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  • Apple About To Blow The Roof Off Of $600 [View article]
    June 2nd is a corporate "record date" you will still be trading pre-share prices through June 6th. June 9th post new shares split for June 6th end of day holders.
    Apr 30, 2014. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple About To Blow The Roof Off Of $600 [View article]
    QTR - how can you write an article on Apple talking about a price acceleration above $600 in the month in June by talking about

    1. Buybacks? -> not relevant until end of july for next ER

    and more importantly failing to mention

    2. WWDC event in June 2-June 6 where it is likely one or more of the following will be announced:
    - IOs 8
    - OS X 10.10
    - Mac Mini
    - Apple TV (set-top box)
    - 12 Inch Retina Macbook
    - Likely unveiling of Healthbook App
    - iWatch to be unveiled with above mentioned app?
    - the major dark horse -> Mobile Payment platform using touch ID.

    Also, lets not forget to mention to your readers that the last day of trading pre-stock split also happens to be the last day of WWDC. Coincidence? Not likely.

    If you want to sell Apple as a perma-bull, get the important stuff to your readers...
    Apr 30, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Waters Ahead For Apple In China [View article]
    god, what a fundamental flaw in the analysis.

    when you look at Mr. Blair's projections, samsung, lenova, Coolpad, and Huawaii are all reflected with anywhere from 30% to 80% growth.

    The assumption is that ALL of these manufacturers are able to grow into the expanding market without losing a single percentage of market share or even improving their marketshare (Coolpad).

    The problem with this assumption is that these ARE ALL android devices. THEY ALL DO the same thing, feel the same, made of plastic, share the same ecosystem. Lets call these our Dogs.

    Some people, not all, love Apple b/c of iOS, the phones integration to other Apple products, and the apple ecosystem. Lets call Apple our CAT

    Now ask yourself of the 321 million units sold last year in China, apple had 22 million sold. Why would their market share be so low?

    1. China Mobile not in place. So maybe like ~125-150? million units didn't even have apple as AN OPTION! That leaves 171 million phones left.

    2. People hate apple, so they choose an android phone or already in the android ecosystem. 40 million phones? 131 million phones left.

    3. Competitors offer cheaper option so they choose competitor. 70 million? that leaves 61 million phones left.

    4. People simply strongly prefer and need a larger screen (particularly in China). I have personally traveled to Hong Kong twice last year and trying to watch a person on the subway write (text) chinese on an Iphone is laughable, compared to their compatriots on 5in screen or note.

    So screen size decision affects maybe 15 million phones? That leaves 46 million phones.

    5. Other reasons they didnt buy iphone- 24 million.

    That leaves 22 million phones left, the amount apple sold.

    So now to figure out 2014, of all the reasons above, two of them are importantly being corrected -> China Mobile and Screen Size.

    Apply China Mobile 2013 market size (125 million units) to Apple's non-China Mobile market share (22 million of 196 million = 11.2%).

    Now apply the 11.2% to 125 million China Mobile units = 14 million more units

    Add in the lost units from screen size of 15 million units = 29 million more units (14 +15)

    So if number 1 and 4 did not exist as "problems" for apple in 2013 it is reasonable from my analysis to assume they could have sold 51 million phones (22 actual + 14 China Mobile + 15 Screen Size).

    This would have made their 2013 market share = 51 / 321 = 15.8% market share.

    Now apply their adjusted market share from 2013 to the 2014 total estimated market of 450 million units.

    15.8% x 450 million units = 71.5 million units.

    This 2014 - 71.5 million is a little bit higher than Mr. Blair's bogus, slated analysis.

    In conclusion:
    Mr. Blair assumes that in China Dogs ONLY eat Cats. However, what he fails to realize in Apple's capture of new market share is that in China Dogs EAT Dogs.

    This is why Pacific-Crest Analyst, Andy Hargreaves, is a 5 star analyst and realizes that the iPhone 6 "will be huge" and why Mr. Blair is a seeking alpha analyst wanna be.
    Mar 11, 2014. 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Prognosis: Range-Bound [View article]
    Hi, great comments from bret and zigazaga.

    If you ever looking to do a vertical spread should always evaluate the volatility and pricing of a bull call spread vs a bull put spread. both function in a similar manner where you want the underlying stock to go up to make money, however, you may find that from volatility (i.e. pricing of the puts vs calls) you may make more money on the put side.

    Lets assume you

    Sell a 540 apple April PUT, buy a 530 apple April Put
    This may offer greater profitability than ->
    Buying a 530 apple April Call, selling a 540 Apple April Call
    Feb 23, 2014. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You On Demand: The Netflix Of China [View article]
    Hmm, this is what you limit your warnings signs too?
    How about some other warnings signs:
    1. Author - first article on SA is a microcap magical next netflix of China company
    2. Followers - 43 - I wonder how many were even before the article was published.
    3. Comments - positive comments overwhelmingly coming from users with first time postings. So first time to SA and your very first comment is on article of micro-stock. How about we use the author's own sarcastic commentary "logical".
    4. Comments - softball questions with author responses also all come from single comment SA users -> "logical'.
    5. Stocktwits - some of the current followers also happen to be the same people trolling on stocktwits -> "logical"
    +6 - ooouuh oouuh - lets add another - Author owns shares for 1.5 years and now is the first time he decides to write the article. why not 2 months ago? 6 months ago? When exactly did this "Inked" licensing deal get done with China? Was this like last week? I find it interesting that the author highlights this exclusivity as important thesis point, but it is never directly mentioned when the deal actually happened? I assume since he is writing the article last friday that the deal must have like happened on Thursday. Finally something noteworthy for this author to finally write his first article on the company after owning it for a whole 1.5 years.

