Engineer by Trade. To me the saying "Don't try to time the market" applies only to the person who is too busy to track market activity daily. Or at least the one who feels okay about losing big money because EVERYBODY is in the same sinking boat. That said, I do understand WHY it is touted as truth. The getting back in part can sometimes be harder than the getting out part! Won't say too much more on this except...since late Oct 2010 I have managed to gain 39% using my method (and trust me I took some early big losses because I was still figuring out how this market timing thing works.). The method is ideally suited to IRA portfolios since there is no tax penalty for trading often. Part of my method involves the HDGE etf, but not in the way you are supposing...HDGE is actually a dog of a fund--therein lies the secret!