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checkinguy

checkinguy
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  • Why I Covered My Gold Short: Is Alice About To Cross The Mirror Into Deflation? [View article]
    Interesting topic.
    - Ok, does gold go up during inflation, yes. The value of real goods (including gold, is worth more because the currency is worth less). So, during deflation, should gold go up? No.
    - Is China the world's largest economy? No. USA gdp 17T, China 9 T.
    - My view. China is exporting deflation across the world. China has an artificially low Yuan. The world economy is lifting the poor in China to middle class. Or the Chinese have done it for themselves.
    So, what are the implications? Everybody is trying to cheapen their currencies to become competitive. In my view, more besides this will be needed to make an uncompetitive economy again competitive. Japan and EU are in trouble. USA has taken a hit, but probably will muddle through in the near term. The others can't believe their luck that the USA wants to start making their currency worth more via higher rates. It won't take too long for the Jackson Hole folks to start making noises of not being too hasty in raising.
    Macro concerns? We are still in technological revolution. Good jobs will continue to disappear. The world will continue to become more efficient, with less jobs to go around.

    Oct 25, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attack Of The Fed Will Continue - Where To Invest? [View article]
    Hi Diver Dave,
    I think he is meaning that the Fed would then continue it's policies - not start tightening at the supposed 2014 q4 or early 2015. (Like you supposed).

    I think this essay brings up a point though. Sector rotation. If money is going to continue to come into equities, I think smart money will avoid overbought stocks - this is a boon for mid and small caps that don't always see lots of action. I think this is where to position over the next while.
    May 20, 2013. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Aren't We Seeing Inflation? [View article]
    China has an artificially set the Rinminbi and has quickly taken much of the worlds manufacturing. This has been good for the folks in China, but has decreased the manufacturing elsewhere around the world. Europe is vulnerable as it has been socializing the longest and has been loosing competitiveness.
    The rest of the world have their collective foot on the gas pedal, (low interest rate) to increase industry. This has only allowed moderate growth in GDP. No overheated economy - no overheated inflation, except in the economies with higher gdp. No overheated economy, no big call for commodities.
    Now everybody is devaluing, basically doing what China has done by not floating their currency.
    May 19, 2013. 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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