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tradermarc

tradermarc
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  • A Watershed Moment For Zillow? [View article]
    This article is pretty thin on substance and gives no reason other than earnings for the "Watershed Moment". You predict revenues marginally higher than consensus. How does this constitute a watershed moment?

    Also, what is your basis for assigning a 40x multiple to arrive at your target price? Any insight here would be helpful.

    While I have no doubt that Zillow is a destination for home buyers, it is hardly the only place. Not sure that Zillow is a must for buyer(s) agents versus a multitude of other options in their local marketplaces.

    I'd be skeptical of Zillow at it's current valuation and agree with you that the way they are growing revenues by increasing their spending isn't a sign of the most healthy company. I'm going to steer clear of this one going into earnings. May initiate a long or short after earnings if it turns out to be a watershed moment.
    Feb 12 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Industry Insider Is Shorting Facebook [View article]
    Justin,

    I'm not a big fan of FB or anything, but I don't see you mention Instagram anywhere in your article. FB main site isn't the only place they're dishing up advertisements. Are the numbers you're suggesting inclusive of their video ramp-up on Instagram? Does the Daily Active Users count include Instagram?

    Thanks,
    Marc
    Jan 16 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Blackstone Bought 16,000 Homes [View article]
    This has to be one of the worst articles I've read on SA. The title is completely misleading and just a plug for a company the author is long. Where is the info on "why" Blackstone purchased 16k homes? Where are they concentrated (what markets)? What sort of margins should they expect? What is the real play here? I agree that the rebound in housing is underway but yhis article is a waste of time.
    Jan 16 09:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iTouch: Apple's Real Weapon [View article]
    I guess this may serve a lower-income demographic than what I'm thinking. It is my belief that most parents have given their kids the "entitlement" of a carrying a phone. It may not be an i-Phone but any phone can text message. And they need it more often than when they're accessing their home Wi-Fi. I can't see this replacing phones for kids. Sorry. I also believe that most people by now are comfortable with their carrier and signing a 2 year agreement to get a subsidize price for a phone. Not saying that everybody loves paying the data plan but you also have to now consider that carriers (i.e. Verizon) are bundling data plans for multiple devices...this should give a nice bump to i-Pad sales and i-Phone sales since each device doesn't need it's own data plan (independent of another device).
    Sep 13 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iTouch: Apple's Real Weapon [View article]
    Really? Come on.

    What can the i-Pod Touch do that an i-Phone can't? Do people really need two devices to carry around that overlap in so many ways? The i-Pod is fairly inconsequential to the overall earnings of Apple, let alone make for a big earnings beat even if it does better than anticipated...

    Any earnings beat of significance will be based on i-Phone and i-Pad sales. Maybe even an analysts miss (Apple will likely beat their own guidance) based on people waiting to purchase an i-Phone 5. We'll have to wait and see..
    Sep 13 09:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Blow-Off Top For Yelp.com [View article]
    Good article. I regret that I didn't purchase Sept dated puts when this topped the other day. I was watching it and then got distracted...It was an easy money maker for those that jumped in! Lock-up expiration coming at the end of August to top things off. May be a decent sell-off w/ insiders cashing out some of their positions...
    Aug 10 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAIC Continues To Expand Its Healthcare IT Business [View article]
    "While this is a small transaction at only $20 million".

    This statement is materially incorrect. The $20 million represents money paid to shareholders after receipt of tax incentives...the actual acquisition was $473 million.
    Jul 23 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Is Transforming America's Food Culture [View article]
    I went in to our local Whole Foods for the first time in a few years this past weekend (Tampa) and you could barely move in there. It was packed w/ people looking to spend too much on groceries including my family. I was looking at shorting this one prior to my trip in but wouldn't even think about it now. No position in WFM.
    Jul 20 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas yesterday became the most populous state to say it won't participate in the expansion of Medicaid or create a health insurance exchange, joining Florida, South Carolina and three other states in rejecting these Obamacare provisions. Medicaid insurers that could be affected by state opt-outs include WLP, WCG and CNC.  [View news story]
    I understand that you believe that everything is a right and not a privilege (which I happen to disagree with) but think about something that JFK said at his inaugural address... ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.

