thannagan

Plotting the April Case/Shiller Housing Numbers

jackh - They said to "look real closely" - so, look real real real closely! Cleveland is not the only one to flatten or tick up.

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

Does anyone else hear bottom music in this?

The "housing market" will be at/near bottom when I (good credit) can buy/finance and rent out a house for neutral cash flow. (Banks will be delighted to assist me do so.)

Why Subprime Loss Estimates Are Still Too High

Thanks for some nice clarification of terms and certain statistics. The author does not go on to indicate the impact of still very substantial subprime losses on mortgage backed secuities or the impact of economic contagion on prime residential delinquincies (mortgages and HELOC's) and on commercial real eatate lending, much of which is associated with housing.

Do Banks Indicate the Stock Market's Direction?

Thank you. Nice to see the metrics.

A New Metric for Valuing Financials

It's official - Financials are the Rodney Dangerfield of sectors.

Subprime Red Flag in Pacific Capital Bancorp's 10Q?

1) Not all CMO's have been downgraded. If this one is still AAA, as the bank reports, then it's AAA. 2) It is not held as a "for sale" investment and does not have to be marked to market. 3) Even if your emotions are correct, and you are not just trying to rationalize your short, what's the amount involved? Is it material? 4) The RAL business is always a first quarter event. This is no surprise to anyone and actually performed better than estimates. 5) What is your support (ie:numbers) to say the loss reserve is too low? I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong, but in the spirit of this site, I'd like some hard analysis and less fear mongering.

Gold as an Investment? Think Again

I feel gold is as valid a measure of relative value as any currency. I don't see the USD going up more than other world values given large continuing federal and trade deficits (not to mention monetary policy infusions). I also don't think the Euro is a consistently better forwad bet than the dollar. Europe can have inflation too. I don't think the world is coming to an end. And, I don't ever have more than 5% in GLD. But, I like it as part of my (currently hefty) cash position. Thanks for some htings to think about.

Rogue Traders and Economic Capital

Chris - I need to read this again - on paper. I print the ones worth studying. Thanks

The Chicken's Guide to Picking Stocks in 2008

Hey there's 3 of us out of the closet. (And, I believe it's a very big closet.)Thanks.

Merrill's CDO Valuation Is Very Interesting

Because a security (CMO or CDO) becomes "unmarketable" doesn't mean it has zero value. The subprime traunches were a small portion of the, albiet wrongful AAA rated, CMO's packaged and sold. And, the subprime defaults, although historically high, are nowhere near all in default. So, is the CMO security worthless? Although essentailly unmarkable, the security is worth something greater than zero - possibly as much as 80 cents or more on the dolllar. Writing them down to the NPV of the interest flow is likely a vast understatement of the NAV, the marketability not-withstanding.

Bear Gets Bullish on Bank Stocks

Reinko is making a lot of assumptions based on 2 data points.

Fertilizer Stocks: Customer Over-ordering Amid Tight Supply?

What does "certain degree of vulnerability" mean? Are we having trouble finding something to actually say about the situation? Farmers are planting crops in their front yards and looking temptingly at adjacent golf courses and highway rest stops.

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

If you are relatively sure that your product is going to be worth more next month (and the month after that, and so on) why wouldn't you 1) do whatever you could to find more to sell, and 2) why would you worry at all about having more on hand - for whatever reason? The stuff is going up in value by the day. And so is the NAV of the owner.

Here's Why Trouble Is Brewing

That FII of $20B is real money - the $576B was just paper (that some used to think of as a monetary asset). No real liquidity (defined as cash and cash-equivalents) was lost in those write-downs.

Why Citi's 11% Coupon Doesn't Mean It's Paying Junk Rates

Good coverage. None of the talking heads have gone into this aspect - not surprising, but still frustrating that they miss the point. Even junk bonds are supposed to eventually repay the principlal. There is no promised to ever repay any of the $7.5B to ADIA.