CrossProfit_

Picking Some Stocks to Survive This Market

You may want to consider changing your overall strategy for the time being. For now it may be best to focus on short term gains to make up part of what you lost over the past six weeks.

Once there is more visibility or stability (as in a lower VIX), then going back to a long term horizon would seem to be more sustainable. However, if you really do intend to stick with your previous strategy, then perhaps you should be looking at companies that have already taken advantage of this mess and are doing so with a longer time horizon in mind.

A good example would be comparing BAC with JPM. BAC has taken a long term approach, whereas JPM has taken the quick return approach. Not saying that banks are up your alley, just pointing how two companies seem to be taking advantage of the current situation and the different ways they do so.

Should you decide to be more short term focused, as we believe is currently advisable, then an attempt to find the short term winners of the 'national bailout' should prove very lucrative. One possibility is some of the Monolines. Perhaps some energy stocks that have been beaten down so much that their future earnings at - shall we say - $50 a barrel are going to eventually force a 30% PPS increase. Be careful though as not all will jump after reporting earnings.

Besides, there is a very good chance that oil will be up 20% sometime in 2009. The logic is simple. If the 'national' and now 'global' bailout succeeds to stabilize the markets and world economy, then as evident throughout the downturn, every time there was a hint of a recovery, oil started to regain lost ground. On the other hand if the bailout fails, then no stock on the stock market is safe. In other words, if your buying anything, you are betting on the success of the bailout. If such is the case, then why not bet on the stocks that have already proven that they go up when the future is promising?

Notice how the term 'bet' is used and not 'invest'. Reflecting current market conditions is a contagious 'healthy' approach!

As an aside, you must find it ironic that Mr. Buffett advises to buy stocks now (or miss the spring as he put it) as he himself is doing. Now if only Merkel and every other investor could buy preferred with a guaranteed 10% coupon...we would all probably say the same!

Good luck.
CrossProfit

Bargain Buys For Patient Investors - Barron's

Andrew Barry is a senior editor (not analyst) at Barron's and has been writing articles like "top 10 list of the most attractively priced stocks around the globe" or articles as quoted above based on one or two random criteria.

To the best of our knowledge, Andrew Barry does not claim to have done any in depth analysis, nor is he claiming that he has consulted with analysts prior to writing these articles.

The purpose of these type of articles is just to highlight that certain companies are sitting on a ton of cash or are trading at historically low P/E's. It doesn't tell you what the cash is for or why the P/E is so low, yet suggests that there may be a buying opportunity.

Do your own DD, nothing more. Most importantly, just because the name 'Barron's' appears on the article, doesn't make it any better or worse than any other article appearing on Seeking Alpha.

CrossProfit

Who Will Dow Jones Select to Replace AIG in DJIA Index?

bobby_h,
You are correct in stating that the way the index is calculated, neither BRK, AAPL or GOOG can be added to the index without a serious split prior to the event. Currently IBM has the biggest influence on the index.

CrossProfit

Who Will Dow Jones Select to Replace AIG in DJIA Index?

Over the next several years, once the loan has been repaid, the Treasury will be selling back shares of AIG to the public, mutual funds and institutional investors. By leaving 20% in the hands of the public, there is no need for the immediate replacement. Total market cap (including the 79.9% shareholder's holding) is an issue though.

The proceeds should be used to shore up social security, but this will probably never happen.

CrossProfit

Alternative Buyers for Lehman (and Not Just the Usual Suspects)

"Here is what I am hearing from my broker sources: Bank of America (BAC) will pay between $2 and $3 for Lehman"

You need new sources!

What's Behind the Market's Rise?

Nice article.

David White,
The gist of the article is that markets are going higher no matter what due to excess liquidity, so according to the context the author wrote what he meant - in other words it should mimic oil but it doesn't - just up all the time.

Saul Sterman
CrossProfit

Taking Some Profits in Apple

jmmx,

See our first comment on this article, about five comments before yours - explains all.

Taking Some Profits in Apple

This is a repeat article.
See:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
from 05/13/2008!
There are 20+ comments on the previous identical Seeking Alpha article.

