Why Target Frontier And Emerging Markets? [View article]
Jon this is an excellent view from 40000 feet of frontier markets. I have been reading your stuff but as a novice to foreign investments I have had a hard time figuring out why I should care about mongolia, Sri Lanka and other frontier markets, when on the surface they appear to be ants in the global macro-economy that itself is perilous. But you brought the idea into view clearly for me with this piece. The frontier markets that have escaped debt and are working to put forth pro-growth polices have a great opportunity for excellent growth over the next decade, while the BRIC and developed countries grapple with economies stifled from too much debt.
It was laid out plain enough that I feel like I know what I am looking for now at least a little bit and I will be able to pull even more valuable information out of your other articles. Keep up the great work. Thanks.
OECD Analysis Suggests That Electric Cars Are Not Ready For Prime Time [View article]
Nick, I agree with the absolutely absolutes, but I think if anything society has accepted the premise that EV's are cleaners than HEV's or ICE's without digging too deep. Here we have an analyst from the OECD saying wait a minute not-so-fast. I think the side with the closed mind that needs to be opened up is the side that has automatically made these assumptions only because they have been brought up in an environment indoctrinated to hate oil/fossil fuels first without really examining what the alternatives are.
Here is a book that might be very interesting and one I will be ordering. Perhaps you have heard of it "Green Illusions". I am not sure I will agree with everything in it but he explains how the solar industry is the leading emitters of three gases that have a global warming potential several thousands of times higher than CO2.
I am just using this as an illustration of societies attempt to trade one thing for another in our attempt to be "clean", only because we were told to hate the former. Most quasi-environmentalists are not really taking into account the extraordinary amount of potentially harmful real world side-effects of our new "green" technologies.
OECD Analysis Suggests That Electric Cars Are Not Ready For Prime Time [View article]
"First the available EV's are overweight, overpriced and , overteched making them only a little better in the short term but as gas/oil rises as it must, even these badly done designs are more cost effective over 5-7 yrs once all costs are included.
What we need are composite bodied lightweight EV's using industural EV drive, "
A Scandinavian outfit called Th!nk was working on trying to sell a car like you describe for two decades in Europe and went bankrupt four times, the last time they brought down Ener1 with them. Their has been work going on for lightweight little peanut-mobiles for decades in Europe where gas prices are twice the US's and subsidies are given out like candy to babies, yet the tiny composite wee-EV's still have not flown out of the coup of dismal economics. Here is to wishing though.
You are on to one thing; the smaller and lighter the device the more efficient it is to be all-electric. For now though those electric engines called batteries will be relegated to my power tools and cell phones, because that is what they are good for. I may take one in my push lawn mower though as well.
Micro-Hybrids And The Multi-Billion Dollar Battery Battle [View article]
"You're entirely right that none of this matters until someone actually builds and begins to sell one."
I should just leave it at that but I can't seem to keep my mouth shut... You refuse to acknowledge the realities of introducing a new commercial product to huge markets. You can make almost anything look doable with some paper and pen. I have seen hundreds of guys in lab coats make things look great on paper but I have not seen any of them get it to economical manufacturing levels. Penetrating a major market is orders of magnitude more complex process than saying, "Hey, look this works."
1. Has it been thoroughly tested for years by any OEM's in the automotive segment? 2. Is it 100% recyclable? 3. Is it an order of magnitude scalable? 4. Is it made with readily available domestic raw materials? 5. Is it safe? 6. Does it operate as expected at all temperatures? 7. Is it proven? 8. Most importantly, it has been around for quite awhile why aren't OEM's using it already?
Nick, It is astonishing and honestly disappointing to me that someone so smart is attempting to debate/operate from such a closed minded and narrow point-of-view.
EV Myths And Realities, Part 1: The Battery Crisis [View article]
They state the roadster battery capacity deteriorates to 60% over 7 years "depending on customer charging patterns". I assume they know their product inside and out but by the way they handled the bricking issue with the roadster I also assume they could careless just how much the battery deteriorates two, three and four years after they sell the car.
EV Myths And Realities, Part 1: The Battery Crisis [View article]
Nick, "Tesla has proven there's a perfectly viable option that's not supply constrained."
No, they have not. It is not just rare earth's. A small change in demand for most all metals have a dramatic effect on their price (metal prices are far more volatile than oil). You dismissively allocate 20% of metals reserves for your LI-ion battery of choice as if ramping up production and an order of magnitude increase in demand will have no effect on the prices, politics, or environment. What about batteries for our renewable energy grid?
