The 1 Company That Could Untie The Vodafone/Verizon Gordian Knot [View article]
Excellent proposition - and singularly unique perspective Esekla. The clincher, I don't think VOD will "man-up". And, I rightfully question if they have the executive suite talent to compete head on with Big Red and the namesake of legacy, AT&T in the big ballpark.
But ripe for "disruption", again prescient thinking. Thank you for the analysis.
Short-Term Bearish On Brent Prices, Exciting Long-Term Energy Outlook [View article]
Ms. Lin, good to see you back again writing! Your first essay was, I believe, my own first blog commentary on SA. I hope it has been as excellent and as enlightening and educational experience for you too as I.
So a question: How do you, therefore, perceive the large integrated and E&P entities faring with there own individualized resource ownership, management and strategic allocation both in terms of CapEx, expenses and of course FCF going forward in the short and long term measure that you have discussed within? I realize this is probably too global an inquiry, so, why not make this more specific, for example, to one or more of the same: STO, (because of your excellent previous focus), or XOM (because it is the "capital giant"), CVX, (possibly the best run major of the majors presently), RDS, (new CEO unlocking value away from high cost long-term investments), COP (unique divestiture's internationally providing domestic focus in Eagle Ford, Bakken, leading to continued solid dividend support by return of value to shareholders etc.,) , E (because of your aforementioned admiration of the prescient CEO), TOT (beaten down integrated global "titan" in a high tax anti-business environment with potentially dwindling reserves and alternative energy focus etc.).
I guess what I'm advancing is a micro-focus rather that a holistic global analysis to apply your (good) thesis advanced. To that end, I look forward as a reader to your reply in this regard.
Vodafone (VOD +0.3%) views its Verizon Wireless stake as a more attractive long-term asset than its slumping European ops, and is thus loath to sell it, argues Bernstein's Robin Bienenstock in the wake of the carrier's FQ4 report (included major Y/Y drops in Italian/Spanish revenue). Bienenstock, no stranger to throwing cold water on deal expectations, also thinks Vodafone's remarks about keeping its new $3.15B VZW distribution are a sign Verizon (VZ -1.3%) won't be issuing fresh distributions in the near-term; recent comments from Verizon's CFO also back this up. [View news story]
Thank you Esekla for your hard work and consideration; I look forward to a read, and then a re-read of your analysis.
Why ConocoPhillips, With Over 4% Dividend Yield, Is On My Buy List [View article]
Thank you Martin. I too am long COP and several integrated giants, both domestic and international. If your article is 'like' others, it is as stated previously, it is because intelligible (and independent) observers see similar market conditions.
Look forward to future follow-ups. Tangentially, what do think of firms such as Statoil, Total, or ENI?
Vodafone (VOD +0.3%) views its Verizon Wireless stake as a more attractive long-term asset than its slumping European ops, and is thus loath to sell it, argues Bernstein's Robin Bienenstock in the wake of the carrier's FQ4 report (included major Y/Y drops in Italian/Spanish revenue). Bienenstock, no stranger to throwing cold water on deal expectations, also thinks Vodafone's remarks about keeping its new $3.15B VZW distribution are a sign Verizon (VZ -1.3%) won't be issuing fresh distributions in the near-term; recent comments from Verizon's CFO also back this up. [View news story]
I look forward, again, Esekla, to your future insight into which way VOD will go given its unique business position.
ConocoPhillips (COP +0.7%) is pulling back its plans to sell Canadian oil sands assets in Alberta after it exceeded its target for raising capital by divesting energy properties elsewhere in the world, The Globe and Mail reports. COP is the latest energy company to hold on to assets it planned to divest amid a disappointing environment for selling Canadian oil reserves. [View news story]
Sounds to me like another prudent decision by CEO Ryan Lance while at the helm. Keep up the good work skipper.
Vodafone (VOD): FQ4 organic service revenue -4.2% (in line, but worst quarterly drop on record): -12.8% in Italy and -11.5% in Spain. Impairment charge of £1.8B in Italy, bringing total impairments for Spain and Italy to £7.7B for the full year during which sales were down 4.2%, to £44.4B and core earnings were off 3.1% to £13.3B. Adjusted operating profit beats, rising 9.3% to £12B. The company said it will keep its 45% share of Verizon's (VZ) dividend payment to shore up operations. [View news story]
So Esekla, I for one agreed with your sharp insight on all the VOD issues you have raised. However, the question is, (besides respectfully blowing off VZ's abusive tactics and horrific low-ball offer that would further cripple VOD), what broad strategies should they effectuate with a still collapsing Europe and the India/Essar debacle??? I really am at a loss to see how they are going to improve their market situation in the short term.
What If Energy Stocks Join The Rally? [View article]
Micheal,
I do enjoy your intelligent analysis and insight. I too was an engineer in my former life, but am now am a teacher. I agree 100% on your take concerning natural gas versus the ephemeral lack of output associated with solar, wind power.
