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The IEA Annual Report: A Dire Picture of Energy Supply and Demand

The IEA constantly changes its outlook. Based on reviewing several years of 'annual reports' it seems that the general trend calls for higher consumption though the projected growth rate seems to be constantly adjusted to a lower actual rate.

There could be two reasons for the inaccuracy in the forecasts:
1) IEA analysts don't compensate for technology improvements for both production/consumption and pollution.
2) IEA analysts can not allocate government interventions that have yet to take effect.

When all is said and done, oil at $50 to $65 is where it should have been all along as stated in articles about a year ago. The 'financial crisis' is just an excuse for it to come down now that GS can no longer pump it up to $140.

As for the future; the next time we hit $140 it will be for real and won't come down again. Unless a viable substitute is developed, it is just a matter of time. Will it be 2030? It is hard to say as it may be well before.

Just like oil above $85 today threw the U.S. economy into recession (before the financial crisis hit), likewise should oil fall below $35 it will ignite a backlash that will cut off production and prices will spike.

Too high is no good and the same holds true for too low. Perhaps now Chavez, Putin and others will start listening to the Harvard educated Saudis' who were constantly warning about oil going over the $100 mark. The Saudis' attempted to 'talk' the price down. It's too late for this time, but let's try to remember for the next time!

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