CrossProfit_'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/944/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/156269-coming-soon-banking-crisis-of-historic-proportions?source=feed#comment-641220 641220
Proof is the 'cash for clunkers' program. As we all know, the United States of America is subsidizing new car sales in the United States, whether bought by a U.S. citizen or not. In addition, 60% of the cars sold under the program were manufactured by non U.S. manufacturers.

So here you have the proof. What Government in its right mind would try to subsidize the entire world unless it had a surplus. The presumed banking crisis must be a hoax or an attempt to get foreigners and the weak minded to sell their stakes.

If the above is incorrect, please explain to me how your interpretation correlates with the Governments actions.

Thank you
[sarc]]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 17:35:00 -0400
Proof is the 'cash for clunkers' program. As we all know, the United States of America is subsidizing new car sales in the United States, whether bought by a U.S. citizen or not. In addition, 60% of the cars sold under the program were manufactured by non U.S. manufacturers.

So here you have the proof. What Government in its right mind would try to subsidize the entire world unless it had a surplus. The presumed banking crisis must be a hoax or an attempt to get foreigners and the weak minded to sell their stakes.

If the above is incorrect, please explain to me how your interpretation correlates with the Governments actions.

Thank you
[sarc]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105842-the-iea-annual-report-a-dire-picture-of-energy-supply-and-demand?source=feed#comment-305401 305401
There could be two reasons for the inaccuracy in the forecasts:
1) IEA analysts don't compensate for technology improvements for both production/consumption and pollution.
2) IEA analysts can not allocate government interventions that have yet to take effect.

When all is said and done, oil at $50 to $65 is where it should have been all along as stated in articles about a year ago. The 'financial crisis' is just an excuse for it to come down now that GS can no longer pump it up to $140.

As for the future; the next time we hit $140 it will be for real and won't come down again. Unless a viable substitute is developed, it is just a matter of time. Will it be 2030? It is hard to say as it may be well before.

Just like oil above $85 today threw the U.S. economy into recession (before the financial crisis hit), likewise should oil fall below $35 it will ignite a backlash that will cut off production and prices will spike.

Too high is no good and the same holds true for too low. Perhaps now Chavez, Putin and others will start listening to the Harvard educated Saudis' who were constantly warning about oil going over the $100 mark. The Saudis' attempted to 'talk' the price down. It's too late for this time, but let's try to remember for the next time!

CrossProfit]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:27:57 -0500
There could be two reasons for the inaccuracy in the forecasts:
1) IEA analysts don't compensate for technology improvements for both production/consumption and pollution.
2) IEA analysts can not allocate government interventions that have yet to take effect.

When all is said and done, oil at $50 to $65 is where it should have been all along as stated in articles about a year ago. The 'financial crisis' is just an excuse for it to come down now that GS can no longer pump it up to $140.

As for the future; the next time we hit $140 it will be for real and won't come down again. Unless a viable substitute is developed, it is just a matter of time. Will it be 2030? It is hard to say as it may be well before.

Just like oil above $85 today threw the U.S. economy into recession (before the financial crisis hit), likewise should oil fall below $35 it will ignite a backlash that will cut off production and prices will spike.

Too high is no good and the same holds true for too low. Perhaps now Chavez, Putin and others will start listening to the Harvard educated Saudis' who were constantly warning about oil going over the $100 mark. The Saudis' attempted to 'talk' the price down. It's too late for this time, but let's try to remember for the next time!

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104366-toronto-stock-exchange-displaying-strength?source=feed#comment-299164 299164
As for the volume paradox; congrats on noticing this, however, conclusion is a bit off. Sometime 2009, oil will retest the $100 mark or thereabouts. Recession or no recession, it's going to happen for a number of reasons. How and when is dependent on so many variables that stating a possible scenario now is equivalent to buying a lottery ticket. The TSX is reflecting this and basically has turned into a giant option put/call machine with an emphasis on oil and gas with other commodities playing second fiddle.

When it finally happens, then and only then will the TSX part from following the rest. (Australia is similar yet very different components, also less dependent on U.S. economy.)

Be careful how you place your bets as options have a tendency to expire worthless!

CrossProfit]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 03:36:27 -0500
As for the volume paradox; congrats on noticing this, however, conclusion is a bit off. Sometime 2009, oil will retest the $100 mark or thereabouts. Recession or no recession, it's going to happen for a number of reasons. How and when is dependent on so many variables that stating a possible scenario now is equivalent to buying a lottery ticket. The TSX is reflecting this and basically has turned into a giant option put/call machine with an emphasis on oil and gas with other commodities playing second fiddle.

