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Independent blog that indicates if the current trend of the stock market is up or down.
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Brett's Stock Market Pulse
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  • Brett's Stock Market Pulse ( Thursday, June 2, 2011 (Stocks Close Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s May Jobs Report)
    Today was quit a volatile session before the May jobs report is disclosed tomorrow morning at 8:30. Stocks traded in both directions today significantly. At the end of the day the Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ) led the market today with a mild 0.2% gain while the DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) and S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell in small order 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Market breadth was mixed as well with it slightly positive on the Nasdaq and slightly negative on the NYSE. Investor participation was below average which is not unexpected the day before a key piece of economic data is released. Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) was the strongest market sector advancing 0.5% while the defensive consumer staples (NYSEARCA:XLY) sector lagged declining 1.2%. While defensive some of the hit today to the consumer staples sector was because some of its components reported disappointing same store sales. Over the last five trading session all market sectors are in negative territory with financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) being the weakest losing 2.3%. The strongest sector has been health care (NYSEARCA:XLV) still a loss at 0.5%. Based on the current stock market direction today’s activity wasn’t material enough to change the support and resistance levels on the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite in either direction except for the support level on the Nasdaq Composite which is three points higher (see right sidebar). At the low today the S&P 500 came within one point of testing the 1,305 level we have recently been discussing. If the S&P 500 breaches 1,305 then there is not a whole lot of support for it until the 1,257-1,276 levels. Below 2,723 on the Nasdaq Composite there is not much support until the 2,617-2,687 range. The S&P 500 has been range bound not making a whole lot of progress in either direction since mid-February. Tomorrow’s job report could be the catalyst the market needs to move out of its trading range.

    Our outlook is: 1) short term: bearish; 2) long term: bullish

    No positions in securities mentioned.
    Jun 02 10:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Brett's Stock Market Pulse ( Wednesday, June 1, 2011 (Indices Fall Back Below 21-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages)

    Stocks sold off hard today in terms of price action with the DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), and Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ) down at least 2.2%.  Market breadth was materially negative and investor participation was above average but wasn't extremely above recent levels.  The DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closed below their respective 21-day and 50-day moving averages.  Just yesterday the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were sitting above both these moving averages.  Based on the stock market direction action today we are lowering the support and resistance levels on the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite (see below).  The gap up level from 2,801 the Nasdaq Composite created in yesterday's session was easily closed today.  In addition, the low volatility and high complacency environment the market has been showing was challenged today as the Volatility Index (VIX) rose 18.5% indicating fear returned to the market today.  However, from a historical perspective the VIX is a good amount below levels that indicate investors are extremely fearful and there are no sellers remaining in the market.  We are not suggesting anything (something to keep an eye on) but the levels we spoke about in our post from last Thursday could easily come into play if the market is not able to find a base soon. 

    Our outlook is: 1) short term: bearish; 2) long term: bullish

    No positions in securities mentioned.

    Jun 02 8:50 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Brett's Stock Market Pulse ( Tuesday, May 31, 2011 (Major Indexes Rise For Fourth Straight Day-S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Back Above 21-Day Moving Averages)
    Upon returning from a three day weekend stocks continued where they left off from last week to finish out the month of May with gains ranging between 1% to 1.4% on the DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), and Nasdaq Composite (QQQQ). The Nasdaq Composite led the advance. The market was able to do this by shaking off mostly bad economic data as participants bid up share prices. Today’s action was enough to move the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite back above their respective 21-day moving averages. Stocks opened strong today and then experienced some selling mid-morning but by the close the indices were able to close in the upper end of today’s trading range. Market breadth was strong and investor participation was above average. All market sectors finished in positive territory led by technology (NYSEARCA:XLK)/consumer discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) and utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) lagging. As a results, we are raising the support and resistance levels on the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite (see on right sidebar). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite regained their 21-day moving averages which last week was a resistance point for them. Overall, the stock market direction continues to be resilient as investors continue to step in to buy shares whenever the market shows weakness. The Nasdaq Composite did gap up today at 2,809 and in order for it to close the gap it will need to trade down to Friday’s high at 2,801. This will be something to keep an eye on going forward. Right now based on how investors are acting nothing seems to be worrying investors in the market when you look at the Volatility Index (VIX) which continues to show an environment of pretty low volatility and high complacency.

    The action today was positive but enough yet to turn our short term outlook bullish. Currently our outlook is: 1) short term: bearish; 2) long term: bullish
    In addition, over the long weekend we added our market signals (in additional to overall stock market) for bonds, the US Dollar, oil, gold, sectors, and a focus list of stocks we feel exhibit strong fundamentals. Each of these have their own webpage.

    No positions in securities mentioned.
    May 31 10:51 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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