    So Thursday was the China deal closure? "logical" right?

    oohhh - wait a second, nope, this deal was actually inked in 2011. -> "logical"
    Feb 10, 2014. 05:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings For Apple? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is! My $32,000 Gambit! [View instapost]
    btw, I am probably staring at a 90% loss at the moment. I have not had the courage to even log in and check my account. I will wait 1 week and see how apple trades and then decide how I may roll out of my positions.

    although the earnings from apple clearly disappointed a lot of people, and their guidance wasn't very warm either, I will look for any type of recovery off any rebound in the next weeks. I will post my final losses when I have exited the trade.
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings For Apple? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is! My $32,000 Gambit! [View instapost]
    Hi Endobrendo,

    I sold puts via a bull put spread. This helps limit maximum loss and protect time decay and volatility. The maximum gain is what I receive from the credit.

    Apple is currently trading at 450. If you bought a 475 put and sold a 550 put you would get a net credit. Your maximum loss would probably be like 2,000, and maximum gain (the credit) would be like 8,000 (approx numbers).

    Your best case scenario is that both options expire and apple is trading above 550.

    You can do a bull put spread in fashion. Such as 400 - 500 spread or a 440 - 450 spread. Each spread has its own max loss, max gain potential and essentially carries different risk based on that for the spread that you setup.
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings For Apple? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is! My $32,000 Gambit! [View instapost]
    true, I am being a bit hopeful that they saw how negative their guidance was perceived on q1. Let us hope for at least 12.00 EPS.
    Jan 23, 2013. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Can Shares Rebound? [View article]
    ugghh, I just re-read this article. I know you had a lot of this pre-written and you laid it out very nicely Bill.

    But you are not using any of the at&t or verizon numbers to forecast your iphone.

    I have a feeling you will be surprised tomorrow. you are going to have about a 15% miss on your iPhone estimate.

    Ohhhh, AND if anyone out there is worried about "weaker than expected demand" I did my own bit of reporting. This was last Saturday night, a regular night, at an Apple store in NJ. Over 200 people in the store, and most were in the shopping area, not in the classroom area.

    blurry photo was taken with an S2 phone :)

    oh, and yes, the MS surface demo area in the middle of the mall hallway had 3 people at it. The 3 workers.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Can Shares Rebound? [View article]
    I need to correct my own numbers, error in my excel sheet on iPhone growth number.

    New EPS Estimates:

    Revenue: 61.5 Billion

    iPhones: 56.5 million units

    iPads: 27 million units (11 million minis though don't expect breakout of this figure)

    GM %: 38.5%

    EPS: 15.75
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Can Shares Rebound? [View article]
    you are too low. here are my projections:

    Revenue: 63.5 Billion

    iPhones: 60 million units

    iPads: 27 million units (11 million minis though don't expect breakout of this figure)

    GM %: 38.5%

    EPS: 16.00

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL
    Jan 22, 2013. 06:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings For Apple? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is! My $32,000 Gambit! [View instapost]
    agree, but market makers saw a particular opportunity with that jan expiration(s).

    most traders are on the sidelines for a wait and see for earnings. therefore i think much of the volume we have seen in the last 10 days, are the same funds buying and selling to push towards their Open Interest contracts.

    If the market could always be "controlled" like this then apple would always trade to wherever the highest OI is at for a given expiration, and we know that doesn't always happen.

    OI evolves at the date gets closer and the underlying stock prices moves. market makers have to liquidate and open new positions.

    anyways, post earnings, I still see a surge of strengthening sentiment and apple bulls taking full control of the stock by early feb.
    Jan 22, 2013. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q1 2013 Earnings: A Gross Margin Game [View article]
    fantastic article, showing how Gross Margins impact the bottom line was laid out so nicely.

    It kinda of reminds of the reverse when like a 2% increase on taxes occurs, the amount of additional revenue to still meet the same EPS will always be > 2%.
    Jan 22, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings For Apple? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is! My $32,000 Gambit! [View instapost]
    Hi Dialetical, you model the puts in an options calcualator. The bull put spread on apple is almost too good to be true.

    It is a great way to play a short term trade and not get burned on implied volatility and have some time decay protection as well.

    Anyways as of Friday close prices, a 525 buy to 675 sell put for Feb 16th expiration offers the following:

    13,840 net credit, which is also your maximum possible gain
    1,280 maximum possible loss

    so if you had 10 grand cash to back the puts, you can net credit ~9 spreads for 124,560$

    and how does the trade unfold? 10 days before expiration, with a 10% decrease in volatility, my breakeven is 527.

    YESSSS 527
    100% Gain at at 550.

    800% gain at 650

    so while the upside is slightly:) limited compared to owning like a 625 call option, i still think this is the best way to play feb options.

    you can see most of my capital for my calls are in the april and march periods which have volatility around 35%, which historically is not that bad. When march product cycles get closer those volatility will increase and will help the option prices.
    Jan 22, 2013. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Remarkably Safe Way To Play The Apple Earnings Announcement [View article]
    and with that, I will give you the least possible way to play it safe. Here is my take on Apple on Earnings:
    Jan 21, 2013. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment