, sweat and tears, to better use, and to make my own way. I've determined to give investors something rare, a dignified partner who can manage money with integrity and a clear conscience about the degree of due diligence behind investment decisions... someone who cares more about your money than your wife. I hope readers will become followers of my column here & at my blog, so that when our numbers are substantial, we might start an investment fund or two.
Prior to his Wall Street career, Mr. Kaminis spent time in the back-office, as a mutual fund accountant, where he managed for a time the work of two men. Before this, from age 11 to age 25, he worked as a carpenter's apprentice and carpenter with his father, in both commercial and residential projects. Mr. Kaminis has an intimate knowledge of the real estate and construction market, as well as the restaurant industry. However, as a generalist stock analyst, he showed the ability to learn any and the most complicated of industries in short time - and he gamed every challenge presented to him.
Mr. Kaminis earned his MBA at the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh, and his BA at Temple University in Philadelphia. However, Markos has been studying the stock market since age 13, when he determined his career path. He made his first investment at age 16, and funded much of his undergraduate education with the proceeds of his investing success.
Mr. Kaminis continues to keep busy forecasting the economic path and securities market activity. Markos is considering the eventual start-up a long/short capital appreciation hedge fund. Such a fund would limit risk through beta reduction, using a diversification strategy targeting sector & industry and long & short position inclusion. At the same time, Markos' theoretical fund would seek maximum capital appreciation through the exploitation of Mr. Kaminis' inherent economic & market discernment gift and proven stock selection skills. Mr. Kaminis also has a team of a select few analysts, technicians, strategists and economists that he has been impressed by over the years, which he expects to tap for the project when the time is right. Mr. Kaminis welcomes your interest in such a potential forward effort, and looks forward to discussing his plans with those appropriate and within legal constraints.
Markos is involved in very early stage entrepreneurial efforts in the testing of certain business models, all of which he intends to tie to a planned non-profit project. The tie will be that the businesses will give employment opportunity to individuals who would otherwise have difficulty finding gainful employment. It will house and heal the homeless, ex-convicts, those completing rehabilitation efforts for drug and other addictions, and others in need of help.
Markos is currently Directing the widely syndicated blog he founded, "Wall Street Greek," and is writing for other well-known publications besides advancing several businesses. Markos' column is syndicated across sites like the Boston Globe, Kiplinger Magazine, UPI and other reputable newspaper and TV websites, as well as private networks, Amazon Kindle, iPhone and more. In the past, he has written for RealMoney.com, Motley Fool and others. Requests to research specific companies are welcome, as we serve our readers. You may contact us via the blog contact info.
Mr. Kaminis welcomes you to follow him here at Seeking Alpha, where he is proud to be a long-time contributor to this strong team of writers. He considers the Seeking Alpha team and management close friends, and for you, people worth knowing and following.
Visit his site: Wall Street Greek (http://www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/)
I tend to focus on good companies that are out of favor for various reasons. I believe that many investments should be looked at in the context of risk, thus offering minimal downside. My coverage experience includes consumer staples/discretionary, biotech, industrials, financials and energy.
I mainly focus on two sectors: technology and auto industry. I am long only and I like to take a conservative approach where I sell covered calls on the shares I hold in order to reduce my risks. Some of the stocks I follow closest are Nokia, Microsoft, Ford and Apple. I believe that being able to see beyond numbers and actually understanding business models of companies we cover is crucial to provide useful insight on companies.
Michael T. Snyder is a graduate of the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia and has two law degrees from the University of Florida. He is an attorney that has worked for some of the largest and most prominent law firms in Washington D.C. and who now resides outside of Seattle, Washington. He is a very active blogger and is also a respected researcher, writer, speaker and activist. You can follow him on The Economic Collapse blog: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/