The Yellow Rose Street Beat

http://rosesryellow.blogspot.com

19 Comments

    • An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks [view article]
      its value. Typo... Jul 18 07:57 PM
    • An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks [view article]
      Some replies:

      First and foremost I want to make a brief comment to GH. How is bashing Seeking Alpha helpful to anyone? There are some very intelligent posts on here. Not all... but some very good ones. In fact, when I am trying to learn about a company I am not familiar with I first look at the charts, then the key statistics/analyst estimates, and then go directly to the financial blogs in yahoo. Many are Seeking Alpha articles.

      The blogs offer the retail investor a deeper look... if you don't like, don't agree, or already know everything written in them then don't read them! However, what you will not tend to find is unwarranted, self-driven bashing (often the case in message boards). Also, it is not the voice of "authority".... which is a good thing because many of the analysts I believe have their own agendas. The ISRG downgrade at 250? I called that a bluff (on my site) because I know ISRG has a solid business and I know that the stock keeps getting downgraded by some analyst for the same reason and then rises before earnings. It is up 10% since the "downgrade".... a nice little trade.

      Everyone has to be able to think for themselves here. If you're looking for an "authority figure" you will either have to pay them a lot of money (and they may still be wrong) or you have to wonder if they are really acting in your best interest. The Seeking Alpha articles include thoughtful information in a concise place. Not bad.

      Ok... now that I got that out of my system...

      Aalen: Conference calls are like body language: it tells you the tone of the conference, how people feel about the company, and whether people really are impressed or not. The TSL CC is a perfect example. When GS asks questions I listen. When they gave a disapproving hint about the cash flow generation that meant TSL was in trouble at least short-term. The downgrade did not surprise me bc of the CC.

      The CC also tells you about the management, details, so much there

      Puerlfan:
      Excellent points. This is why an article like this can be valuable... their are people who know thin film and other facets of the solar industry like no one else. I have to admit the prices of FSLR and ENER had me focus more on silicon based then thin film... however when one looks at the dependability and cash flow of the thin films (FSLR at least) it becomes clear why institutions have been holding them more so far overall.

      frflyr: Solar will be there but don't discount wind or any of the others... There's a reason T.Boone Pickens is investing so much in wind farms... also nice addition with the info

      Others: If I didn't mention your stock in detail it is because I chose to look at a reasonable group of stocks and focus primarily on those that are currently profitable. I expect that there will eventually be pruning and consolidation in this industry and that it is still too early for anyone to tell how it will work out. For now all are in play... solid fundamentals and cash flow are pluses... but so is new technology.

      Overall... if this article taught you anything you did not know or made you think then it was successful in its aim. Think of Seeking Alpha and other blog sites as an investment community and a place to generate and share ideas... not the final stop in decision making... and I think you will be more likely to unlock it's value and succeed.       Jul 18 07:52 PM
    • An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks [view article]
      I will try to answer some of the other questions posed this weekend Jul 18 03:09 AM
    • An In-Depth Look at Solar Stocks [view article]
      GH:
      It's interesting that seeking alpha chose this title for the article. The original article on my blog is titled: Long Term Bull Market-Solar. I am appreciative of Seeking Alpha for creating a forum to express and share ideas... however I personally would not have been quite as bold in my title...

      I have a background in biochemistry (UCLA)and actually am best acquainted with the bioscience and pharma... although I have used my scientific knowledge and thinking to sharpen focus on broader swabs of the market. You will find the science breakdown included and also that as I mention this is not the "be all end all article", if there is such a thing, but intended as an investigative glimpse that is meant as a foundation to be built upon over time. I already added a subsequent follow up article on the issue of cash flow and the GS downgrade of TSL at the end of the article (under top posts)-LT Bull Market Solar. I expect to add more over time as I see solar being around for a long time to come...       Jul 18 03:08 AM
    • UBS Analyst: Survey Shows 3G iPhone Poses Little Threat to BlackBerry [view article]
      Just for fun I added a survey on RIMM vs AAPL on my site. It's on the right hand side if you scroll down a bit. I have to believe the results will be at least as informative as those presented in the article... Jul 16 02:34 AM
    • UBS Analyst: Survey Shows 3G iPhone Poses Little Threat to BlackBerry [view article]
      Businesses care about productivity, dependability, and price. Especially in tough economic conditions. Does the Iphone make employees more productive? Perhaps... however the honus is on AAPL to unseat the champ. With such a huge potential market internationally and so much money being spent on RD RIM is still in the drivers seat. The stock haircut was to be expected but at some price RIMM becomes a bargain even if you imagine the worst case scenario.... it getting close at aroung 100 a share in my opinion...