I have to believe their is a reason why rare earth permanent magnets have been used by Toyota and Chevy and also why they use batteries in different form factors from the cheap 18650 cells that Tesla uses. I will bet it comes down to the fact that Tesla can get some pretty impressive performance results out of the specs. of a brand new Tesla, but after a couple years use in the hands of a customer that cares more about life than how they charge their car that that performance deteriorates rapidly.
You said: "Once a single automaker has proven a high performance, cost effective solution would be unaffected by any of your forecast material supply constraints, your argument falls apart completely. Economics will take care of everything else."
I have seen you mention the point about economics several times. Do you believe in economics for electric vehicles only or do you believe in economics working across the board?
If you go to that link you can see how a true pioneer invests. Gloss over all the numbers, revenues, market caps, and facts JP laid out in this article and then read about a young man who invests because he believes the CEO walks on water (the great amalgam of Einstein, Jobs and a little JC sprinkled on top) and wants to be part of history investing in the first electric car company (104 years late) http://bit.ly/JPIAvw
If that is your investment strategy who needs all those pesky little facts about cash flow, revenue and sales histories.
Grid-Scale Energy Storage: Lux Predicts $113.5B Global Demand By 2017 [View article]
It took Axion almost a decade to develop a manufacturing process that can handle commercial level quantities of these electrodes. They have been developing long term relationships for the past several years with tier one OEM's. Most of these OEM's are not interested in jumping ship on this developmental process so they can go buy "low-priced Chinese knockoffs" for $10 cheaper, when they have a trusted, reliable manufacturer they have worked with for the past several years. Over the course of those years their IP fortress will only get stronger.
I must say I kind of like it when I see one side of the fence screaming the PbC won't be good enough to gain market acceptance and the other side of the fence saying it is going to be so good everyone will be trying to rip it off. Their current patents cover not only the technology but the manufacturing process as well so I look forward to the day when they start having manufacturers try to copy them, since that will signal they have generated enough revenue and perhaps profit from the technology to get everyone's attention.
Energy Storage: Q1 2012 Winners And Losers [View article]
Nick67 "There is a disconnect there that I am not grasping."
Because you are not thinking. The report sites the *demand* of $117B. The amazing thing is that current manufacturers of energy storage will not be able to meet that demand. Which translates to any box that can hold some energy and displace when it when asked to will be highly valued by 2017...if not sooner.
Watch Battery Manufacturers For A Trend That's Hard To Take Advantage Of [View article]
You need to do a lot more research my friend. Here is a great place to start and take note of the author and some of the very astute money managers who comment on the article... http://bit.ly/xo3aeN
Their business model is one of the few electric car business models I have seen that makes sense. Tesla has a decent business model but I feel the stock is terribly over priced at this point in time.
I stumbled onto this article because of its title and thought people could benefit from looking at Energy Storage companies like JCI, Exide and on a speculative play Axion Power. In my opinion these companies have business plans and models in place to take advantage of the coming $100B energy storage market, while the author has pointed out that A123 does not currently have a successful business model, since they are trying to grapple with negative gross margins.
Someone else brought up Tesla and if electric cars was a place people were looking for exposure I felt Kandi offered better upside potential.
Additionally, I have no position in Kandi Technologies so I wouldn't need to waste my time "misusing the audience to advertise a piece of junk" -- even if I was dumb enough to think that tactic actually worked for stocks.
Thank you for your terribly misguided assumption and good luck.
Why Target Frontier And Emerging Markets? [View article]
It was laid out plain enough that I feel like I know what I am looking for now at least a little bit and I will be able to pull even more valuable information out of your other articles. Keep up the great work. Thanks.
OECD Analysis Suggests That Electric Cars Are Not Ready For Prime Time [View article]
Here is a book that might be very interesting and one I will be ordering. Perhaps you have heard of it "Green Illusions". I am not sure I will agree with everything in it but he explains how the solar industry is the leading emitters of three gases that have a global warming potential several thousands of times higher than CO2.
http://bit.ly/LX6BFd
I am just using this as an illustration of societies attempt to trade one thing for another in our attempt to be "clean", only because we were told to hate the former. Most quasi-environmentalists are not really taking into account the extraordinary amount of potentially harmful real world side-effects of our new "green" technologies.
OECD Analysis Suggests That Electric Cars Are Not Ready For Prime Time [View article]
OECD Analysis Suggests That Electric Cars Are Not Ready For Prime Time [View article]
What we need are composite bodied lightweight EV's using industural EV drive, "
A Scandinavian outfit called Th!nk was working on trying to sell a car like you describe for two decades in Europe and went bankrupt four times, the last time they brought down Ener1 with them. Their has been work going on for lightweight little peanut-mobiles for decades in Europe where gas prices are twice the US's and subsidies are given out like candy to babies, yet the tiny composite wee-EV's still have not flown out of the coup of dismal economics. Here is to wishing though.