When it finally happens, then and only then will the TSX part from following the rest. (Australia is similar yet very different components, also less dependent on U.S. economy.)

Be careful how you place your bets as options have a tendency to expire worthless!

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/10651?source=feed#comment-299155 299155 Thu, 06 Nov 2008 03:17:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/10377?source=feed#comment-297842 297842
The market is fully aware of the fact that no matter the outcome of the election, nothing starts to change until January 17, 2009. Even then it will take two to three months for the new President to set priorities and direction. Then, and only then will we get the markets true reaction to the new President.

In short, nothing has changed...this is still a traders market.


On Nov 04 04:20 AM Y.I. wrote:

> V helpful comment, CrossProfit -- thank you. What are your thoughts
> on today's US market?]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 07:01:35 -0500
The market is fully aware of the fact that no matter the outcome of the election, nothing starts to change until January 17, 2009. Even then it will take two to three months for the new President to set priorities and direction. Then, and only then will we get the markets true reaction to the new President.

In short, nothing has changed...this is still a traders market.


On Nov 04 04:20 AM Y.I. wrote:

> V helpful comment, CrossProfit -- thank you. What are your thoughts
> on today's US market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/10377?source=feed#comment-297785 297785
The percentage gain actually indicates caution, as if to say we are not out of the woods yet. Had the Nikkei flown to 9700, then you would have a leading indicator. It didn't happen.]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:41:55 -0500
The percentage gain actually indicates caution, as if to say we are not out of the woods yet. Had the Nikkei flown to 9700, then you would have a leading indicator. It didn't happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102042-more-on-tarp-and-the-insurance-industry?source=feed#comment-291289 291289
As an aside, there are two new competitors on the block, Buffett and Citadil. If ABK's future is the reason for your 'spike and leave' conclusion, it may be premature to make such a call.

CrossProfit]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 08:01:25 -0400
As an aside, there are two new competitors on the block, Buffett and Citadil. If ABK's future is the reason for your 'spike and leave' conclusion, it may be premature to make such a call.

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100640-picking-some-stocks-to-survive-this-market?source=feed#comment-285888 285888
Once there is more visibility or stability (as in a lower VIX), then going back to a long term horizon would seem to be more sustainable. However, if you really do intend to stick with your previous strategy, then perhaps you should be looking at companies that have already taken advantage of this mess and are doing so with a longer time horizon in mind.

A good example would be comparing BAC with JPM. BAC has taken a long term approach, whereas JPM has taken the quick return approach. Not saying that banks are up your alley, just pointing how two companies seem to be taking advantage of the current situation and the different ways they do so.

Should you decide to be more short term focused, as we believe is currently advisable, then an attempt to find the short term winners of the 'national bailout' should prove very lucrative. One possibility is some of the Monolines. Perhaps some energy stocks that have been beaten down so much that their future earnings at - shall we say - $50 a barrel are going to eventually force a 30% PPS increase. Be careful though as not all will jump after reporting earnings.

Besides, there is a very good chance that oil will be up 20% sometime in 2009. The logic is simple. If the 'national' and now 'global' bailout succeeds to stabilize the markets and world economy, then as evident throughout the downturn, every time there was a hint of a recovery, oil started to regain lost ground. On the other hand if the bailout fails, then no stock on the stock market is safe. In other words, if your buying anything, you are betting on the success of the bailout. If such is the case, then why not bet on the stocks that have already proven that they go up when the future is promising?

Notice how the term 'bet' is used and not 'invest'. Reflecting current market conditions is a contagious 'healthy' approach!

As an aside, you must find it ironic that Mr. Buffett advises to buy stocks now (or miss the spring as he put it) as he himself is doing. Now if only Merkel and every other investor could buy preferred with a guaranteed 10% coupon...we would all probably say the same!

Good luck.
CrossProfit ]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 19:00:38 -0400
Once there is more visibility or stability (as in a lower VIX), then going back to a long term horizon would seem to be more sustainable. However, if you really do intend to stick with your previous strategy, then perhaps you should be looking at companies that have already taken advantage of this mess and are doing so with a longer time horizon in mind.

A good example would be comparing BAC with JPM. BAC has taken a long term approach, whereas JPM has taken the quick return approach. Not saying that banks are up your alley, just pointing how two companies seem to be taking advantage of the current situation and the different ways they do so.

