Saul Sterman

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Regarding Huntsman (HUN), see article beneath 2008 chart here:
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

As stated in article, no position was taken in this arbitrage. As the title suggests, there were just too many question marks popping up. Upon this last earnings miss, Apollo called a MAC yesterday effectively nullifying the acquisition agreement. There may NOT be a break-up fee though HUN has gone to court!

HUN should have negotiated a new price tag though the whole scenario is very problematic as certain shareholders already cashed out. This deal looks dead; funeral dance (courts) to follow.

Saul Sterman

Microsoft's Current Situation: Like IBM in the '80s

You missed the point and confirmed both the author’s assertion and the culture comment posted above.

No one is saying that Apple will replace MSFT today. The point is that MSFT is putting all of its eggs in one basket and every attempt to diversify has met with failure because its approach is from a monopolistic skew.

No one can build from the top down. New markets are built from the bottom up. If MSFT can repeat its success story again, then and only then will it have a new monopoly.

The “we are the biggest and best” syndrome is what cut Big Blue down to size. The same is happening to MSFT. If I didn’t care about MSFT or ‘have a bone to pick with Microsoft’ I wouldn’t bother writing about it.

Microsoft's Current Situation: Like IBM in the '80s

I agree.

Once MSFT burns through the first 20 billion, I hope they wise up before dumping the second 20.

MSFT could have bought 5 companies (like Electronic Arts) by now and start building a new empire from the bottom up. The culture problem is that they are so used to being a monopoly that they have forgotten the meaning of hard work.

Disclosure: This is my personal opinion and may not reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
www.crossprofit.com

CNBC's Google Clickfraud Video (GOOG)

Below is the first response by Google to a series of e-mail correspondence between CrossProfit and Google. We have ceased advertising on Google as we are convinced that we are victims of click fraud. Google’s final 'conclusion' was the opposite.

>>&g...

Hello Saul,

Thank you for your email. I understand you are concerned about potential
invalid click activity in your account. In this response I would like to
1) explain the protection strategies we have in place to combat any
invalid clicks, 2) steps you can take to prevent invalid clicks and 3)
outline the information you can provide us to further investigate your
concerns.

1) HOW GOOGLE DETECTS INVALID CLICKS

Google's proprietary technology analyzes clicks in an attempt to determine
their validity. Our system looks for invalid clicks that fit a pattern
intended to artificially drive up an advertiser's clicks or a publisher's
earnings. The goals of our system are to automatically identify clicks
generated by unethical users and automated robots and to filter out these
clicks before they ever reach your reports. Google has three powerful
tools for protecting your clicks:

- Detection and filtering techniques: Each click on an AdWords ad is
examined by our system. Google looks at numerous data points for each
click, including the IP address, the time of the click, any duplicate
clicks, and various other click patterns. Our system then analyzes these
factors to try to isolate and filter out potentially invalid clicks.

- Advanced monitoring techniques: Google uses a number of unique and
innovative techniques for managing invalid click activity. We can't
disclose details about the software, except to say that we're constantly
working to expand and improve our technology.

- The Google team: In addition to our automated click protection
techniques, we have a team that uses specialized tools and techniques to
examine individual instances of invalid clicks. When our system detects
potentially invalid clicks, a member of this team examines the affected
account to glean important data about the source of the potentially
invalid clicks.

HOW GOOGLE HANDLES INVALID CLICKS

Google actively implements the techniques described above in order to
combat invalid click activity. Clicks that Google believes are invalid are
filtered from your reports. In addition, we apply the following policies
for the protection of AdWords advertisers:

- If we believe that you've been charged for invalid clicks in the past
two months, you'll receive a credit in your account. This credit will
appear as an 'Adjustment' on the 'Billing Summary' page of the 'My
Account' section in your AdWords account. (Other types of credits, such as
promotional credits and overdelivery credits, may also be labeled
'Adjustment.')

- Any advertiser or publisher participating in invalid click activity or
any related offense may be subject to legal prosecution and/or other
action. We will also take the appropriate action on any related
account(s).

2) PREVENTIVE MEASURES

Tracking URLs can help you identify all the traffic that comes from Google
(or other sources) to your website. Once you know the sources of your
clicks, it's easier to track which keywords generate sales and give you
the best return on investment. To learn more about using tracking URLs,
visit https://adwords.google...

If you believe your account reports reflect click activity that is more
extreme than ordinary user behavior or that exhibits strange patterns,
please visit
https://adwords.google... for
more information and instructions on how to contact us.

3) INFORMATION YOU CAN PROVIDE US TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER

We have a team that investigates invalid click activity on a case-by-case
basis. Including some or all of the following information may help
expedite their time-intensive investigation:

1. The campaign(s), Ad Group(s), and/or keyword(s) associated with the
suspicious clicks.
2. The date(s) and time(s) of the suspicious click activity.
3. Any data in your weblogs or reports that indicate suspicious IP
addresses, referrers, or requests.
4. A paragraph describing the trends in logs and/or reports that led
you to believe the click activity is invalid.

The verification and research process can be time consuming, and we
appreciate your patience while our investigation team reviews your
account. Please allow 3-5 business days for us to respond. If you have any
additional information, please be sure to let us know so we can include it
in our review.

I do hope you find this information helpful and that our protection
resources alleviate your concerns. However, if you are still concerned
that you are experiencing invalid clicks, please reply directly to this
message with the required information and I will escalate this matter to
our team.

We look forward to providing you with the most effective advertising
available.

Sincerely,

David
The Google UK AdWords Team


----------------

Original Message Follows:
----------------------...
From: [e-mail]
Subject: Possible click fraud
Date: Fri, 02 Jun 2006 15:56:06 -0000

apps5.oingo.com/apps/d......

Please make sure that we are not being victimized by this site.


Language: xx
AdsUserLocale: xxxxx
Source: xxx
topic: xxxx
Name: Saul C. Sterman
aw_user: xxx
AdWords_Email: [e-mail]
Customer_ID: xxx-xxx-xxxx

>>&g...