      BTW for those interested google the Yellow Rose Street Beat or click on the website to the left. Many have told me the site is informative and it is fun...       Jul 15 10:51 PM
    • Owens-Illinois Continues to Grow [view article]
      to the left of the page rather. Jul 07 11:47 AM
    • Owens-Illinois Continues to Grow [view article]
      I am looking heavily at OI and plan do listen to the last CC and investigate further. We are in a bear market and many are concerned about the transportation costs eating into margins and perhaps other factors (is glass more expensive than plastic?)...

      John Montgomery, one of my favorite mutual fund managers, has held this for quite some time based on its quants. I still have to do the heavy DD but it is looking very promising...

      BTW... for those interested I have a financial website at the address above.......       Jul 07 11:46 AM
    • A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar [view article]
      I never buy a co. without listening to at least one CC. I listened to CSIQ's in early Spring (somewhere around there... when the stock was at 19) and I could tell immediately that this was a top flight company. That it would double in a few months... that I didn't know,,, but so much can be gleaned from conference calls... time and time again. Jun 19 09:23 AM
    • It's Not Too Late to Buy Coal [view article]
      The run has been huge and a pullback will come but here's a tidy recipe...

      By some with GTC stops. If the trend reverses the losses are calculated and minimal. If the trend continues move up the stops...       Jun 19 02:11 AM
    • Rising Tide of Level 3 Assets: “Disaster Waiting to Happen” [view article]
      typo associated with level 2, not level 1 May 16 02:07 AM
    • Rising Tide of Level 3 Assets: “Disaster Waiting to Happen” [view article]
      Excellent article. The question is: as long as these institutions are able to hide their losses in level 3 assets and no one, including the fed, is pressing them to rewrite these assets for what they are truly worth... clearly at a maximum the "comparable market value" associated with level 1, then when does it start to matter regarding the stock price. The Fed is even fudging inflation, employment, and productivity numbers <"food prices increased significantly but overall inflation was in check because of... declining energy prices...") etc. which makes me think that the fed is really running scared. Give the masses a few bad numbers and then fudge the rest so it looks like things are a bit weak but generally mixed... and then the stocks go up and panic subsides and the vix stabilizes...

      It's like a fraternity deciding to change the rules because they don't like the real ones and/or they are afraid of exposing the full ugly truth and cause panic. And then all the hedge funds and mutuals just play the game... knowing that the fed has their back... and everybody keeps it copacetic... and you learn to accept it until...
      eventually sooner or later treasuries = level 3 = run for the hills and the fed has to raise rates ... then the stock market crashes anyway just next year not this one...       May 16 02:06 AM
    • Potash, Mosaic Are Looking Fertile [view article]
      I have never ever ever ever heard a CC like POT last one. I mean, it was beyond the point of "great quarter guys". It was: we've been waiting 20 years as a company for this moment to arrive and now it has. The growth here will be scary good. Even with the run-up.

      Yet POT will likely fall due to one major factor: Sector Rotation. AG and Oil sectors have been the place the big money has chosen as the safe haven in recent times. They have run enormously and the money has to go elsewhere for a bit. In fact I think that POT and MOS and AGU would have fallen further if not for the unbelievable quarters. If your willing to deal with some short-term stock price drops the dips here represent buying opportunities. However I like the author would buy in pieces here... I am considering opening a small position here and would add more if it drops to the 170s or lower...       Apr 29 03:21 AM
    • Ag Stocks Could Have Steep Pullbacks [view article]
      Is he writing this article to help record his own truthful convictions or is he writing this article because he wants the price to pull back to buy more shares.

      I don't know him so I don't know. Anyone who has been following him for a while might be able to provide some useful insight here.       Apr 25 08:17 PM
    • Baird: Sigma Designs Losing Major Customers [view article]
      revenue. Not same revenue. Typo. Apr 21 03:49 PM
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