Should you decide to be more short term focused, as we believe is currently advisable, then an attempt to find the short term winners of the 'national bailout' should prove very lucrative. One possibility is some of the Monolines. Perhaps some energy stocks that have been beaten down so much that their future earnings at - shall we say - $50 a barrel are going to eventually force a 30% PPS increase. Be careful though as not all will jump after reporting earnings.

Besides, there is a very good chance that oil will be up 20% sometime in 2009. The logic is simple. If the 'national' and now 'global' bailout succeeds to stabilize the markets and world economy, then as evident throughout the downturn, every time there was a hint of a recovery, oil started to regain lost ground. On the other hand if the bailout fails, then no stock on the stock market is safe. In other words, if your buying anything, you are betting on the success of the bailout. If such is the case, then why not bet on the stocks that have already proven that they go up when the future is promising?

Notice how the term 'bet' is used and not 'invest'. Reflecting current market conditions is a contagious 'healthy' approach!

As an aside, you must find it ironic that Mr. Buffett advises to buy stocks now (or miss the spring as he put it) as he himself is doing. Now if only Merkel and every other investor could buy preferred with a guaranteed 10% coupon...we would all probably say the same!

Good luck.
CrossProfit ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96878-drs-update-the-company-s-acquisition-could-be-sensitive?source=feed#comment-284027 284027
Not a bad guess for the closing date. Based on today's info, this could close before the end of October if all the financing gets done in time.

One other item: These types of transactions are immune to markets falling as they are pretty much insulated from market swings and recession. It takes forever to put this type of a deal together and the time horizon (expected return) is over a decade, not 'three years and sell' that private equity deals work on. It's always nice to have a government (Italian in this case) interested in the deal going through.

The dip to $75 two weeks ago was an ARB's wet dream (pardon our Italian!).

CrossProfit]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:27:54 -0400
Not a bad guess for the closing date. Based on today's info, this could close before the end of October if all the financing gets done in time.

One other item: These types of transactions are immune to markets falling as they are pretty much insulated from market swings and recession. It takes forever to put this type of a deal together and the time horizon (expected return) is over a decade, not 'three years and sell' that private equity deals work on. It's always nice to have a government (Italian in this case) interested in the deal going through.

The dip to $75 two weeks ago was an ARB's wet dream (pardon our Italian!).

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99476-bargain-buys-for-patient-investors-barron-s?source=feed#comment-282512 282512
To the best of our knowledge, Andrew Barry does not claim to have done any in depth analysis, nor is he claiming that he has consulted with analysts prior to writing these articles.

The purpose of these type of articles is just to highlight that certain companies are sitting on a ton of cash or are trading at historically low P/E's. It doesn't tell you what the cash is for or why the P/E is so low, yet suggests that there may be a buying opportunity.

Do your own DD, nothing more. Most importantly, just because the name 'Barron's' appears on the article, doesn't make it any better or worse than any other article appearing on Seeking Alpha.

CrossProfit ]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:28:46 -0400
To the best of our knowledge, Andrew Barry does not claim to have done any in depth analysis, nor is he claiming that he has consulted with analysts prior to writing these articles.

The purpose of these type of articles is just to highlight that certain companies are sitting on a ton of cash or are trading at historically low P/E's. It doesn't tell you what the cash is for or why the P/E is so low, yet suggests that there may be a buying opportunity.

Do your own DD, nothing more. Most importantly, just because the name 'Barron's' appears on the article, doesn't make it any better or worse than any other article appearing on Seeking Alpha.

CrossProfit ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99763-chasing-unicorns-the-cycle-gods-are-still-playing-with-us-mere-mortals?source=feed#comment-282498 282498
"Nonetheless, we think it's premature for investors to buy equities on the assumption that the economic troubles are now passed."

1) This is meaningless unless you give your criteria for when it WOULD be time for investors to buy equities, such as a 200 MDA pass percentage or something else.

2) Without the above, you are "invariably backward looking"!

All in good spirits!
CrossProfit]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:08:46 -0400
"Nonetheless, we think it's premature for investors to buy equities on the assumption that the economic troubles are now passed."

1) This is meaningless unless you give your criteria for when it WOULD be time for investors to buy equities, such as a 200 MDA pass percentage or something else.

2) Without the above, you are "invariably backward looking"!

All in good spirits!
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97569-wamu-shows-again-smart-money-can-be-wrong?source=feed#comment-266337 266337
Disagree.

