What's up with the Dollar and Gold? [View article]
Everything, at least the price of everything, is a function of supply and demand. Gold, (even moreso than oil), has a relatively well-known (and fairly limited) supply, now and in the near future. Demand is less well known, but has a number of well discussed facets. US$ and USA Treasuries have very different supply characteristics and likly (increased supply) changes in progress. Demand for same is also endlessly discussed. At any point in time, demand and supply for all of these will dictate prices.
Two Reasons CF Looks Headed for Big Profits [View article]
Why buy back your own stock when its cheap if you can use those funds to buy out an equally undervalued competor - kind of like killing two birds with the same shot.
Annals of CDS Demonization, Michael Lewis Edition [View article]
If you add up the actual cash flow to the league, teams and players from TV networks and attendees, including concession and licenses, its say $2B. If you add up the notional value of all the bets placed in Vegas, all the bookies and everywhere else on who's going to win or cover the spread, or not, it say $200B. CDS's are like that.
Eric - Forget assets. Can you do the same math with current Equity and a long-term average ROE? What does that give us for target market cap at a 13 P/E versus the $204B?
Eric - Good insight. The numbers and math look factual. I feel though that there are two banking industry worlds now, even more so than in past decades - the handfull of very big boys with their very big problems and the other 8000 banks that are not so encumbered. These two worlds get masked somewhat in the industry stats.
Infrastructure Stocks: Hope, Hype, and the Herd Mentality [View article]
Since FLR (and others) are down 60% or 70% from recent highs, the large % increases in the past month have brought them back up to mid-2006 levels and not anywhere near the highs hit in late 2007 or in 2008.
Joey - Good stuff. What about labor costs? How about a Federal bailout appraoch that is a 50/50 match to whatever GM and Ford can get in the open market and on the same exact terms?
Credit Crisis Watch: Are the Markets Thawing? [View article]
Banks, specifically the largest international banks are obvioulsy not what they used to be years ago. They are riskier (for a variety of reasons). Meanwhile, the Fed's target rates are at resession wartime levels. And, for the moment, global fear-and-panic have bouyed the US$ and Treasury values as stores of safety (relative to other alternatives).
Who says LIBOR rates and TED spreads should be any lower. They probably shuld have been inching higher for several years, now. Risk wasn't properly priced into many things in the last few years or the whole subprime ponzi play would not have happended to begin with.
It's the real economy, now, and the resulting ability of individuals and businesses to make debt service payments - not capital markets.
Alcoa: Analyst Downgrades and Price Cuts; Looks Like a Bottom [View article]
Gumby - GM, Ford (UAW, Inc) have been slow to adapt to making what people want/need, and doing so at competitive prices. They aren't failing becasue they are American businesses. They are failing because they are not as competent at what they do as others have been.
AA, BA, GE, AAPL, DD, DE, CAT and many others in the USA are not in that situation. But, they're all on sale right now.
Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work [View article]
If he were playing football, he'd be throwing a "hail mary" pass on every down, mostly punting after 3-and-out, but scoring several touchdowns per game. His time-of-position would be horrible compared to the average opponent. He'd win a couple of games per season - no bowl appearances.
What to Look for in Friday's Jobs Report [View article]
The happy rancher is right. Private investment will fund energy projects that make sense very quickly if they can be approved in our lifetime. Get the Feds the heck out of the way and watch. These will create JOBS, create ADDED tax revenues, improved US$ value, require less governement borrowing, improve the trade deficit and strengthen US political influence globally.
Securities and Exchange Commission and Mark to Market Changes [View article]
Graupma, because of 157 and SOX, the baby has been (and continues to be) thrown out with the bath water. 157 is okay if there's a market. Sans a market, you must divide by zero, which doesn't work well at all. I thought TARP was supposed to help create a market for some of these frozen instruments, but apparently that got sidelined.
Obama Honeymoon Likely To Be Cut Short By Bond Market [View article]
Yes, the accelorated demand for (government) financing will tend to create/require higher prices (rates), except for that portion of funding that is offset by a (significantly) greater supply of "money" looking to go to work. The future financing requirements will happen in the currency of the day, not just with today's money supply. And we know who prints the stuff.
What's up with the Dollar and Gold? [View article]
(Long: GLD,TBT)
Two Reasons CF Looks Headed for Big Profits [View article]
Annals of CDS Demonization, Michael Lewis Edition [View article]
The Case for Financial Stocks [View article]
The Case for Financial Stocks [View article]
Infrastructure Stocks: Hope, Hype, and the Herd Mentality [View article]
Friday Options Update: C, GM, F, GE, CHK, AEM [View article]
Credit Crisis Watch: Are the Markets Thawing? [View article]
Who says LIBOR rates and TED spreads should be any lower. They probably shuld have been inching higher for several years, now. Risk wasn't properly priced into many things in the last few years or the whole subprime ponzi play would not have happended to begin with.
It's the real economy, now, and the resulting ability of individuals and businesses to make debt service payments - not capital markets.
Down 45%, Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Are On Sale [View article]
Alcoa: Analyst Downgrades and Price Cuts; Looks Like a Bottom [View article]
AA, BA, GE, AAPL, DD, DE, CAT and many others in the USA are not in that situation. But, they're all on sale right now.
Ten Reasons to Invest in Florida [View article]
Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work [View article]
What to Look for in Friday's Jobs Report [View article]
Securities and Exchange Commission and Mark to Market Changes [View article]
Obama Honeymoon Likely To Be Cut Short By Bond Market [View article]