You are on to one thing; the smaller and lighter the device the more efficient it is to be all-electric. For now though those electric engines called batteries will be relegated to my power tools and cell phones, because that is what they are good for. I may take one in my push lawn mower though as well.
Micro-Hybrids And The Multi-Billion Dollar Battery Battle [View article]
I should just leave it at that but I can't seem to keep my mouth shut...
You refuse to acknowledge the realities of introducing a new commercial product to huge markets. You can make almost anything look doable with some paper and pen. I have seen hundreds of guys in lab coats make things look great on paper but I have not seen any of them get it to economical manufacturing levels. Penetrating a major market is orders of magnitude more complex process than saying, "Hey, look this works."
1. Has it been thoroughly tested for years by any OEM's in the automotive segment?
2. Is it 100% recyclable?
3. Is it an order of magnitude scalable?
4. Is it made with readily available domestic raw materials?
5. Is it safe?
6. Does it operate as expected at all temperatures?
7. Is it proven?
8. Most importantly, it has been around for quite awhile why aren't OEM's using it already?
Nick, It is astonishing and honestly disappointing to me that someone so smart is attempting to debate/operate from such a closed minded and narrow point-of-view.
Micro-Hybrids And The Multi-Billion Dollar Battery Battle [View article]
EV Myths And Realities, Part 1: The Battery Crisis [View article]
EV Myths And Realities, Part 1: The Battery Crisis [View article]
"Tesla has proven there's a perfectly viable option that's not supply constrained."
No, they have not. It is not just rare earth's. A small change in demand for most all metals have a dramatic effect on their price (metal prices are far more volatile than oil). You dismissively allocate 20% of metals reserves for your LI-ion battery of choice as if ramping up production and an order of magnitude increase in demand will have no effect on the prices, politics, or environment. What about batteries for our renewable energy grid?
I have to believe their is a reason why rare earth permanent magnets have been used by Toyota and Chevy and also why they use batteries in different form factors from the cheap 18650 cells that Tesla uses. I will bet it comes down to the fact that Tesla can get some pretty impressive performance results out of the specs. of a brand new Tesla, but after a couple years use in the hands of a customer that cares more about life than how they charge their car that that performance deteriorates rapidly.
You said: "Once a single automaker has proven a high performance, cost effective solution would be unaffected by any of your forecast material supply constraints, your argument falls apart completely. Economics will take care of everything else."
I have seen you mention the point about economics several times. Do you believe in economics for electric vehicles only or do you believe in economics working across the board?
Tesla's Troubling Risk-Reward Profile [View article]
If that is your investment strategy who needs all those pesky little facts about cash flow, revenue and sales histories.
New Research Dissects Lithium-Ion Battery Mythology [View article]
No, seriously, beware the jrp3.
Grid-Scale Energy Storage: Lux Predicts $113.5B Global Demand By 2017 [View article]
I must say I kind of like it when I see one side of the fence screaming the PbC won't be good enough to gain market acceptance and the other side of the fence saying it is going to be so good everyone will be trying to rip it off. Their current patents cover not only the technology but the manufacturing process as well so I look forward to the day when they start having manufacturers try to copy them, since that will signal they have generated enough revenue and perhaps profit from the technology to get everyone's attention.
Energy Storage: Q1 2012 Winners And Losers [View article]
Energy Storage: Q1 2012 Winners And Losers [View article]
Because you are not thinking. The report sites the *demand* of $117B. The amazing thing is that current manufacturers of energy storage will not be able to meet that demand. Which translates to any box that can hold some energy and displace when it when asked to will be highly valued by 2017...if not sooner.
Lead-Carbon Batteries: Cheap Classic Chemistry With 21st Century Performance [View article]
http://reut.rs/GTYAOY
Watch Battery Manufacturers For A Trend That's Hard To Take Advantage Of [View article]
Their business model is one of the few electric car business models I have seen that makes sense. Tesla has a decent business model but I feel the stock is terribly over priced at this point in time.
I stumbled onto this article because of its title and thought people could benefit from looking at Energy Storage companies like JCI, Exide and on a speculative play Axion Power. In my opinion these companies have business plans and models in place to take advantage of the coming $100B energy storage market, while the author has pointed out that A123 does not currently have a successful business model, since they are trying to grapple with negative gross margins.
Someone else brought up Tesla and if electric cars was a place people were looking for exposure I felt Kandi offered better upside potential.
Additionally, I have no position in Kandi Technologies so I wouldn't need to waste my time "misusing the audience to advertise a piece of junk" -- even if I was dumb enough to think that tactic actually worked for stocks.
Thank you for your terribly misguided assumption and good luck.