1) This sweeping advice would have been true a year ago and still true three months ago.
2) Should a 'national bailout' package go through, there are several financial stocks that will benefit directly and others indirectly.
3) There may even be a few that could appreciate over 100% within a few days!

Just because WM went under doesn't mean that the rest of the troubled financial stocks have the same coming. It all depends on how the 'bailout' is structured.

CrossProfit]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 16:19:11 -0400
Disagree.

1) This sweeping advice would have been true a year ago and still true three months ago.
2) Should a 'national bailout' package go through, there are several financial stocks that will benefit directly and others indirectly.
3) There may even be a few that could appreciate over 100% within a few days!

Just because WM went under doesn't mean that the rest of the troubled financial stocks have the same coming. It all depends on how the 'bailout' is structured.

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97299-leverage-101-the-real-cause-of-the-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-264495 264495
Not sure why you included AIG in this list. A CDS is a totally different instrument, basically an insurance policy on debt.

A 'credit default swap' pays out when the bond or debt issuer can not repay. AIG's problem is that it sold CDS's to anyone who wanted to buy whether or not they actually were holding the bonds.

As an example, Company A sold $100M bonds on the market. Mr. Smith who didn't buy any bonds came to AIG and wanted to bet that Company A would default on the bonds. Mr. Smith bought $200M (yes, even more than the outstanding bonds!) worth of CDS coverage from AIG and paid $2,500,000. Now Company A can't repay the bond or is being liquidated etc. and bond holders receive only 50%. Mr. Smith, who never actually purchased a single bond, goes to AIG and says that on the $200M worth of CDS, real bondholders are getting only 50% so you owe me $100M! That's the problem...it doesn't take many defaults for the numbers to add up quickly.

AIG sold these 'policies' because it thought in the aggregate it would make money on the premiums. In reality, long term it might be true. However, a short term hiccup can create a serious cash outflow. AIG simply did not have enough cash reserves to cover its current obligations. This is why it needed $28B in a hurry.

CDS is insurance, not classified as leveraging though investors will use a CDS to leverage and offset - that's a different story.
CrossProfit]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 06:59:27 -0400
Not sure why you included AIG in this list. A CDS is a totally different instrument, basically an insurance policy on debt.

A 'credit default swap' pays out when the bond or debt issuer can not repay. AIG's problem is that it sold CDS's to anyone who wanted to buy whether or not they actually were holding the bonds.

As an example, Company A sold $100M bonds on the market. Mr. Smith who didn't buy any bonds came to AIG and wanted to bet that Company A would default on the bonds. Mr. Smith bought $200M (yes, even more than the outstanding bonds!) worth of CDS coverage from AIG and paid $2,500,000. Now Company A can't repay the bond or is being liquidated etc. and bond holders receive only 50%. Mr. Smith, who never actually purchased a single bond, goes to AIG and says that on the $200M worth of CDS, real bondholders are getting only 50% so you owe me $100M! That's the problem...it doesn't take many defaults for the numbers to add up quickly.

AIG sold these 'policies' because it thought in the aggregate it would make money on the premiums. In reality, long term it might be true. However, a short term hiccup can create a serious cash outflow. AIG simply did not have enough cash reserves to cover its current obligations. This is why it needed $28B in a hurry.

CDS is insurance, not classified as leveraging though investors will use a CDS to leverage and offset - that's a different story.
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96315-bank-of-america-bank-on-this-opportunity?source=feed#comment-260431 260431
BAC is not overpaying for MER, at the same time it can be said that BAC is not underpaying as well. This is why this deal will go through. The price is about right.

On the other hand, the AIG deal is an unbelievable steal for the Treasury. There you have to watch out. Whenever a deal is too good to be true, meaning that one party is partying at the expense of the other, expect the deal to either fall through, be replaced by another or renegotiated with the same parties.

CrossProfit ]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 01:51:58 -0400
BAC is not overpaying for MER, at the same time it can be said that BAC is not underpaying as well. This is why this deal will go through. The price is about right.

On the other hand, the AIG deal is an unbelievable steal for the Treasury. There you have to watch out. Whenever a deal is too good to be true, meaning that one party is partying at the expense of the other, expect the deal to either fall through, be replaced by another or renegotiated with the same parties.

CrossProfit ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96425-if-you-think-the-dow-did-well-today-you-re-wrong?source=feed#comment-260154 260154
This type of article is best left to the Bespoke Investment Group that syndicates on Seeking Alpha as well.
See: bespokeinvest.typepad..../
Statistical comparisons is their expertise and they offer clients a lot more useful and comprehensive information at the push of a button.