CrossProfit

Apple: Taking Some Chips Off the Table at Current Prices

Chad,

Smart investors know not to gamble and when to lock in profits. If you got in at around 120, then we agree with your overall investment style and locking in profits at around 188 on part of the position is prudent.

We also agree with 'dig', meaning that a likelihood of a spike between now and the end of June is fairly high. We put this at 211 and would lock in additional profits at that range, only to go back in on a retreat. If the retreat doesn't happen, then just say to yourself "never regret a profit".

See www.crossprofit.com/vi...
for chart and right click on chart for more options. EOL (end of line) was at 211 before February update and may be revised back again, depending on next earnings call.

CrossProfit

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Regarding Netflix (NFLX) see both;
www.crossprofit.com/se...
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

Slowing growth is what management is talking about which in return should eventually reduce the P/E multiple. In order to maintain a 35/40 multiple, there can NOT be any signs of weakness as we are seeing now.

The 50+% boost from BBI's demise was overdone.

Toudo.com and YOUKU (free Chinese sites) are still free and when they start charging customers (and pay royalties) they will not only be legitimate competition but will cost less than NFLX. Their cost structure is lower and are willing to work on smaller margins.

AMZN and AAPL don't have the traffic that these two have outside the U.S.... also, both are upgrading their servers for faster on-line streaming (no need to download).

It is beginning to look like a five-way-horse-race, assuming BBI gives up altogether.

CrossProfit

Pfizer Fizzles, Fast Money Recap (4/18/08)

Regarding Costco (COST) see our previous comment here;
seekingalpha.com/artic...
AND MORE TO THE POINT - here;
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Regarding AAPL see;
www.crossprofit.com/vi...
and comment here;
seekingalpha.com/artic...

CrossProfit

RBC Expects Strong Beat from Apple

See our previous *comment* from January 2008 on an AAPL article here;

seekingalpha.com/artic...

See our additional previous *comment* from February 2008 on an article here;

seekingalpha.com/artic...

"We trust that the above eases the temporary pain of long term AAPL shareholders. If you haven't sold until now, then we would hold (now @$120 PS)."

Well, we didn't call the bottom of the bottom ($120) accurately (!) as AAPL went lower a couple of bucks, but for what it's worth, the call was accurate enough to be actionable.

Read previous comments carefully in order to get a handle on how to maximize investing in AAPL and the fallout ramifications for RETAIL in general.

CrossProfit (consensus)

Why iPhone Unlocking is Growing Every Day

Lisa,

If you want to understand how AAPL stock price and sentiment work, see:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
or the updated original article:
www.crossprofit.com/ar...

Yes, AAPL will go back up eventually, but based on consumer confidence and NOT necessarily EPS.

As the article states, we saw this coming back in September/October 2007. We also forecast that AAPL will rebound before the end of 2008. As we are not prophets, exactly when consumer confidence changes is unknown. Just follow the consumer confidence numbers and watch AAPL go up or down in tandem.

See www.crossprofit.com/vi...

We do not envision a decoupling of this phenomena any time soon and expect this to continue throughout 2008.

We trust that the above eases the temporary pain of long term AAPL shareholders. If you haven't sold until now, then we would hold (now @$120 PS).

CrossProfit (consensus)

Apple Sitting on Excess Inventory?

It is all about consumer confidence. See article "The Overconfident Consumer" (click on article beneath AAPL 2008 chart) here:
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

You can see the same article on Seeking Alpha, but read the comments regarding the change in title...here:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Saul Sterman
CrossProfit

BTW, have you noticed the latest consumer confidence reports? When the figures start to swing the other way, it will be time to buy again. There is absolutely nothing wrong with AAPL as a company and sales going a little this way or that way do not justify a run to 200 or a fall back to 130.

Just read the article and you will have a clear picture how AAPL trades.

Good luck to all.

Drop in Japan PC Sales May Spell Trouble for Industry - AP

OOOPS! Our mistake...just noticed the date on your article "11/05".

Retract first part of our previous comment.