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  • Is Netflix a Short Term Sell or a Long Term Buy?  [View article]
    “absent a competitive threat to the economic wellbeing of the business, which we don’t see, we have the resources to make one large strategic investment and we’ve chosen to make that investment in growing our ability to deliver content over the Internet to TV sets and other devices, in lieu of reinvest doubling down in the physical world.”

    see both;
    crossprofit.com/search......
    crossprofit.com/view_s...

    Slowing growth is what management is talking about which in return should eventually reduce the P/E multiple. In order to maintain a 35/40 multiple, there can NOT be any signs of weakness as we are seeing now.

    The 50+% boost from BBI's demise was overdone.

    Toudo.com and YOUKU (free Chinese sites) are still free and when they start charging customers (and pay royalties) they will not only be legitimate competition but will cost less than NFLX. Their cost structure is lower and are willing to work on smaller margins.

    AMZN and AAPL don't have the traffic that these two have outside the U.S.... also, both are upgrading their servers for faster on-line streaming (no need to download or mail DVD's etc.).

    It is beginning to look like a five-way-horse-race, assuming BBI gives up altogether. If NFLX doesn't see a competitive threat on the horizon, then they should get their eyesight checked!

    These type of comments sort of remind us of BA's comments about Airbus when they first got started...and that didn't take as long as the rocket scientists were predicting at the time!

    CrossProfit
    Apr 22 08:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Regarding Netflix (NFLX) see both;
    www.crossprofit.com/se...
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    Slowing growth is what management is talking about which in return should eventually reduce the P/E multiple. In order to maintain a 35/40 multiple, there can NOT be any signs of weakness as we are seeing now.

    The 50+% boost from BBI's demise was overdone.

    Toudo.com and YOUKU (free Chinese sites) are still free and when they start charging customers (and pay royalties) they will not only be legitimate competition but will cost less than NFLX. Their cost structure is lower and are willing to work on smaller margins.

    AMZN and AAPL don't have the traffic that these two have outside the U.S.... also, both are upgrading their servers for faster on-line streaming (no need to download).

    It is beginning to look like a five-way-horse-race, assuming BBI gives up altogether.

    CrossProfit
    Apr 22 08:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Is Blockbuster About to Blow a Circuit? [View article]
    Great title!
    Apr 15 11:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Vultures Swoop in on Circuit City [View article]
    "Other players, who have been sitting on the sideline, now may be forced to show their hands and open their wallets."

    Can you name one? Even a guess will do.

    Do you know the store/real estate breakdown? Have you looked at the free cash flow, balance sheet and debt structure etc.?

    Enlighten us please!

    CrossProfit
    Apr 15 08:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Tough Year Ahead For Specialty Retailers  [View article]
    Very interesting read.

    The accepted sector classification (retail or specialty retail or consumer non-durables) for the above mentioned companies is as follows;

    ANN - Ann Taylor Stores Corp - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    BBI - Blockbuster Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    BBBY - Bed Bath & Beyond Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    BBY - Best Buy Co Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    CAB - Cabela's Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    CC - Circuit Cty Strs Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    COST - Costco Wholesale Corp - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    FL - Foot Locker Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    GPS - Gap Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    HD - Home Depot Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    LL - Lumber Liquidators` Inc. - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    NKE - Nike Inc Cl B - Consumer Non Durables
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    PETM - Petsmart Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    PIR - Pier 1 Imports Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    RSH - Radioshack Corp - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    SKS - Saks Holdings Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    SPLS - Staples Inc - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    TIF - Tiffany & Co - Specialty Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    WMT - Wal-Mart Stores Inc - Retail
    www.crossprofit.com/vi...

    Please check your Hemscott for correct classifications.

    SA editors, please correct symbol link list in accordance with alphabetical list provided in this comment.

    CrossProfit
    Apr 14 08:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster's New Paradigm and Its Impact On Competitors [View article]
    The picture at the head of the article says it all. Either there is going to be a fumble, perhaps a painful touchdown, but everyone is going to get bruised throughout the play!
    Nov 15 17:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Shares May Rally Now, But Brand Value Eroding [View article]
    borisb,

    You forgot to mention BBI's download learning/experimental acquisition. Both NFLX and BBI (and MOVI) are aware of the download challenge and are not sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

    George is annoyed that neither have had the decency of revealing to him their secrets!
    Oct 28 17:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster's Year of the Dog [View article]
    Amit Chokshi,

    It looks like a set up for a short squeeze. Institutions have sold 12.7M shares and have bought 28.2M shares over the past 3 months for a net gain of 15.5M. Net holdings are up to 126M.

    Short interest has dropped from 35% to 30% (16/11/06) to 23% (22/11/06). The smart money is out. A deluxe short squeeze occurs when a stock is trading near its 52 week high. BBI is at a 52 week high!

    I totally agree with your analysis that the increased volatility has to do more with shorts than anything else. I disagree with my CrossProfit (NY) colleague.

    Disclosure: Personal opinion of a CrossProfit (IL) analyst and does NOT reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
    www.crossprofit.com
    Nov 23 04:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Blockbuster's Year of the Dog [View article]
    On 11/20/06 SA contributor, stockreply.blogspot.co... strongly recommended shorting BBI @4.75. Since then BBI dipped a bit and then shot up to 5.26. What has been made public is that the CEO purchased 220,000 shares (below 4.75 - guestimate) and that BBI may have sold off its money losing operations in Taiwan.

    This does NOT explain a 16+% jump on a whopping 12M volume (usually 1.7M). This is a full 6% of all outstanding shares trading hands in one session whilst maintaining the higher price level. If anything, maybe ‘Taiwan’ is buying BBI! At a 1B market cap it is possible that BBI is selling itself off piecemeal. First divesture of Taiwan, then the U.K. and they may have a buyout offer for the U.S. as a solo business. This would explain the CEO buying shares now. Let’s face it, a PE of 19 with little growth prospects smells like a Hedge Fund is behind the scenes.

    All of the above is pure conjecture and there are no conflicts of interest.

    Disclosure: Personal opinion of a CrossProfit analyst and does not reflect the opinion of CrossProfit.com.
    www.crossprofit.com
    Nov 22 19:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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