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  • Antigenics: Insider Buying Alert [View article]
    This is NOT a good sign. If there was going to be a sale of the company, insiders wouldn't be trading at all. A 10K buy/sell is nothing as they are issued about the same for zero.

    This means that any possible sale of the company is 60 days off.

    CrossProfit
    www.crossprofit.com
    Sep 09 05:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating Cancer Drugs at the FDA [View article]
    From an investors perspective, being that AGEN has received approval and is slated to begin sales in Russia at $2.35 per share this is like buying a long term option that never expires! In addition, AGEN is pursuing EU approval for 2009, thus temporarily politely sidestepping the FDA.

    1) AGEN has already done a private placement giving it enough cash to run through 2009, including the additional costs associated with EU approval.
    2) Sales to Russia should start generating income in Q4 2008. U.S. export license is now holding up the works! This is a bureaucratic conundrum at best, though it does appear to be moving along, albeit, at a snails pace.
    3) All AGEN needs is an additional $80M in sales on top of current licensing fees to turn profitable. Once that happens, AGEN triples, and remains a long term hold.
    4) Accumulating shares now is pretty much a sure thing or as sure as any sure thing can be on the stock market. As mentioned above, it is like an option that never expires. Just one of the three in the pipeline needs to get final FDA approval for AGEN to easily realize ten bagger status. The float is relatively small.
    5) AGEN is not your standard biotechnology company that is working on something that may or may not pan out. AGEN has the product, has revenue and needs to work through the regulatory mess in the U.S., largely created by being novel and not having precedence to go by.
    6) This is a very different situation when comparing to peers, meaning that the risk factor (of total drug failure leading to no product) is greatly reduced.
    7) The only fly in the ointment is the timing. AGEN could jump next week or it could take a year. On a risk/reward basis, as we are projecting a triple, a year isn't that long. A week would be nicer!

    CrossProfit (consensus)
    New evaluation line to be posted shortly. See:
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    Disclosure: long AGEN stock.
    May 28 10:43 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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