Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
To have the rich pay higher taxes is not enough. There is no enough income in the US to tax to support the current system. I don't know if gold will become ''the'' currency (it is a currency already) but I am not sure why you are saying that it is not good as a unit of account or as a medium of exchange. Looks pretty good this way in face. There is not that much of it but I guess this is the point to a certain extent.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
Japan doesn't need external funding, has a positive current account and their population saves and saves, for now at least. This is why there severe problems are not blowing up.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
Unfortunately, shares of any kind cannot provide the same level of protection. I think gold is likely to substantially outperform shares for some time. Of course, if you pick the next Microsoft, you will do better than gold, but I am talking about the whole market. Emerging markets do not and cannot provide the kind of safe haven that you are talking about.
Should You Buy Silver Now? Probably Not. [View article]
Well, I can talk only about your last two suggestions:
1. Aug 30 (current article) at the very end says that you have no position in silver but plan to short it. I don't know if you shorted it or not but this is the recommendations. Aug 30 silver price is below 41. Current silver price is above 43. Loss is ~ 5%.
2. Aug 25 (gold article) at the very end says that you have no GLD position but are looking to short it. Again, I don't know if you personally shorted GLD or not but this is the trade idea. Aug 25 gold price is ~ 1750. Current gold price is 1893. Loss is ~ 8%.
Again, I don't know what trades you have done but this is the P&L of the trade ideas in your articles at current market prices. Anyway, I wish you good luck.
Is Silver's Price Vs. Gold Warranted? [View article]
Silver is a good investment, that much is clear to me. It is volatile but almost nothing goes up all the time. In fact, there is only one thing that goes straight up with no exception year after year - the Dollar Value of Government Debt. This persistent strength in Government Debt growth is why silver continues to be a good investment.
Looking At This Year's 'Gold Season' [View article]
Some of the comments above answered the bubble argument. I can add a bit to that but to make sure I am clear I think that gold is cheap at current levels (less cheap than before) and not a bubble. The article talks about 1980 and how gold collapsed then but you forget to mention that gold was 35 in 1970. It had gone up about 25 times in price terms in 10 years. The move now is smaller at about 6 times. To compare the two moves, we need to get to 8000 gold price first. Then in 1980 we had gone through a period of very high inflation and all debt had been inflated, which allowed the Fed to hike rates to 20%. These very high real interest rates killed gold. The Fed recently promised to keep rates at 0 for another two years. This shows how 2011 and 1980 are very different. If we are going to compare the two periods, we are now more in early 1970's. The price of gold is closely linked to the M0 base money in the economy - this is history. Due to money printing by the Fed the M0 number has gone up by a similar number as per the Fed's statistics research.stlouisfed.or... Basically, gold has gone up in price as much as the money printing by the Fed would imply. Likely it will go further up as the Fed continues to monetize debt. The massive money printing everywhere in the world, low rates and higher inflation going forward are likely to push gold prices much higher.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
This is another good piece by Mr. Schiff. This guy Gartman is totally clueless. There is an ETF which ''invests'' in his strategies. It is down year to date I think. The funny thing is that once you understand the fundamentals of the world economy, the massive amount of debt that is out there, the distortions caused by money printing and the so called globalization, it is all clear: buy gold. I am not sure if Peter Schiff reads these comments, but if this is the case, can I challenge you to give us real inside into some of the things that you know. I continue to be shocked by the fact that what is mentioned in this article is not obvious to so many people, especially the so called ''investment experts''. Ohhh well, they'll figure it out eventually but where will gold be then?
Should You Buy Silver Now? Probably Not. [View article]
Well, I think after the bearish gold article that you had, silver was the next logical step. You've seen of course what is going on in gold after you suggested shorting it. My prediction is that you will experience the same in silver. You have a loss there already but more is to come. Silver is of course more volatile and who knows what it will do very short term (I personally think it will go up) but long term silver will be much higher, with or without EW's. By the way, the first trader I ever witnessed blow up was an EW expert and guess what, he went long gold at the wrong time. Good luck anyway.
The Imminent Failure Of The Eurozone [View article]
There is some talk now that they will kick Greece out of the EURO. This is probably a good idea as bailing out Greece is simply throwing good money after bad. The Europeans will be better off if they just bail out their own banks instead of bailing them indirectly by bailing out Greece. Even IMF is saying that Greek default is going to happen soon. I think it can happen in a month or two. I don't see anything that anyone can do about this. The main risk is one of contagion but perhaps the ECB and Germany can plan what to do .... who knows. Clearly it is going to be ugly no matter which way Europe goes.
How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 1) [View article]
This is mostly a theoretical discussion. There is no way that 10 yr UST will trade at negative yields. Before this happens, Japanese, Swiss and German 10 yr bonds will have to trade there and this doesn't look likely. There is no chance that we see much deflation as the Fed is not asleep that way (they are fast asleep when inflation goes up of course).