As for your call on domestic energy, I agree totally, COP and the up/down stream integrated giants are safe havens for growing capital and accumulative dividends (COP, XOM. CVX, PSX). I too see the long term potential in STO, continue to accumulate on dividend payouts and dips and am not overly concerned about the investigation issue. Norwegian taxes being raised is a disappointment, hopefully a greater market flow - free of 38% Nor. government control and importantly dividend adjustment (to 2 or 4 a year) can bring this well directed company the market rewards it deserves based on performance.
In the mean time COP continues to stealthily be inching-up. I am wondering if I have missed the boat on adding more to it...
Why AT&T Is An Income And No Growth Story [View article]
A lot of sober and somber news for AT&T on SA these days. Hopefully T can weather the storm of change successfullly for those us who rely in part on those consistent dividends. The lack of Cap-ex spending and the omni-present threat that Google presents to everyone who is a technology investor is a reasonable concern.
I like many long term investors are aware and watching, but will not react in a knee-jerk response to sell shares.
The deal may be far from done, but that hasn't stopped analysts from spending (in their heads anyway) the theoretical $100B+ cash hoard Vodaphone (VOD) would be sitting on in the event Verizon (VZ) buys out VOD's 45% Verizon Wireless stake. "What they should do is a dramatic rethink of the business," a Bernstein analyst tells Bloomberg. One possibility: acquisitions, such as Kabel Deutschland Holding and/or Liberty Global, KBC asset management says. Even if the company returned half of the cash from a potential deal to shareholders, it would still be left with $62B, including what it currently has on its books. [View news story]
"Theoretical" is the only way this febrile 'deal' will pass muster with VOD's shareholders - with of course a heavy dose of VZ's bullying/fantasy price of $100B, and the greedy palm rubbing of the international banking consortium's.
Verizon Gets In Position To Punt Vodafone From Verizon Wireless [View article]
Aaah yes!
So correct hacimo! But, your talking about VOD's management - and that is why the bullying (on VZ's part) and the ensuing "discussions" have been taken seriously by Mr. Market to begin with. The VOD management team are historic underachievers, and know this they have better than six-sigma reliability into how to make imprudent and unwise market decisions.
Major oil producers launch a joint program to beef up their Arctic oil spill response plan in a bid to convince the Arctic Council they are ready for large-scale development in the region. There are plenty of doubters, of course, and incidents such as BP 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill and Shell's recent problems north of Alaska with two drill ships don't help. [View news story]
Native American's in Canada's NW Territory and more importantly Nunavut will have domestic and international remedies at law. And there are Native American's around Point Barrow, AK too. Also, potentially Greenland (Denmark) and Spitsbergen Is.(Norway).
Pooh-pooh these repercussions, but their still will be the devil to pay when the inevitable "oh-oh" occurs.
Fitch Ratings warns of massive fines along the lines of UBS' $1.5B Libor settlement if an EC probe into oil price manipulation finds any wrongdoing. While oil company balance sheets likely would absorb any fines thanks to big cash reserves, an offender "could face longer-term risks from damage to reputation," Fitch says, noting BP's exclusion from some business in the Gulf of Mexico after the Macondo spill. [View news story]
True enough that rating agencies have zero credibility. Still their big banking buddies whisper to them and back-n-forth, and unfortunately they probably have friends in Brussels and the EU. Thus the 'leak'...
That said, investors wouldn't be surprised about ENI, but STO's high ethics Norwegian credibility could be significantly diminished at a time this stock needs a positive confidence jolt in the marketplace.
The 1 Company That Could Untie The Vodafone/Verizon Gordian Knot [View article]
But ripe for "disruption", again prescient thinking. Thank you for the analysis.
Short-Term Bearish On Brent Prices, Exciting Long-Term Energy Outlook [View article]
So a question: How do you, therefore, perceive the large integrated and E&P entities faring with there own individualized resource ownership, management and strategic allocation both in terms of CapEx, expenses and of course FCF going forward in the short and long term measure that you have discussed within? I realize this is probably too global an inquiry, so, why not make this more specific, for example, to one or more of the same: STO, (because of your excellent previous focus), or XOM (because it is the "capital giant"), CVX, (possibly the best run major of the majors presently), RDS, (new CEO unlocking value away from high cost long-term investments), COP (unique divestiture's internationally providing domestic focus in Eagle Ford, Bakken, leading to continued solid dividend support by return of value to shareholders etc.,) , E (because of your aforementioned admiration of the prescient CEO), TOT (beaten down integrated global "titan" in a high tax anti-business environment with potentially dwindling reserves and alternative energy focus etc.).
I guess what I'm advancing is a micro-focus rather that a holistic global analysis to apply your (good) thesis advanced. To that end, I look forward as a reader to your reply in this regard.
Thank you again for your contributions.
