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BrutalHonesty

BrutalHonesty
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  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    The Reuters article seems to have a different take on things...

    http://yhoo.it/1lQ4MOD

    "Yet a visit to some of the clubs that have been set up to dispense the company's shakes, teas and other items, largely to the Hispanic community in the U.S., shows that it has fans. These are consumers who stress their health has improved and distributors who are thankful to have the opportunity to run their own businesses."
    Sep 9 11:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    spunboy,
    Just out of curiosity, do you have any experience with CIDs, the FTC, the legal process involved, etc.? If not, why would you get into an argument with someone who clearly has had plenty of experience with precisely these issues?
    Is it your belief that Sacathanas has some hidden agenda?
    Sep 2 03:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    CBN,
    Well, the shorts better be right on this one or HLF could very easily double WITHOUT any squeeze should the FTC not do something significant. A slap on the wrist and they are cooked. And if that happens and there is a squeeze we could see $120 - $150/share in a heartbeat. At this price it just seems like a terrible risk/return position to be short.
    Sep 2 02:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    Spun,
    "has any MLM company that has been given a CID gotten off with "minor FTC action?" I'm not aware of any and no one else that I'm aware of has answered this question. "

    So you are assuming that because there is a CID they are doomed? I love to read stuff like that from the shorts. I will sleep very well tonight indeed.

    Let me give you a hint: do some more research and then cover your short. Actually, you should really cover your short first...
    Aug 28 04:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    SE,
    "Trying to quantify how much of the bonds prices were driven by the change in the stock price and change in debt repayment ability would [i] be pure speculation and [ii] lead to another round of arguments."
    It wouldn't be speculation, but it would require that you understand option pricing...
    On the other hand, implying that there is not a significant impact of the stock price on the convertible price is not speculation because it is just plain absurd and not believable.
    Aug 28 04:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    "How the convertible bonds trade relative to movements in the stock price may work in general."
    And yet you don't mention this in your article as a significant factor. Perhaps it would be helpful to at least try to quantify how much of the bond price movement is attributable to the movements of the stock price instead of speculating.

    QE impacts all investments. Not sure why you would bring that up.
    Aug 28 11:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Convertible Bonds Signal Pain Ahead [View article]
    Convertible bond prices drop when the embedded call options in the bonds decline in value - this occurs when the stock price decreases.
    So to sum up your article more simply: the stock price has dropped since the issuance of the convertible bonds and the prices on the convertible bonds have thus declined AS ONE WOULD EXPECT.
    If the stock price increases and the convertible bonds also increase in price (as they will) then I expect to see another article from you detailing how bond investors now see the company in a better light. You will write such an article, won't you?
    Finally, EPS estimates (from Yahoo) are for $6.29 in 2014 and $7.19 in 2015. HLF is therefore trading with a forward PE of around 7 AND is expected to grow its earnings at around 14%. If you think such a company is overpriced please give me a list of companies with similar financial characteristics as I can't seem to find them.
    Aug 28 10:41 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under What Assumptions Is Tesla Trading At Fair Value? [View article]
    Can you give us an idea of what you think the proper valuation should be for Tesla given your optimism? Just because the company will grow does not make investment in the shares worthwhile. It depends on the cost of the shares. You could have written this response with the shares trading at $1000 per share or $100,000 per share.
    So at what share price would you be willing to say the shares are trading too high?
    Aug 27 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Buffett Is Changing The Future Of Berkshire's Float - From Insurance To Uncle Sam [View article]
    Buffett owns a large percentage of brk. Brk pays many billions of $s per year in taxes. Buffett is paying PLENTY of taxes...just not on his 1040.
    Aug 16 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Buffett Is Changing The Future Of Berkshire's Float - From Insurance To Uncle Sam [View article]
    Rknecht's point, which is well made, is that insurance float is a key driver of valuing an insurance company's contribution to brk's value. Insurance companies gather cash that can be invested by the master.
    DTL's do not generate cash in the same way. DTL's reflect diminished taxes paid which helps the ROIC of those businesses that generate them but that is somewhat different than insurance float.
    Aug 16 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Buffett Is Changing The Future Of Berkshire's Float - From Insurance To Uncle Sam [View article]
    Project,
    Totally agree with you. I was going to write something similar but couldn't do better than your post.
    Aug 16 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Buffett Is Changing The Future Of Berkshire's Float - From Insurance To Uncle Sam [View article]
    Great. But then why write previously that fair value is $192k per share?
    Aug 16 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Buffett Is Changing The Future Of Berkshire's Float - From Insurance To Uncle Sam [View article]
    An interesting article. However, just because the ratio of "adjusted book value" to standard book value is 1.34 and is somewhat stable does not mean that 1.34 represents fair value for the shares. Buffett would not buy back stock at 1.2 times book if it was only worth 1.34 book.
    Aug 16 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Why I'm Not Paying $32 For SODA [View article]
    It is my understanding that the per serving cost of the GMCR soda machine will be quite a bit higher than SodaStream's. Can you comment on that please?
    Aug 6 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm More Confident Of My Herbalife Short Position Today [View article]
    If Ackman is willing to say something like this that is totally false he is not to be trusted. Additionally, it is provably false so he would obviously get caught which also indicates that he is not thinking clearly. Why would anyone invest based on information put out by someone like that?
    Jul 24 01:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
363 Comments
899 Likes