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winningtrader

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  • Comex Silver Inventories: Is JPMorgan Accumulating Large Amounts Of Silver? [View article]
    We saw a lot of the gold miners report and it is a disaster. These guys are going to have an even worse Q3 as many miners sold their gold in Q2 at prices close to $1400, on average. They are really going to get it in Q3 if the FED manages to suppress the price in Q3 at or below $1300. Over time production will come down significantly and supply from recycled gold is going to collapse. Silver miners will report soon and that will be much uglier in fact. By the way, I can't wait to see the author's analysis of the results of  GG, NEM, ABX and some other gold miners that have already reported.
    Aug 6, 2013. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Solution To Low Gold Prices Is Expensive, Boring Mines [View article]
    Bullion is a much better investment than most miners. The miners haven't been run well focusing on growth instead of profits just to satisfy large egos in the corporate boardrooms. There are some reasons why they will not close quickly some money losing mines:
    - sometimes it is more expensive to close temporarily a mine than run it for a period of time. if it keeps losing money you decrease production over time.
    - executives are self serving (happens often) and don't really care about shareholders. they just want to keep getting paid. this becomes clear if you read the latest earning releases ... most of the time they say things like ''we had an excellent quarter''. keep in mind that such talk comes from companies that lost billions.
    The problem is that the FED has made some successful interventions in the market and pushed gold prices lower. I don't know how long they can keep it going but to me it is clear that they are in the market every day trying to kill sentiment. It is not going to work mostly because the Asians won't fall for that and will keep buying larger and larger amounts. How long can the FED keep in going? It is tough to say but I doubt they can keep it for longer that 6 to 12 months. But if they manage to keep it for longer, some miners can go bankrupt, while the others will have zero earnings (no profits). If you keep some long term savings in gold that you don't plan to use for a long time, you will be fine. Avoid futures and ETF's (the game there is rigged) and stay with physical gold.
    Aug 6, 2013. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Secondary Supply: Saving Grace For Prices [View article]
    Is it true that miners will mine more gold this year? I don't believe so given the following:
    - South Africa is still a big supplier and less gold has been mined so far this year. New strikes are also possible given the tense wage talks. S.A. is simply collapsing.
    - Australia (second biggest producer) is experiencing lower production. Australia is a very high cost producer (on average) which is why mines are doing poorly there and some closing.
    - US is producing less.
    China may increase production but that is irrelevant since all that ends at the Chinese Central Bank (or other government entities).
    I don't know for sure but the WGC said that at current prices people didn't want to recycle their gold. I suspect that the amount of gold coming from recycling will come down a lot more than estimated in the article. I think that the world outside Chine (the biggest producer in the world) may see lower total supply by 7% to 10%. Well, that excludes the supply coming out of Western Central Bank vaults used to suppress the price.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial News Reports Mislead On Gold Hedges [View article]
    ''Financial News Reports Mislead'' - yes indeed but don't tell me this is anything new. They are not naive. They are just told to write that kind of stuff, that's all.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold - Taking Steps In The Right Direction [View article]
    ABX is the biggest gold producer but the company is not in good shape: too much debt, some expensive mines, low gold price. While the cash costs maybe low, the all in costs at ABX are about $1200 per ounce of gold on average. I think that they need to cut investments, exploration but also production. What is the point of producing gold at above $1300 cost per ounce (some of their mines) or even at $1200, to just sell it at $1300 in volatile market. They should cut costs further, lower production substantially at their more expensive mines and focus on profits not volumes. I don't think they've shown sufficient commitment to that so far. They talk the talk but they need to walk the walk as well. We'll see if they do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. No position.
    Aug 5, 2013. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kevyn Orr: Detroit can come back [View news story]
    What does he mean by ''come back''? I guess he means back to the bond markets to borrow more, accumulate another $20 billion in debts and default again.
    Aug 4, 2013. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullard cautious on taper, wants regular press conferences [View news story]
    Bullard changes his mind every month and his predictions on the economy are completely useless. Actually, his predictions are useful in the sense that usually the opposite happens. He is just another clueless bureaucrat.
    Aug 3, 2013. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Silver Good As Gold? [View article]
    I see that this discussion is all one sided as we are all bulls (and I am even more bullish that you trust me). I have some questions and would really appreciate some discussion on these. I am not asking for views but for specific information. Here they are:
    1. Can anybody give an update including references of what is the demand for silver in India. I saw several different accounts and they are not consistent with each other.
    2. Is China buying silver? They produce and don't import but China has all these investment funds, hedge funds and others that allow them to buy things that they think are cheap without too much noise. Can anyone comment on their involvement in the silver market? It is possible that they view the silver market as too small and prefer to focus on gold and other commodities where they can invest some real money.