Your insights in other areas are much appreciated.

Thank you,
CrossProfit]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 14:39:12 -0400
This type of article is best left to the Bespoke Investment Group that syndicates on Seeking Alpha as well.
See: bespokeinvest.typepad..../
Statistical comparisons is their expertise and they offer clients a lot more useful and comprehensive information at the push of a button.

Your insights in other areas are much appreciated.

Thank you,
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95832-aig-buyout-in-the-long-term-we-ll-pay-for-this?source=feed#comment-256690 256690
Please explain in plain English, exactly what you mean and how this will come about. Also, please explain exactly how the $45T in CDS is a $45T loss. Perhaps you are attempting to say something else? It is not very clear from the above that you understand how a CDS works.

CrossProfit]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:31:19 -0400
Please explain in plain English, exactly what you mean and how this will come about. Also, please explain exactly how the $45T in CDS is a $45T loss. Perhaps you are attempting to say something else? It is not very clear from the above that you understand how a CDS works.

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95845-who-will-dow-jones-select-to-replace-aig-in-djia-index?source=feed#comment-256687 256687 You are correct in stating that the way the index is calculated, neither BRK, AAPL or GOOG can be added to the index without a serious split prior to the event. Currently IBM has the biggest influence on the index.

CrossProfit]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:19:19 -0400 You are correct in stating that the way the index is calculated, neither BRK, AAPL or GOOG can be added to the index without a serious split prior to the event. Currently IBM has the biggest influence on the index.

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95845-who-will-dow-jones-select-to-replace-aig-in-djia-index?source=feed#comment-256686 256686
The proceeds should be used to shore up social security, but this will probably never happen.

CrossProfit]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:15:36 -0400
The proceeds should be used to shore up social security, but this will probably never happen.

CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95806-america-buys-aig?source=feed#comment-256679 256679
CrossProfit]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 03:57:24 -0400
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95558-what-b-of-a-gets-by-passing-on-lehman-gobbling-up-merrill?source=feed#comment-255109 255109 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:19:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95443-buffett-s-call-on-railroads-right-on-track?source=feed#comment-254694 254694
CrossProfit]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 07:13:09 -0400
CrossProfit]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95405-what-s-the-bofa-merrill-synergy?source=feed#comment-254668 254668
It is true that the bottom line has taken a hit for the last three quarters but that doesn't mean in a year from now, after the dust settles, that MER won't be back on track.

MER didn't want to risk going it alone like LEH and for that alone...kudos to MER management.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No position.]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 05:32:14 -0400
It is true that the bottom line has taken a hit for the last three quarters but that doesn't mean in a year from now, after the dust settles, that MER won't be back on track.

MER didn't want to risk going it alone like LEH and for that alone...kudos to MER management.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No position.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95234-alternative-buyers-for-lehman-and-not-just-the-usual-suspects?source=feed#comment-254174 254174 BAC) will pay between $2 and $3 for Lehman"

You need new sources! ]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:43:46 -0400 BAC) will pay between $2 and $3 for Lehman"

You need new sources! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95176-campbell-continues-to-outperform-the-s-p-makes-new-52-week-high?source=feed#comment-253026 253026 seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
ttm EPS is 2.01 and ttm P/E is 19.50 (not 13.50)

Correct info: www.marketwatch.com/qu...

]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:20:38 -0400 seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
ttm EPS is 2.01 and ttm P/E is 19.50 (not 13.50)

Correct info: www.marketwatch.com/qu...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95201-recognizing-an-abnormal-market?source=feed#comment-252729 252729
"waiting for the buck reversal"
Well, vis a vis the Euro the Dollar is doing well, however Dollar/Yen is going the other way for the time being.

As for sector play, Roger is correct. Energy, in about three months time, will probably look like the best sector to rotate into now. Also, metals and mining (need to be a bit more selective here) will look good again in about three months time, though there are some stocks that haven't bottomed yet.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: Clients/associates going long both sectors and increasing new positions. Pure 'crack spread' plays, Solar and ADM excluded. Stocks 'in focus' appear on site's homepage (including IBM).]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:17:14 -0400
"waiting for the buck reversal"
Well, vis a vis the Euro the Dollar is doing well, however Dollar/Yen is going the other way for the time being.

