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almanack

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  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth: Johnson & Johnson Vs. Eli Lilly [View article]
    Nice article...

    You made one typo which might make the information hard for people to understand. The chart which compares JNJ's and ELI's dividend yield and growth rate is mislabeled. It currently lists JNJ and JNJ instead of JNJ and ELI. Of course, they could go to any financial website and figure out which is which....
    May 29 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Chasing Yield In Retirement? [View article]
    @Adam and @ Chowder

    Thank you both for that...
    Apr 10 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Chasing Yield In Retirement? [View article]
    I just confirmed that S&P Capital IQ has a credit rating of B+ for OHI. But how did you determine that S&P Capital IQ raised the rating last week? Is there some sort of alert system that you can set up or did you just happen to check it out and notice that they put out a new report on April 5th?
    Apr 10 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All About The Fundamentals [View instapost]
    Thanks - I too have a Fidelity account, so I'll look there for the Capital IQ data...
    Feb 18 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All About The Fundamentals [View instapost]
    Hi Chowder
    Great information (as always) – thanks! Thank you very much for taking us through the steps that you take in order to select a stock. I have a few questions about your process:

    (1) Current PE and Historical PE -- Where are you getting your data from? I am looking at FAST Graphs. It indicates that IBM’s current and historic PE’s are 15.3 and 19.9, respectively. Your article states that the PE’s are 11.1 and 16.6. Granted, you wrote this a few weeks ago, but the data wouldn’t have changed that much…

    (2) Best discounts to fair value – You said that you are using S&P Capital IQ for these ratings. May I presume that you are gathering this data from FAST Graphs? If so, can you tell me where (specifically) you are finding this. I can’t seem to locate this info.

    (3) B+ or better by S&P Capital IQ – You mentioned that you are looking for stocks with a B+ or better by S&P Capital IQ. Again, I am presuming that you are getting the S&P Capital IQ ratings from FAST Graphs. Can you point me as to where on FAST Graphs this data resides?

    (4) VL – You seemed to indicate recently that you’ve moved away from Value Line (due to pricing issues). May I presume then, that you are using Morningstar’s ratings instead of relying on VL for their 1 & 2 ratings?

    Thanks in advance for your reply and assistance. And again, thanks much for all the great info that you share.

    David
    Feb 18 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Ignore 52-Week Lows [View article]
    Excellent article. I couldn't have said it better
    Jan 21 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You May Think That The Market Is Overvalued But These Dividend Champions Are Not: Part 1 [View article]
    Mr. Carnevale,

    Thank you very much for yet another excellent article.
    Nov 15 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Project Cost, Completion Timing Issues Continue To Take Toll On The Stock [View article]
    >>>S&P Capital IQ rates SO a BUY, and to earn $2.72 in 2013, and improve by 5% to $2.86 in 2014. Whereas the 12-month price target above is $40, Capital IQ estimates $49 (which including an unchanged dividend, based upon Friday's close @ $42.46, is an estimated total return of $8.57, or 17.5%)<<<<

    ======================...

    @richjoy403 not directly related to this thread.... You are referencing Capital IQ's information. May I ask where you are obtaining that data? Is it from FAST Graphs (I believe that's who Mr. Carnavale uses for FAST Graph's data) or are you getting it elsewhere. If the latter, may I ask where?
    Oct 27 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 [View article]
    Chuck and David Fish,

    I agree with both of you. I believe that those people who are unwilling or unable to delve in and manage their portfolios would be better off just selecting index funds. Also, being average is better than being below average -- as you know, 80% of the managed mutual funds underperform their benchmark.

    I also agree that Mr. Buffett's comments re index investing are based out of frustration...
    Aug 30 09:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 [View article]
    Mr. Carnevale,

    Thank you very much for another excellent article. I truly enjoy reading everything that you write. I greatly appreciate your willingness to offer so much information. I agree with Mr. Van Knapp's comment "Your long experience in the financial services industry gives you more credibility than the average writer around here. You can weave practical experience with academic theory, or perhaps more accurately you can interpret each in the light of the other, because you have experience in both."

    In your article, you stated that "...I believe that designing and building a successful investment portfolio is not only complex, but requires hard and intelligently based work and effort..."

