thannagan

Dave's Top 10 Reasons This Recession Will Last Forever

We overconsumed for a long time on almost all private and public levels. Overconsumption (aside from moral and political BS) is simply not a productive use of capital. Our credibility (character, standing) is wrecked. Now we are going to pay for that wasted use of capital, and damamged global respect, for a long time and in many ways. The bailouts are temporary pacifiers, resulting from massive political denial. Future generations will be ashamed of our hubris and foolishness.

Will Najarian's Prediction of a Stock Market Explosion Come True?

Remeber, accounting (like economics) is an extension of philosophy, not physics. Whether it attempts to represent earnings performance or asset value, accounting is nothing more than a highly complex and concocted opinion. M2M isn't per se a necessarily correct or particularly accutate method of denoting asset value. This is similar to the false hopes associated with the convolutions of Sarbanes Oxley, whcih has done little to improve the quality of earnings reports - other than to diminish them by the added expense of "compliance". There is nothing sacred about M2M. It may or may not be better than other methods of, or opinion of, asset valuation. What the stock market does tomorrow is even furhter removed from the hard sciences.

Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work

If he were playing football, he'd be throwing a "hail mary" pass on every down, mostly punting after 3-and-out, but scoring several touchdowns per game. His time-of-position would be horrible compared to the average opponent. He'd win a couple of games per season - no bowl appearances.

The Die Is Cast

Wow. All this negativism, some based on reality, but more in "the sky is falling" variety. And then, on the other hand there's Buffet putting his toe in the water. Hmmm ...

The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99

Kirk, thanks for the gold/oil addition. Looks like a quick change circa '99 from the 20bbl/oz level to the 10bbl/oz level. Maybe THIS was the mellinium hit that didn't happen anywhere else. Or, maybe we're just unlucky that oil in mined in more troubled geopoitical arenas.
Or, ......

The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99

Wow. Thanks. Best food for thought in a while. This may help to explain how non-USA/non-$$-oriente... investors (SWF's) view US company values.

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

Does anyone else hear bottom music in this?

The "housing market" will be at/near bottom when I (good credit) can buy/finance and rent out a house for neutral cash flow. (Banks will be delighted to assist me do so.)