I don't agree with this. It is not that the bond market thinks that inflation will be low but people don't have another place to put their money and accept they will lose some of their principal to inflation. They are afraid that in the stock market they will lose even more. What are the other choices? Housing is going down, commodities are volatile, gold has gone up a lot already and foreign currencies, well you never know what happens to them in this volatile world we live in. To give you another example, take the UK bond market. These are the yields: 1 yr 0.5% 2 yr 0.55% 5 yr 1.28% Inflation is about 5% and trust me nobody thinks inflation is going to be low as the bond curve would suggest. To put it differently, let's take the 2 yr UK bonds at 0.5%. Maybe it is not a great investment if inflation is 5% but what if you are a bank and you can fund it at 0.25%. Then you make your 0.25% of carry and you don't even care about what happens to inflation. This is what is going on in the US market as the Fed has promised to keep rates at 0 for at least two years. The market is totally distorted by QE, promises for low rates, future Twist operations and foreign central bank purchases .... welcome to a Soviet market.
Risk Off: Gold, Silver And Treasury ETFs Outperform [View article]
Well, it used to be that the $ was the biggest safe haven, not just the 10 yr note. Look at the current European crisis and the limited impact (actually none so far) that it has had on EUR/USD. Let's hope that the 10 yr note doesn't follow the $ outside the scope of ''safe haven assets''. Treasuries are very risky and you can trade them but as an investor you are likely to get wiped out long term.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
I don't know if gold will become ''the'' currency (it is a currency already) but I am not sure why you are saying that it is not good as a unit of account or as a medium of exchange. Looks pretty good this way in face. There is not that much of it but I guess this is the point to a certain extent.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
Do We Have A Multi-Year Top In Gold? [View article]
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
Emerging markets do not and cannot provide the kind of safe haven that you are talking about.
Should You Buy Silver Now? Probably Not. [View article]
1. Aug 30 (current article) at the very end says that you have no position in silver but plan to short it. I don't know if you shorted it or not but this is the recommendations.
Aug 30 silver price is below 41.
Current silver price is above 43.
Loss is ~ 5%.
2. Aug 25 (gold article) at the very end says that you have no GLD position but are looking to short it. Again, I don't know if you personally shorted GLD or not but this is the trade idea.
Aug 25 gold price is ~ 1750.
Current gold price is 1893.
Loss is ~ 8%.
Again, I don't know what trades you have done but this is the P&L of the trade ideas in your articles at current market prices. Anyway, I wish you good luck.
Is Silver's Price Vs. Gold Warranted? [View article]
S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio Has Not Yet Hit Historic Low [View article]
Looking At This Year's 'Gold Season' [View article]
The article talks about 1980 and how gold collapsed then but you forget to mention that gold was 35 in 1970. It had gone up about 25 times in price terms in 10 years. The move now is smaller at about 6 times. To compare the two moves, we need to get to 8000 gold price first.
Then in 1980 we had gone through a period of very high inflation and all debt had been inflated, which allowed the Fed to hike rates to 20%. These very high real interest rates killed gold. The Fed recently promised to keep rates at 0 for another two years. This shows how 2011 and 1980 are very different. If we are going to compare the two periods, we are now more in early 1970's.
The price of gold is closely linked to the M0 base money in the economy - this is history. Due to money printing by the Fed the M0 number has gone up by a similar number as per the Fed's statistics research.stlouisfed.or...
Basically, gold has gone up in price as much as the money printing by the Fed would imply. Likely it will go further up as the Fed continues to monetize debt.
The massive money printing everywhere in the world, low rates and higher inflation going forward are likely to push gold prices much higher.
Gold, Franc, Yen: Which Will Be The Last Haven Standing? [View article]
The funny thing is that once you understand the fundamentals of the world economy, the massive amount of debt that is out there, the distortions caused by money printing and the so called globalization, it is all clear: buy gold.
I am not sure if Peter Schiff reads these comments, but if this is the case, can I challenge you to give us real inside into some of the things that you know. I continue to be shocked by the fact that what is mentioned in this article is not obvious to so many people, especially the so called ''investment experts''. Ohhh well, they'll figure it out eventually but where will gold be then?
Collar Your Gold To Protect Profits [View article]
Should You Buy Silver Now? Probably Not. [View article]
The Imminent Failure Of The Eurozone [View article]
Even IMF is saying that Greek default is going to happen soon. I think it can happen in a month or two.
I don't see anything that anyone can do about this. The main risk is one of contagion but perhaps the ECB and Germany can plan what to do .... who knows. Clearly it is going to be ugly no matter which way Europe goes.
How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 1) [View article]
The Deflation Pulse Keeps Beating [View article]
To give you another example, take the UK bond market. These are the yields:
1 yr 0.5%
2 yr 0.55%
5 yr 1.28%
Inflation is about 5% and trust me nobody thinks inflation is going to be low as the bond curve would suggest.
To put it differently, let's take the 2 yr UK bonds at 0.5%. Maybe it is not a great investment if inflation is 5% but what if you are a bank and you can fund it at 0.25%. Then you make your 0.25% of carry and you don't even care about what happens to inflation. This is what is going on in the US market as the Fed has promised to keep rates at 0 for at least two years. The market is totally distorted by QE, promises for low rates, future Twist operations and foreign central bank purchases .... welcome to a Soviet market.
Risk Off: Gold, Silver And Treasury ETFs Outperform [View article]