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  • 3 Key Trends Will Fuel Twitter's Cash Flow Growth [View article]
    Great Info Graph on Twitter vs. Facebook. In the end, Gravity always wins!
    Dec 5, 2013. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Quiet Period Expiration Provides Traders An Opportunity [View article]
    With over 70% of TWTR users overseas, does anyone know the average income of their users?
    Nov 28, 2013. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Twitter's Fair Value [View article]
    At the current valuation, Twitter stock is selling at a nosebleed 41 times revenues. This compares to only 16x for Facebook stock and 19x for LinkedIn stock (does not include option conversions on the horizon). If you applied the the stock FB multiple to TWTR stock, the price would be 40% lower. User growth has been declining for TWTR. Quarter-over-quarter growth was 10% in Q1 and just 6% in Q3. If this keeps up, it could mean Twitter stock will free fall. Twitter stock could also face pressure from another transition: the one from public sharing of content to private chat. Operators like WeChat, WhatsApp and Line are growing exponentially and perhaps the biggest threat is SnapChat. SnapChat is logging over 400 million snaps per day, while Twitter gets over 500 million tweets per day. All in all, the rapid move to private sharing could be drag on the Twitter stock price over time. I love the company, but I am short the stock.
    Nov 26, 2013. 11:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services: A Small Cap With A Big Moat [View article]
    Significant upside from the coming disposition of assets that will need to be sold as they return from the war zones. Management is projecting $1.60 EPS in 2014 based on yesterday's conference call. Even if you reduce this number by 20% and reduce the PE mult to 17 you get a price of $21.76. Yes, the Gov contract risk is real, but I like the upside/downside risk/reward at these levels. I am a buyer today after the sell off!
    Nov 22, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross (BOND) attempts to ring a bell, calling the 30-year bond bull market over as of April 29, 2013 (while pushing Pimco as the one to help navigate in this new world). The 30-year Treasury yield touched 2.8% at April's end. Including a 9 bp pop today, the yield now stands at 3.08%. TLT -1%, TBT +1.9%[View news story]
    Another great call by a great investor!
    May 10, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pincus's Comments Belie Zynga's Poker Aspirations [View article]
    Extremely well written and supported article, unfortunately it is built on a faulty premise. Using the existing hardcore poker market to project the future poker market is a bit like using the speak easy market to project the spirits market after the abolishment of prohibition. I usually do not comment on posts, but this post is a great example of an intelligent work, unfortunately it is built on the wrong foundation. Your success as an investor is really built on the quality of your questions. Ask the wrong questions and it will not matter how intelligent you support your position. One of the most successful investors of all time, Ken Fisher get this point and built his fortune on this foundation. Read “The Only Three Questions That Count” and you will become a much better investor. Zynga is now the 5th most popular mobile site in the world, mobile is clearly the future, states need the poker revenue, both long-term trends play well for ZNGA and with some $1.6 billion in cash, ZNGA is well positioned and priced for both long term trends. As an individual investor you have a great advantage over most funds, you can focus 3 to 5 years into the future not the next quarter or annual performance numbers. Yes, lots can go wrong with ZNGA, but given their balance sheet, political environment, and technology positioning, the smart money is now long. I am long ZNGA since it broke below $2.50.
    Mar 5, 2013. 10:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment