CrossProfit_

Plenty of Bidding for Borders

Todd,
How do you get to $12 per share?

We get to $8.50. See:
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

Just based on the basics for FY2008 (ended February 2008) what multiples are you applying and to what? We're not asking for a full breakdown, just a rough ballpark - back of the napkin kind of calculation. Seriously, you're a smart guy and we would really like to know because obviously we are missing something big here (and it wouldn't be the first time!).

Income Statement
Total Revenue 1,347.10 3,820.90 3,723.60
Gross Profit 385.80 936.50 950.80
Operating Inc 125.10 6.60 8.50
Net Income 64.70 -157.40 -151.30

Balance Sheet
Total Current 1,506.00 1,506.00 1,723.60
Total Assets 2,302.70 2,302.70 2,613.40
Total Current 1,467.80 1,467.80 1,595.90
Total Liabilities 1,825.80 1,825.80 1,971.40
Total Equity 476.90 476.90 642.00

Cash Flow
Net Income/Starting Line 64.70 -157.40 -151.30
Cash from Operating Activities 273.70 94.10 46.90
Cash from Investing Activities -28.80 -127.50 -182.60
Cash from Financing Activities -242.70 -9.40 173.60
Net Change in Cash -4.50 -47.60 35.90

Key Stats & Ratios
Quarterly(Feb '08) + Annual(2008) + Annual TTM
Net Profit Margin 5.32% -0.48% -0.48%
Operating Margin 9.29% 0.17% 0.17%
EBITD Margin - 3.05% 3.05%
Return on Average Assets
11.58% -0.75% -0.75%
Return on Average Equity
64.63% -3.31% -3.31%

Thanks,
CrossProfit

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Regarding Netflix (NFLX) see both;
www.crossprofit.com/se...
www.crossprofit.com/vi...

Slowing growth is what management is talking about which in return should eventually reduce the P/E multiple. In order to maintain a 35/40 multiple, there can NOT be any signs of weakness as we are seeing now.

The 50+% boost from BBI's demise was overdone.

Toudo.com and YOUKU (free Chinese sites) are still free and when they start charging customers (and pay royalties) they will not only be legitimate competition but will cost less than NFLX. Their cost structure is lower and are willing to work on smaller margins.

AMZN and AAPL don't have the traffic that these two have outside the U.S.... also, both are upgrading their servers for faster on-line streaming (no need to download).

It is beginning to look like a five-way-horse-race, assuming BBI gives up altogether.

CrossProfit

Amazon Handles Downtime Well

Get a heart! (Or maybe a decent girlfriend...)
So 1 out of 365 days GOOG decided to get in touch with its feminine side, big deal!

(Private comment, not related to CrossProfit website.)

Amazon Now Trading on Technicals - Not Fundamentals

Well though out article. This must have taken a lot of your time to write and this is much appreciated.

In your previous article you recommended that longs close out positions at $70. In an earlier CrossProfit article we were advising not to short at $62, stock would go to 70, then 90 and settle at 80 for a while. So far this is what has transpired ($89 is close enough). As mentioned in the article, as the short percentages decrease, the chances of a return to 45 increase. At current short percentages there is still a chance of a spike to 150 ($2.8B)! Note the end of the article that a spike down is to the 53-56 range, then up again, not straight down to 45 - read carefully.

Read the article [AMZN Amazon: How to Short Amazon] carefully as this was assembled from internal memos written by four CrossProfit analysts and I didn't do a great job, due to lack of time - at the time, on the re-write/editing.

(The article should be accessible from the Homepage. If not, search by symbol = AMZN).

Saul Sterman
CrossProfit

The Grinch Stole Christmas from Brick and Mortar Retailers...But Online Sellers Are Smiling

No mention of Overstock.com? More troubling is that OSTK is silent as well, not a word about what was supposed to save the company from chapter 11. Byrne has to go, the sooner the better before it is too late.

Based on past behavior, if OSTK had a good season we would have heard about it by now and in a big/flashy way. I’m worried.

Disclosure: Opinion of CrossProfit analyst and may not reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
www.crossprofit.com

The Short Case For Amazon

We don't expect AMZN to go much above 36 over the next 12 months. It will rally; the question is when? Get out at 36 if you can. AMZN has been on a prolonged downward spiral due to the markets applying lower PE's for this sector. Institutional investors are in for the long haul and some are still up over a 100% at current levels (Jan 02 $10-$12).

Disclosure: This comment was written by a CrossProfit analyst. This does reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
www.crossprofit.com