Statoil Expands Its Worldwide Footprint [View article]
Vodafone (VOD +0.3%) views its Verizon Wireless stake as a more attractive long-term asset than its slumping European ops, and is thus loath to sell it, argues Bernstein's Robin Bienenstock in the wake of the carrier's FQ4 report (included major Y/Y drops in Italian/Spanish revenue). Bienenstock, no stranger to throwing cold water on deal expectations, also thinks Vodafone's remarks about keeping its new $3.15B VZW distribution are a sign Verizon (VZ -1.3%) won't be issuing fresh distributions in the near-term; recent comments from Verizon's CFO also back this up. [View news story]
Why ConocoPhillips, With Over 4% Dividend Yield, Is On My Buy List [View article]
Look forward to future follow-ups. Tangentially, what do think of firms such as Statoil, Total, or ENI?
Vodafone (VOD +0.3%) views its Verizon Wireless stake as a more attractive long-term asset than its slumping European ops, and is thus loath to sell it, argues Bernstein's Robin Bienenstock in the wake of the carrier's FQ4 report (included major Y/Y drops in Italian/Spanish revenue). Bienenstock, no stranger to throwing cold water on deal expectations, also thinks Vodafone's remarks about keeping its new $3.15B VZW distribution are a sign Verizon (VZ -1.3%) won't be issuing fresh distributions in the near-term; recent comments from Verizon's CFO also back this up. [View news story]
ConocoPhillips (COP +0.7%) is pulling back its plans to sell Canadian oil sands assets in Alberta after it exceeded its target for raising capital by divesting energy properties elsewhere in the world, The Globe and Mail reports. COP is the latest energy company to hold on to assets it planned to divest amid a disappointing environment for selling Canadian oil reserves. [View news story]
disc.: long COP
What If Energy Stocks Join The Rally? [View article]
Vodafone (VOD): FQ4 organic service revenue -4.2% (in line, but worst quarterly drop on record): -12.8% in Italy and -11.5% in Spain. Impairment charge of £1.8B in Italy, bringing total impairments for Spain and Italy to £7.7B for the full year during which sales were down 4.2%, to £44.4B and core earnings were off 3.1% to £13.3B. Adjusted operating profit beats, rising 9.3% to £12B. The company said it will keep its 45% share of Verizon's (VZ) dividend payment to shore up operations. [View news story]
Ideas? Thanks again.
What If Energy Stocks Join The Rally? [View article]
I do enjoy your intelligent analysis and insight. I too was an engineer in my former life, but am now am a teacher. I agree 100% on your take concerning natural gas versus the ephemeral lack of output associated with solar, wind power.
As for your call on domestic energy, I agree totally, COP and the up/down stream integrated giants are safe havens for growing capital and accumulative dividends (COP, XOM. CVX, PSX). I too see the long term potential in STO, continue to accumulate on dividend payouts and dips and am not overly concerned about the investigation issue. Norwegian taxes being raised is a disappointment, hopefully a greater market flow - free of 38% Nor. government control and importantly dividend adjustment (to 2 or 4 a year) can bring this well directed company the market rewards it deserves based on performance.
In the mean time COP continues to stealthily be inching-up. I am wondering if I have missed the boat on adding more to it...
Keep writing Michael! Thanks again.
Why AT&T Is An Income And No Growth Story [View article]
I like many long term investors are aware and watching, but will not react in a knee-jerk response to sell shares.
The deal may be far from done, but that hasn't stopped analysts from spending (in their heads anyway) the theoretical $100B+ cash hoard Vodaphone (VOD) would be sitting on in the event Verizon (VZ) buys out VOD's 45% Verizon Wireless stake. "What they should do is a dramatic rethink of the business," a Bernstein analyst tells Bloomberg. One possibility: acquisitions, such as Kabel Deutschland Holding and/or Liberty Global, KBC asset management says. Even if the company returned half of the cash from a potential deal to shareholders, it would still be left with $62B, including what it currently has on its books. [View news story]
Verizon Gets In Position To Punt Vodafone From Verizon Wireless [View article]
So correct hacimo! But, your talking about VOD's management - and that is why the bullying (on VZ's part) and the ensuing "discussions" have been taken seriously by Mr. Market to begin with. The VOD management team are historic underachievers, and know this they have better than six-sigma reliability into how to make imprudent and unwise market decisions.
Res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself.
Major oil producers launch a joint program to beef up their Arctic oil spill response plan in a bid to convince the Arctic Council they are ready for large-scale development in the region. There are plenty of doubters, of course, and incidents such as BP 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill and Shell's recent problems north of Alaska with two drill ships don't help. [View news story]
Pooh-pooh these repercussions, but their still will be the devil to pay when the inevitable "oh-oh" occurs.
Fitch Ratings warns of massive fines along the lines of UBS' $1.5B Libor settlement if an EC probe into oil price manipulation finds any wrongdoing. While oil company balance sheets likely would absorb any fines thanks to big cash reserves, an offender "could face longer-term risks from damage to reputation," Fitch says, noting BP's exclusion from some business in the Gulf of Mexico after the Macondo spill. [View news story]
That said, investors wouldn't be surprised about ENI, but STO's high ethics Norwegian credibility could be significantly diminished at a time this stock needs a positive confidence jolt in the marketplace.