• humahuaca
    Trade idea: Long FXP (2x short China ABE) at $30, write June $35 calls for $4 against it. If you are bearish on China, seems like a great
    12/27/11
    Reply (28)
    • humahuaca: way to play it, no? I am already long FXP, sold some Jan $33 calls against it. But want to sell some Jun $35 as well, Anyone else in FXP?
      12/27/11
    • REIT: i couldn't sleep until i found the answer its not common to have two years of downside in a raw ,even in worse years of 2007, 2008,and 2009
      12/27/11
    • REIT: i went back 20 years almost never having two down years ,so 2012 should be a good year not because things are good ,but the market is fixed
      12/27/11
    • REIT: having two many bad years will end with no one playing the game,add savings ,other govmt programs .better make it up in paper of less value
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: Here's my POV: Some up years are like 6%, or like this year, and with current volatility you can make or lose 3% in a day, easily. So why
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: bother trying to predict 1 year returns? Just trade in and out for a 1% gain at a time, and you'll be way ahead. No need to be bull or bear
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: just try to keep an open mind.
      12/27/11
    • REIT: i dont agree why pick directions very short term its hard to predict directions for small intervals ,
      12/27/11
    • REIT: yearly negative market returns for two years in a raw are hard to find this can increase your odds if you trade after a down year or sayflat
      12/27/11
    • REIT: after flat year ,so what im trying to say 2012 more likely to be positive year and i can even say it will be at least double digits up
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: Short term moves are far easier to get right than long term. 2012 could be up 20% or down 40%, imo. No way to know. Just takin it day to day
      12/27/11
    • REIT: search historical data please see your statement it is common not right ,short term trading looks simple but mathematically its impossible
      12/27/11
    • REIT: odds against you trust me ,you cant win the more you play the more you lose ,only long duration ,dividend ,options income ,and futures too
      12/27/11
    • REIT: is it by chance we dont have two years in a raw with negative returns ????
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: It doesn't really matter to me how many up or down years we have in a row, I'm sure you are right, my point is buy and hold no longer works.
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: Of course I personally over trade, and have taken profit way too early on some good trades, MCD, HPQ, CSCO, INTC, all bought dirt cheap
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: just to name a few. But I think today's markets are extraordinary, and will continue to be so for a year or 2 more, at least. Extraordinary
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: times call for extraordinary measures.
      12/27/11
    • REIT: trust me everything i sold it is up , i cant buy no more only few in the transportation went down all the good companies i bought are higher
      12/27/11
    • REIT: search now for good companies they are all up,nothin left and the market is flat so what will happen on a good year ,then catch all up days
      12/27/11
    • REIT: dividend ,covered calls income it adds up to good +15 % a year why sell it
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: Only reason to sell is if you see a huge problem, a huge debt bubble, which their is no politically acceptable solution. The math is
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: undeniable, it is only a question of when the bubble deflates. I can wait. I'd love to earn even 6% on my portfolio, I'd live like a king
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: but it would really hurt to be fully invested and lose 35% in a crash. If mkts stabilize or go up, fine, I'll buy some nice dividend payers
      12/27/11
    • REIT: 50 years from now probably ,might not be here to see the day
      12/27/11
    • humahuaca: and maybe even write calls against them, perfect. But I don't see us anywhere near stability.
      12/27/11
    • REIT: me too its been like this for 70 years if not more ,im not saying there are no issues around us ,im saying life will goon some will work
      12/27/11
    • REIT: longer hrs ,some need to think why they cant keep up but it will keep on rolling ,and married couple will both work ppl will manage
      12/27/11