    People need to be productive and have more personal responsibility and stop feeding off of broken policies that allow them to be deadbeats.

    Healthcare needs to be decoupled from employment and people need the ability to make their own choices and select the insurance that fits their needs and lifestyle. Competition shouldn't be limited to a few giants in any given state but many that can compete accross state lines. Employers shouldn't be burdened w/ bearing the weight of insuring the health of their employees.
    Jul 10 03:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wellcare Health Surges: What You Need To Know [View article]
    Good article but I'd consider owning this one before their next earnings announcement on Aug 3rd. They have blown away analysts expectations for the past several quarters and the stock has surged as high as $74 after such reports. This stock still has room to run. Any pullback below $60 is a definite place I'll be adding to my calls.
    Jul 10 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas yesterday became the most populous state to say it won't participate in the expansion of Medicaid or create a health insurance exchange, joining Florida, South Carolina and three other states in rejecting these Obamacare provisions. Medicaid insurers that could be affected by state opt-outs include WLP, WCG and CNC.  [View news story]
    This is why... http://bit.ly/5BsyVl People that work are paying for all of the people who don't...but even then can't keep the deficit from growing. The US dollar will ultimately collapse...when? Who knows.
    Jul 10 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese smartphone shipments rose 164% Y/Y in Q1 to 33.1M, estimates Gartner. Those figures contrast sharply with the decelerating growth seen in the U.S. and Europe. The iPhone (AAPL) is believed to have made up 17.3% of shipments, and Android (GOOG) devices 69.5%. Separately, the Chinese government estimates 107M of the 190M phones shipped domestically in Q1 were 3G models - that's a positive for baseband chipmakers QCOM and MRVL.  [View news story]
    It's funny how this commentary always plays Google vs. Apple as if Google makes the phones... Google is an operating system. Apple is a hardware manufacturer that also makes an operating system. Not exactly the same comparison.
    Jul 9 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Microsoft Just Leapfrogged Apple? [View article]
    @davel
    I agree w/ your analysis of playing nice with your friends, but at some point you need to make an executive decision when your competition (referring to Apple here and to a much lesser degree, Google) is eating into your main business (enterprise). Apple has taken the approach of making products for consumers and those consumers often are the same people that work in enterprises using PC. Since employees are consumers and most now have smartphones, their employers often have to support Apple products (the boss' even are buying Apple products). I think this has forced MSFT to respond since none of their partners have been able to make any significant progress against Apple. I don't know much about the server space so I can't speak to that point.
    Jun 21 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Microsoft Just Leapfrogged Apple? [View article]
    MSFT made this move b/c Apple is eating their partners' lunch and thus taking potential profits from MSFT. The Surface looks like a worth iPad competitor and will likely have tons of app developers working diligently on Windows-based apps. This is great news for MSFT investors and bad news for HP and Dell. Apple has proven that a company can be successful as a hardware and software vendor as proven by their $100B+ cash hoard! Nice move MSFT!
    Jun 20 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV: To Infinity And Beyond [View article]
    I agree with this but I'm sure that Apple already will have this problems solved by the time they sell their first iTV. The hardware does nothing without getting the content piped in.

    Apple should create a deeper and wider moat by controlling the service for phone and web, their customer base will buy directly from them. No more worries about frivolous fees being charged by Verizon, AT&T or worries about subsidy cuts. With all of their cash, they could build their own or buy it.

    As for content...content is king. Apple will need a way to lure content producers away from traditional cable or form strong ties with cable companies (which isn't likely). Like you said, they may need to wait until there are millions of iTV's in living rooms before they pipe content in directly.
    Jun 20 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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