    3. What is going on in the physical market in the US? I mean coins, silver bullion ... forget ETF's. What is the availability and amount being purchased. We have the information from the US Mint but what about dealers and bullion.
    The CEO of First Majestic recently said that he is a triple digit silver guy - silver above $100. I have no doubt it will get there but timing is not clear. For now J.P. Morgan has managed to manipulated the market and it is hard to predict how long that will last but we'll see.
    Aug 3, 2013. 05:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Difference A Month Makes? Maybe Not Much [View article]
    It is clear that a lot more QE is coming, one way or another. The author of this article would be a lot more useful at the FED if instead of doing high school level math, he focuses on what is really important at the FED - communications, aka propaganda. Given that trillions more of QE is coming and short term rates will never go up, a lot more propaganda will be needed. Maybe the kind of things used in WW2 can work: ''Your country needs you. Keep your cash on deposit at -3% negative real yields. This is how we are going to beat the monster called Debt and pay down government borrowing.''.
    Aug 3, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alamos Gold: Valuation Is Rich For Current Gold Prices [View article]
    This is a great article. It looks like the gold miners are getting decimated. GG, ABX, NEM and others all reported terrible results. They don't say a word about the ongoing gold manipulation and prefer to talk how well they are doing and so on. The fact is that none of them is doing well. At least AGI has positive earnings and no writedowns. By the way on the NEM call on analyst said that their cost are at $1200 and if you add a few expenses (they don't include taxes in the all in cost) you get to $1300. The question then becomes how they are doing so well when they sell their product at $1300 and produce it at the same costs. All management teams talk pretty pictures and then report negative (or roughly zero) earnings + massive writedowns.
    This is nothing. If prices don't recover in the third quarter, their earning are going to be even worse. Also, the silver miners haven't reported yet ... it is going to be a bloodbath. Some of these guys have costs in the $30's per ounce.
    Aug 3, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Gas Developments Internationally And The Liquefied Natural Gas Global Trade (Part 1) [View article]
    The shale gas revolution is mostly a lot of propaganda I think. The problems are two fold. First, virtually all companies in the field are money losing and the price is roughly half of the cost of production.
    Then you have the issue that the wells lose on average 60% of their production in 1 year (virtually all in 2 years). To produce gas like that you need a lot of water, water that is being polluted with chemicals and cannot be used after. Not all places have the water. The danger to the water supply is big and most countries, especially densely populated ones, cannot afford to take the risk. This technology doesn't work in Europe (was tried without success in Poland and now the UK is experimenting). Not sure about Asia but I do believe that the hype is overblown.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Nonfarm Payrolls +162K, unemployment rate 7.4% [View news story]
    75% of all jobs created this year are part time and mostly low lever services: waiters, bartenders and the like. These are not the type of jobs that show economic strength. The whole things is just another piece of bul* from the BLS.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Trust Your Instincts On Gold? [View article]
    It is clear that the FED still has power. The fair price for gold is about 2000 and silver at least 60 in my opinion. What I think is irrelevant as prices are what they are. I think that the only reason why price are not much higher now is suppression and market intervention by the FED and their minions. They don't have a lot of bullets left as they've totally lost it on the long end of the treasury curve. They are also stupid enough to push prices of silver and gold below the cost of production for many miners ( 100% of primary silver miners and 1/3 of primary gold miners) and this guarantees squeeze in the medium term due to shortages on physical supply. So, gold and silver will go much higher. How long can the FED and their friendly central banks fight this losing battle? I give them up to 12 months or less. We'll see.
    Aug 1, 2013. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Vs. Equities: Where Are The Best Plays? [View article]
    PM are massively undervalued due to interventions on the Comex by the FED through their cronies at GS, BAC, JP and a couple of hedge funds + don't forget the BIS. It is true that the FED wants bond and equity prices higher or at least stable while they want PM lower and very volatile. Still, equities, bonds and housing are clearly forming a bubble and bubbles do burst. It is not like the FED stopped the previous few bubbles from bursting even though they tried. One can argue that this time they are even more committed to keeping prices inflated but the only thing they can do is print more money - just another reason to have some gold. Since only 0.5% of assets are invested in gold, gold is definitely an asset that people have neglected and has a lot of upside.
    Jul 30, 2013. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India's Love Of Gold Has Its Downside [View article]
    The finance minister begs Indians not to buy gold while his wife is out shopping for gold. The government want people to stay away from gold and in their local currency so that they can confiscate their savings through money printing, aka QE. India is the master of money printing of course. Fortunately for the locals, they are not that stupid.
    Jul 30, 2013. 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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