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rijensen

rijensen
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  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    Monster,
    Always a pleasure.
    My Ford history...
    3/12/2009 @ 2.08
    3/13/2009 @ 2.22
    4/09/2009 @ 4.18
    7/23/2009 @ 6.95
    3/19/2010 @ 13.25
    1/28/2011 @ 16.95
    01/31/2011 @ 15.96
    10/26/2011 @ 11.59
    06/13/2012 @ 10.36
    09/12/2014 @ 16.63
    09/30/2014 @ 14.67
    and lastly
    01/14/2015 @ 14.89

    I am now maxed out and can't buy more without going over 20% of my portfolio % limit (insert trade like a robot, limit here).

    When I look at a stock I look for 12-18 months minimum hold. (I love making the extra up on LTCG tax). I also look for at least 40 % appreciation within 12-18 months. I use Bollinger bands @ 50,200 and 1000 (with 3 SD's). I then do a BIC analysis (Bal, Inc, Cash) and run a quick regression analysis on the trends I feel are most important (insert closely guarded secret recipe here) (-1,0,+1) for a confidence interval on the position. I hope to be @ about 80% or better.

    I also do a global macro outlook, sector comparison and managerial Fund. Analysis and look for -1, 0 or +1 indicators. I throw them all into a bowl, beat for 30 seconds and bake @ 350.

    What comes out is a S. deviation projection (with Coefficient of Variation) that tells me if I'm on to something, or to cut bait.

    Depending on how much I throwing at it I set stop loss at anywhere from 3-5%, sometimes as much as 10. After a set period (depends on the near performance) I pull the stop loss and let it ride.

    Unless I have a long shot in play (insert DRYS here). That is when I use all my poker skills.

    PS, don't tell anyone how I do it....
    May 22, 2015. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford reduces output slightly in China [View news story]
    I knew I felt my ears burning.
    May 22, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    T,
    I believe you are discussing equity valuations and statistical probability with a couple of "investment hippies".

    The fact that we feel (assuming your positive outlook) that F has been on a secular infrastructure building cycle that will shortly begin to change both the EPS valuations and velocities/momentum. Doesn't appear to be justifiable since Monster "feels" that "real danger", "especially in the next 1-3 years".
    That is precisely when I feel the largest EPS and dividend structural changes will accelerate.

    So I would suggest that we are discussing diametrically opposing views, not based on empiricals, but feelings. (Which everyone has an absolute right to do).
    May 22, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]
    I think it is hasty to assign a negative connotation to the share swap.

    When I invest I spend an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out if I am using the/correct logic. I then try to tear down all my assumptions to test my hypothesis. With Drys this is largely a fools errand. GE is very "active" in managing DRYS and ORIG. Any attempts to define his actions and assign "a plan" are also likely to prove less than productive.

    There are several quick points that I would offer to complicate your analysis.

    1. Interest on $40M @ (LIBOR + 10% to 12%) DRYS now keeps that.
    2. The loans was only for 18 months. (Last 6 months Int went to L+12%).
    3. Returned shares lift the value of ORIG by about 3%.
    4. Returned shares decrease the dividend paid out by ORIG, providing cash.
    5. Helps/ensures ORIG pays a dividend. (Important to DRYS).
    6. GE still controls ORIG. (And has all the options available, as before).
    7. ORIG has option to exchange loan balance for ORIG shares at $13.50 per share, when DryShips pays off the $200 million AMRO loan. If that happens that lowers the 10% interest down to 6.6% (from inception). The timing of all of this is under GE's control.

    Point 5 is the only point open to discussion. All the others are fact, not supposition. That is (IMO) the only way to approach analysis when it comes to a speculative play like DRYS and especially considering GE.

    I believe that makes the deal a bit more complex and not so straight forward when it comes to a quick analysis.
    May 22, 2015. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    (To a Split) The geese will scatter and PPS maybe drop it a bit, but notice the volumes. We are no where near 10-15M shares that DRYS trades when price is serious. Lite volume = poor people with no money who are scared or picking bones.

    So watch the volume and hold on because we are already seeing GE collecting green shoots.
    May 21, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    orlvent,
    Well done! When they called me I was busy on the phone. (negotiating for a new car for my college bound son). I just said "all shares, all accounts with the board", so I didn't even find out. Thank you for letting me know.

    Now, that doesn't change ANYTHING and it doesn't mean it will happen, but it sure is nice to know. Was it OKAPI Partners that called you about the proxy? Thx.
    May 21, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    orlvent,
    you poetic devil you.
    May 21, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    That's why they call them PIGS.

    Never bet against a Greek, when shipping is on the line.
    May 21, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    I have been waiting for DRYS to move since Jan, 28, 2011 @ 4.99. Luckily for me I fell into a bull trap and had to tough it out after doubling down several times.
    May 21, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree Strengthens Its $100 Million Power And RF Business By Adding New Products To Its Portfolio [View article]
    cheapest.... AND therein is the entire problem for CREE.
    May 21, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    Drys is paying down debt they owed to ORIG.

    DRYS (George) agreed with ORIG (George), to pay $40 million of debt borrowed by DRYS (George) from ORIG (George) as part of the $120 million loan earlier, for 4,444,444 shares of Ocean Rig owned by DRYS (George).

    So he, DRYS (George) gave up 4,444,444 shares of ORIG, to pay down $40M worth of the $120M he DRYS (George) borrowed from ORIG (George).

    How can it possibly be any simpler?
    May 21, 2015. 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    Risk,
    The number one rules of disciplined investors....trade like a robot.
    Robots rule!
    May 21, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    I forgot.... Go George!!!!!
    May 21, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cree up 3.6% following CLSA upgrade [View news story]
    Remember the "old days" when analysts would issue updates before it became obvious?
    May 21, 2015. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips swings share deal with Ocean Rig [View news story]
    And so begins the long climb out of a time of infamy, into the light and fresh air of profits and smooth sailing
    May 21, 2015. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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