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Martinius

Martinius
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  • Philip Morris Stock Analysis [View article]
    I think a big question here should be 'What's your investment horizon'. In the short and medium term I do not think PM is a great buy. However for me personally I am looking at 30 years horizon and with that in mind I've bought PM on a dip some time last year. PM is probably the best positioned tabacco company worldwide and while it's a declining market, its products are highly addictive (took me years to finally quit smoking) and while western world is getting ever more concerned with health issues, in Asia where I spend a lot of my time I see a different picture and I believe (and numbers support this) that PM will be able to decline at a slower rate compared to say MO, while compensating the loss in volume by higher margins. I believe it will be able to do so for many more years to come and while a rising dollar might give some headwinds in the near and medium future with a 30 year horizon there will certainly be times where there is tailwind as well. Till then the 5% dividend will do nicely.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse looks for the next spinoff candidates [View news story]
    share price increase doesn't equal growth.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GBP: The Party Is Over? [View article]
    Thank you sir for sharing your story. I found it interesting to read. So my comment for a change is not on the facts. It's on the graphics used to state your story. They are of such low quality, they are pretty much unreadable. While it says 'click to enlarge' all this does is open the same low resolution picture in a new screen, zooming it confirms that the quality is simply too low to make it readable. While the graphs with orange and purple line are still somewhat readable the other two are simply not, I am unable to read a single number on the scale so the line becomes pretty much worthless.
    Please do not get my wrong, I'm not attacking or flaming you, I'm simply making this point cause you might be unaware of it and it's something that should be relatively easy to fix in future articles. I'll keep reading!
    Jan 16, 2014. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Investing 101: Smart Money, Dumb Money - What's In Your Pocket? [View article]
    For Indians, and other Asians buying gold is not contrarian, it's simply cultural. When you have money left-over, you buy gold. If you wanna show your wealth you buy gold. Gold is money, gold is a value store, gold is their safety net for worse days to come. They might buy more cause it's cheaper than a year ago, but they do not buy cause they have knowledge of the price being higher a year from now.

    Besides that I agree with Mike, gold has been a flee to safety for some people who believed the world economy was gonna implode. Now it seems the euro is not gonna fall apart soon, American economy is getting back on it's feet, people feel less scared. People see stock markets rising and sell gold to jump back in equities afraid to miss the boat. Bond yields are on the rise, and I think if that trend will continue, defense investors will simply sell their gold and go back to bonds.
    Jun 19, 2013. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reinvest Growing Dividends: Don't Fall For Big Yields [View article]
    Firstly, thanks for your input. But some things are not really clear to me. You mention in the example 'volatility' , yet you do not make this any factor in the whole comparison.

    So what we are left with is an example of how reinvesting dividend is very powerful over 30 years. I could not agree more. But frankly, it would have been more interesting if both reinvested dividends. It would also more accurately support your story.

    An example that comes to my mind that I had to deal with a while back would be. Altria vs. PM if your investment horizon is indeed 30 years.
    Jun 3, 2013. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rich Investor's Secret To Buying Low [View article]
    Reading this article, I get a feeling it's more of a personal brag on making the right call than an actual advise towards the readers. Nevertheless, good call.
    My 2 cents is look for an exit strategy. Without having done ANY research, the PE of 508.20 scared the crap out of me. But hey... I thought Google was expensive when it first hit 500$.
    May 22, 2013. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement In A World Without Social Security [View article]
    I have read a couple of articles like these. I like them as I have roughly 30 years to go till I want to retire. But I think all off them have a fatal flaw.

    U take the 4% rule and then compensate 3% inflation a year. Fair enough. And for sake of argument I will assume the 1 million and 1,25 million are correct as well. My problem is with the 40k or 31k a year. At no point do you mention what this really means...

    You are looking ahead at 40k, 30 years from now. Using the same 3% inflation you use. A quick and maybe inaccurate calculation tells me that that number will constitute roughly 16k today... We'd really better pray social security is around to help paying the bills, or there will be not much left to pass on to the next generation.
    Apr 28, 2013. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Recent Collapse And Approaching All-Time High [View article]
    Another reason why I can't see gold go much lower than where we are now, are the actual costs of getting it out of the ground. Much has been published about that lately. But the all in costs are somewhere in the ballpark of 1200 - 1300 $. As I am typing this, gold is climbing back to 1400$. Even this would be an irrational margin.
    Apr 16, 2013. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Treasuries, It's Not About The Interest Rate [View article]
    I'm not the kind of person who likes to comment. I've read probably 1000s of articles on this website alone, and I have never felt the urge to do anything more than soak up the info. But I can't stop myself now.

    I am not going to fall into the trap of telling who is right or wrong.

    To Mr. Morphic, I'd like to make two small points:
    - the whole intend of the article is explaining why certain bond strategies might be a good HEDGE against worst case scenarios in the stock market. At no point is the author saying we should put all our money in long term bonds.
    - secondly... the language which u use to address other people is quite appalling, and I say that being Dutch (we tend to not beat around the bush) . Why do you feel the need to be rude against the author, it really doesn't help your case in any way. Just makes you seem like a very unlikable person.

    To the author. Thinks for the article, I enjoyed reading it. I think at current interest levels it's still a very expensive insurance, Morphic would have a point if he had simply said bonds are not a good investment at the moment. But I will keep the idea in mind in ever interest rates rise. It might be a good strategy to implement. Though I only believe this strategy to be of any interest for people under 35 of age (as I am). Who often do not have the substantial amount of money needed for this strategy available to put aside for 30 years. Anyhow. I want to thank you for the idea
    Apr 2, 2013. 01:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9 Comments
16 Likes