    I think that this is a sound, logical approach (for anyone reading seekingalpha.com.) However, I find it difficult to believe that the vast majority of the population (for instance: those who do not closely follow the financial markets; those who just invest their money into their company's 401(k) plan, etc.) would have the skills nor the time to appropriately construct their own portfolios anywhere near as well as you of for that matter most of the people reading the information on Seeking Alpha.

    I think that a portfolio constructed of a few low-cost index funds, rebalanced periodically, is a reasonable approach for those people who do not have the aptitude, the time, nor the interest to construct and closely monitor their own portfolios. Furthermore, since (for many people) the vast majority of their portfolios will be in the company's retirement account, they are likely limited to the options that are available to them there.

    Warren Buffett has repeatedly suggested that most people would be better off in index funds. Here's a couple of quotes from Mr. Buffett:

    1996: "Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals."

    2007: "A very low-cost index is going to beat a majority of the amateur-managed money or professionally-managed money..."

    While I agree with you that for those of us who closely monitor our portfolios, adherence to modern portfolio theory may be (as Mr. Munger stated) "twaddle," but I think a simple portfolio constructed of a few low-fee index funds, rebalanced periodically is not without merit for "everyone else."
    Aug 30 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At What Price Should You Buy A Dividend Growth Stock? [View article]
    Got it... thanks for the explanation
    Aug 29 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At What Price Should You Buy A Dividend Growth Stock? [View article]
    Hi Dave

    Excellent article.... Can you elaborate on your 10-pt system? You mentioned that you consider anything in the two narrow bands above and below the orange line to be fairly valued, and you assign 3 points (out of a possible 5) for that. Morningstar has a 5-pt system and you incorporate that... Not sure how you'd get to 10?

    Would it be a Morningstar rating of 5 along with 4 bands below the orange line on the F.A.S.T. Graphs is the forward-looking Estimated Earnings and Returns Calculator?

    thanks in advance for your reply and clarification,

    David
    Aug 28 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: High Yield, Fair Price, And Questionable Sustainability [View article]
    I just noticed in O'Shaughnessy's book "How To Retire Rich," he doesn't suggest buying the top 10 utilities based on yield... He suggests buying the top yielding Value Line 1 (conservative) stocks and suggested that many of them would be utilities. Presently, it looks like six of those ten are utilities (if you include telecoms...)


    btw, O'Shaughnessy's book "How To Retire Rich" is available for about $1.00! Click here: http://amzn.to/Z5zYOw
    May 19 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitoring A Large Portfolio [View instapost]
    Great reply. thanks
    Apr 17 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitoring A Large Portfolio [View instapost]
    "....When I see a 3% price move, it takes minutes to read the news and make a decision. This doesn't take a lot of time. If the news is good, decide if you wish to add or lock in profits, if the news is bad, decide if you wish to trim or buy more on the dip. You should already know in advance what your views are on the company. It doesn't take a lot of monitoring to keep up.

    Earnings announcements, dividend announcements and 3% daily price moves are all I monitor. I bet it takes me less time to monitor 50 positions than it takes for some people to monitor 10..."


    Thanks for another great instablog article Chowder. I think that your approach is excellent.

    With regard to your quote above, I think you might still need to elaborate a bit to help some people determine what to do with the good news of bad news.

    For instance, you are suggesting that if there is good news, you might take profits off the table or add to your position. Using KO as an example, you indicated elsewhere that the good news surrounding KO's 5% price move would suggest (for you) that you might add to that position.

    What if KO was already over-weighted in your portfolio... In a 50-stock portfolio, an even distribution would be 2% per holding. Do you try to keep your portfolio as close to an even distribution as possible?

    Conversely, what would constitute negative news for one of your blue-chippers that would result in a sell? I'd presume a buy-out or a negative move regarding the company's dividend distribution (cut or hold or an unacceptably low increase.)

    I also think that your monitoring approach is a little more involved than what you are describing. If a stock dramatically decreases their dividend distribution, their stock price might not move 3% or more. As such, you might miss that news. You'd have to observe that elsewhere. You have mentioned that you check the daily dividend activity on the WSJ (Here: http://on.wsj.com/yGCzL2) I do that, but I also set Google Alerts for dividend updates.

    Again, great article, I just think you ought to elaborate on your actions after you have monitored your portfolio.
    Apr 17 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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