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  • What The Future Holds For Yahoo [View article]
    If you try to develop Google Doc service, you will find it is incredibly difficult. And if you look carefully, most of Google's core assets: Google Doc, Gmail, Google Map, Search, Android, etc., are based on very complex technologies, not fad of the day. This is crucial for long term success. The barrier of entry is extremely high.

    I cannot say the same thing for Yahoo. Yahoo used to be like Google with good technologies. But it was then, about 10 years ago. Now Yahoo is almost completely hollowed out, similar to a "service-based economy without a strong manufacturing base". Chasing fad after fad will only create false hope and dilute shareholder value.
    May 29, 2013. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Future Holds For Yahoo [View article]
    What pedigree does Mayer have, really? She was lately the PR face of Google. Good image, good communication skills, being optimistic, etc. But in terms of execution, I don't see much.

    Tumblr is a waste because (1) it has no technology and (2) it is not in Silicon Valley (or San Francisco). It is a fad.
    May 29, 2013. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed is "very attuned" to QE's unintended consequences, says Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren. The dovish FOMC voter says it would be premature to begin tapering asset purchases now, but a "modest" cut could make sense after a few more months of decent economic data. [View news story]
    I read that Morgan Stanley concluded unemployment rate will not reach 6.5% until 2020 at the earliest. If Fed keeps the rate of buying until then its balance sheet will hit 9 Trillion dollars, or about 50% of GDP.
    May 29, 2013. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Future Holds For Yahoo [View article]
    Unfortunately Yahoo doesn't have much competitive strength other than in a few pockets such as Yahoo Finance and Mail, and its stake in Alibaba. The purchase of Tumblr is a waste of money.

    What you said is fluff. This is not a company in a mature industry, where "streamlining", "cost cutting", etc. can apply to achieve good results. Eyeball chasing with fad of the day is not a sustainable business strategy.
    May 29, 2013. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As The Housing Bubble Inflates: Month 9 [View article]
    Median household income is down from early 2000s levels. With inflation on all other expenses, the affordability of house is rather low, as it is now. If interest rate goes back to historical normal, the housing market will crash again.

    The only difference is that, for the bubble of 2007, Fed balance sheet was about $600B, national debt to GDP ratio is 63%. For this 2013 bubble the Fed balance sheet is $3.3T, national debt to GDP is 105%. We are back to the same house price, with a lot more debt loaded.

    Clearly it is a bubble, because there is not nearly enough real economical value created during these years. This is purely the result of Fed's financial engineering, which is quite amazing though.
    May 29, 2013. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) FQ2 earnings: FY2013 EPS guidance is upped to $3.50-$3.60 from $3.40-$3.60 previously. Operating margin of 8.6%, up from 7.9% in FQ1, down from 8.9% a year ago. PC sales down 20% Y/Y. Printers -1%. Enterprise hardware -10%. Services -8%. Software -3%. CC at 5 ET. Shares +12% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Don't understand either. I don't see any sign the revenue slide will stop. The profit is not sustainable.
    May 23, 2013. 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riverbed: Stretching For Growth Usually Does Not Pay [View article]
    Some of my thoughts:

    1) The insiders have been selling fairly large number of shares consistently, well into the teens. This is in no way a show of confidence.

    2) When enterprises move networking infrastructure into the cloud, using Amazon, Rackspace and other SaaS and PaaS providers, WAN optimization would make much less sense, because in the cloud most servers are virtualized, on-demand, scattered, multi-vendor, and run on standard networking infrastructures.

    3) APM is "grunt work" that does not have much IP. It is like fancy mosaic in a building. If people ditches the building, the mosaic will lose its shine. For example a company's email and documents may be hosted by Google, applications hosted in Rackspace, storage on Dropbox, accounting by Netsuite, CRM run by Salesforce, etc. All scattered amongst various service providers. No centralized and accessible infrastructure for application visibility, and really no need for it either. Performances are dictated by vendors. So it is unclear how OPNET plays out in the context of cloud-based infrastructure.
    May 2, 2013. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
    I think the EV market has come much closer to the tipping point. 5 years from now, prices of EV will be comparable with ICE cars, while range per charge will be much better, say in 150 mile range on average. When that happens, and when gasoline price goes to $6+ per gallon, it is a no-brainer that any two-car suburban middle class family that has a 2-car garage will buy one EV.

    The writing is on the wall.

    Natural Gas won't do it, because NG is inherently dangerous. It CAN explode on collision and high heat. NG is more dangerous than gasoline.

    EV battery, believe or not, is safer in accidents, because the chemicals do not explode, and the heat intensity is lower than gasoline. The fire may take longer to put out. You may need to clean up the hazardous stuff and vapor. But it is hardly life-threatening.
    Apr 30, 2013. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    An important aspect missing from this article is that a giant wave of EVs are coming 2013 and 2014. The new Nissan Leaf, with a much better mileage range, the Smart ED, Ford Focus EV, Toyota Scion EV, Toyota RAV4 EV, Chevy Spark EV, etc.

    The lineup is quite good. There might be an EV tsunami coming in the car market. Tesla as the leader at the high-end can benefit from the overall market sentiment.
    Apr 26, 2013. 02:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment