thannagan

34 Comments

    • The Twin I-Beams of Investment Success [view article]
      300 MPH - Thanks for the Jefferson quote. He was right, and based on the "swidling" that's gone on for decades by the Feds, the "futurity" of the impact is getting closer. Someone else said a few weeks ago that ther is now a price (a bet) on Treasury default. The significance is that it isn't any longer zero. Are we up to the sea change Mr Shaefer decribes? Aug 21 09:43 PM
    • GLD Inventory-to-Price Ratio Is at a New High [view article]
      All of the GLD shares are still in the market. I assume those shares should be backed by physical inventory - regardless of the day's price. Aug 15 12:23 PM
    • Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull [view article]
      It's not just the write-offs (so far), its the apparent guesswork that remaining net asset values have become. Highly leverage companies (banks) exist based on (depositors, investors) confidence in their ability to run a large book of assets with little of their own money (equity). The confidence hit is why market caps are at much lower multiples than the (for now, remaining) book equity would indicate. Aug 15 12:14 PM
    • Bear Market Gold [view article]
      The last I heard was that the miners sell the real stuff. Aug 15 11:40 AM
    • Buy, Sell or Hold: What to Do with Potash Corp.? [view article]
      If the USA continues to poduce 10B bushells of corn and plant over 70M acres per year, you need the POT. I don't see farmers planting less if grain prices back off somewhat. They have to cover huge fixed costs (land, buildings, equipment). Meanwhile, lower oil increases farmers' profits. (Lower UNG increases CF and TRA profits.) Oil and Ag went in tandem Monday, but think this through. Ag products are not a fiat currency, as gold and maybe oil are. I'm looking at calls, not puts. Long Ag, obviously. Aug 05 12:46 AM
    • The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99 [view article]
      Kirk, thanks for the gold/oil addition. Looks like a quick change circa '99 from the 20bbl/oz level to the 10bbl/oz level. Maybe THIS was the mellinium hit that didn't happen anywhere else. Or, maybe we're just unlucky that oil in mined in more troubled geopoitical arenas.
      Or, ......       Aug 04 05:01 PM
    • The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99 [view article]
      Wow. Thanks. Best food for thought in a while. This may help to explain how non-USA/non-$$-oriente... investors (SWF's) view US company values. Aug 04 10:17 AM
    • Buy, Sell or Hold: What to Do with Potash Corp.? [view article]
      Only good/reliable point is to not ONLY own POT in this space. Good luck with the in/out play. Aug 04 10:00 AM
    • The US Dollar Elevator is Going Up! [view article]
      Point of clarity please: What's in the US$ Index? I'd like to get at a better understanding of how it denotes the "price" of the US$. In the end it's got to be becasue of supply/demand, like the "price" of anything else. Based on typical fiscal, monetary and trade policies, there isn't a likely shortage of dollars. Even with trade improving a notch, and fire-sales of some US private equity, the balance of payments is still a huge negative. Aug 03 01:56 PM
    • Is the U.S. Banking System Safe? [view article]
      Good - thought provoking.

      Okay, so, do the hedge funds stay the (recently losing) course, or what? I don't know if they are known for either patience, or individuality. Where do they take their $$$, greed and leverage?

      I vote much more for incompetence and group behavior than fraud and lying on the part of bank/regulator/account... "leaders".       Aug 03 01:24 PM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      Wow. A lot of negativity, folks. Hmmmm... Aug 02 10:43 PM
    • Analyzing Economic Data & The Employment Report [view article]
      The low inventory figures (if they hold up) are a positive for smoother intermediate term economic performance (less bad next quarter(s)). We can assume that a fair portion of the inventory is auto, which may have to be recyled in to smaller cars. So, much of the rest of it will need replenishing, even in a slower economy. Large inventories in a slowdown would mean worse news in the next quarter(s). Aug 01 09:58 AM
    • Flowserve Nearly Doubles Earnings [view article]
      Thanks - good stuff - nice some of this is under the silly radar. Aug 01 09:47 AM
    • Plotting the April Case/Shiller Housing Numbers [view article]
      jackh - They said to "look real closely" - so, look real real real closely! Cleveland is not the only one to flatten or tick up. Jun 24 10:27 PM
    • RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them? [view article]
      Does anyone else hear bottom music in this?

      The "housing market" will be at/near bottom when I (good credit) can buy/finance and rent out a house for neutral cash flow. (Banks will be delighted to assist me do so.)       Jun 19 09:47 AM
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