As for sector play, Roger is correct. Energy, in about three months time, will probably look like the best sector to rotate into now. Also, metals and mining (need to be a bit more selective here) will look good again in about three months time, though there are some stocks that haven't bottomed yet.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: Clients/associates going long both sectors and increasing new positions. Pure 'crack spread' plays, Solar and ADM excluded. Stocks 'in focus' appear on site's homepage (including IBM).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95183-wake-up-copper-consuming-dragon?source=feed#comment-252407 252407 www.crossprofit.com/vi...

It's hard to tell who will be the buyer and who will be bought as smaller companies with strong balance sheets can actually buyout larger competitors. The next couple of months should be very interesting!

CrossProfit
Disclosure: Associates long a number of names in the metals & mining sector.]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:26:43 -0400 www.crossprofit.com/vi...

It's hard to tell who will be the buyer and who will be bought as smaller companies with strong balance sheets can actually buyout larger competitors. The next couple of months should be very interesting!

CrossProfit
Disclosure: Associates long a number of names in the metals & mining sector.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95176-campbell-continues-to-outperform-the-s-p-makes-new-52-week-high?source=feed#comment-252394 252394


Good company, but don't get in at the top.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No conflicts. ]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:10:38 -0400


Good company, but don't get in at the top.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No conflicts. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94936-imclone-s-icahn-is-holding-a-pistol-to-bristol?source=feed#comment-251336 251336
BMY is going to sit it out for two, three and even four weeks, or as long as it takes until the 'mysterious bidder makes a formal public offer.

There is no point in doing anything now. Think about it, as there are only two possibilities:
1) There is another buyer and this buyer is going to make an offer.
2) Icahn is full of hot air and BMY may have to call his bluff.

In either case, BMY sits and waits.
Option one would require further action only if the final bid is higher than $60. There is always a chance that it will be lower or none at all. If higher than $60, then BMY will have to assess how real it is and what are the chances of it closing. There is always a chance that the new bidder will pull the offer.

Either way, BMY should immediately withdraw its $60 offer if another offer is made. This way it can come back and offer a higher PPS if it feels that the competing bid would close OR come back with a LOWER offer if it feels that the bid is smoke and mirrors.

For shareholders sake, let's hope Icahn isn't playing games.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No conflicts.]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 08:20:11 -0400
BMY is going to sit it out for two, three and even four weeks, or as long as it takes until the 'mysterious bidder makes a formal public offer.

There is no point in doing anything now. Think about it, as there are only two possibilities:
1) There is another buyer and this buyer is going to make an offer.
2) Icahn is full of hot air and BMY may have to call his bluff.

In either case, BMY sits and waits.
Option one would require further action only if the final bid is higher than $60. There is always a chance that it will be lower or none at all. If higher than $60, then BMY will have to assess how real it is and what are the chances of it closing. There is always a chance that the new bidder will pull the offer.

Either way, BMY should immediately withdraw its $60 offer if another offer is made. This way it can come back and offer a higher PPS if it feels that the competing bid would close OR come back with a LOWER offer if it feels that the bid is smoke and mirrors.

For shareholders sake, let's hope Icahn isn't playing games.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: No conflicts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94973-bioscrip-investors-would-welcome-a-strategic-buyer?source=feed#comment-251323 251323
CrossProfit
Disclosure: no conflicts.]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 08:02:15 -0400
CrossProfit
Disclosure: no conflicts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94975-political-energy-policy-just-for-laughs?source=feed#comment-251321 251321 DRILLING MORE WILL ONLY MAKE A SMALL DENT IN THE TRADE DEFICIT and SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION.
There is no doubt that eventually XOM and CVX will be back up to the 90's.
See:
www.crossprofit.com/vi...
and
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

For some reason, most seem to buy these two when they are at their peak. The time to buy is when they are 20+% below where they will be in several months from now. In the interim; the dividend isn't much, but it's still a dividend.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: no current conflicts (bias - long in the near future, for clients/associates)]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 07:56:20 -0400 DRILLING MORE WILL ONLY MAKE A SMALL DENT IN THE TRADE DEFICIT and SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION.
There is no doubt that eventually XOM and CVX will be back up to the 90's.
See:
www.crossprofit.com/vi...
and
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

For some reason, most seem to buy these two when they are at their peak. The time to buy is when they are 20+% below where they will be in several months from now. In the interim; the dividend isn't much, but it's still a dividend.

CrossProfit
Disclosure: no current conflicts (bias - long in the near future, for clients/associates)]]>