adt

A-Power Energy Misses Analyst Estimates: A Buying Opportunity?

APOWER Q3 Earnings And Outlook

Apower reported Q3 earnings of $0.28 on a Non-GAAP basis and $0.02 loss on a GAAP basis, incurring warrant and derivative losses along the way, and achieving expanded gross margin of 13%. Management re-iterated guidance of around $320M revenue for 2009. On a slightly increased number of weighted average shares, this implies full year eps of around $0.90 – Non-GAAP and $0.60 GAAP, and Q4 eps of $0.55 Non GAAP.

The work book is such that eps will rise dramatically at some stage in the next two years, and probably approximate $2.00 per share, per annum during 2010 - 2011. As some commentators have pointed out the contracts in-train highlight huge revenue growth despite a number of contracts being won through partnerships and alliances – JV’s. Another thing to watch for with Apower, as a lead to the revenue growth is the cash deposits from customers, evidenced in the balance sheet but I imagine not taken to profit. These have been expanding also through 2009. Further, the GAAP losses will not always be there.

Some of the issues that will dictate the extent of Apower earnings multiple and share price will be as follows:

The proportion of earnings from wind turbine manufacture as opposed to distributed energy generation – renewable energy powered grids (micro) – which Apower now has contracts for in numerous forms of renewable energies. PE’s for grid construction as opposed to wind turbine manufacture appear quite disparate and earnings split, along with the significant growth rate the group is achieving (PEG less than 1), will dictate PE;

What of the Evatech acquisition in Japan? How will this feed into group strategy? and

What of mooted takeover? The group has been linked, albeit perhaps very casually to NRG Energy, which this year acquired a Texas retail distribution business, where Apower will in part be located, is looking for a wind project developer (offshore?), and last I saw is sitting on approximately 24,000mw of electricity production, 550mw under construction, and $5B cash.

APWR hits 52 Week High==Get Used to it all 2010

APWR also has some of its contracts through JV's and alliances. That is the margin on the full contact value will diminish depending how it reports revenue? Or the margin will hold but against its share of the contracts - revenue.

APWR hits 52 Week High==Get Used to it all 2010

Wind4me - Like your work and love the compay – APWR.

I think this comment was posted to your website as well.

APWR is effectively, at least as it stands now, a Construction Company. Thats at least how the market sees it. Although it is a Cotruction company in one of the highest growth sectors in the economy – global economy.

To that end anyway, it needs to keep wnning new contracts to repalce old ones as they are completed, ie. it needs to prove recurring income. This would appear to be the case – that it will – given the structure it has in place – alliances and partners, and proven winning of larger contracts.

But will the market apply an expanded PE to the higher level earnings – when they materialise – probably not, at least not for some time – probably requiring proof of recurring levels of income – revenue.

If earnings appear one-off, a net asset value would be applied to the income rather than a PE.

My belief is as yours, The Group is going to be big as is wind, and APWR is all Renewable Energies anyway, and now more than China or Asia. And its presently only $600M market cap.

The market was spooked by failure to meet earnings expectations on a quarterly basis and last years earnings warning. Guidance for this year has remained in place meaning Q4, if not Q3 will be large. Logically this would be the case given the number of new contracts as you point out. And then, also as you point out 2010 and 2011 will be bigger. What then are estimates for 2012 and 2013?

Like your work and Love the Stock. Love the stock so much I bought some within a day of first seeing it - at $5.00. It promptly fell to $3.00.

Cree: Shining on the LED Lighting Market

I find this a dilema as well. Smart Grid Enablers and Lighting are not Utilities and they are not Energies as such. They are however a Clean-tech or Clean Resource. To that end I tend to lump them in with Renewables as a Group called Clean Resources and Renewable Energies or Clean-tech Resources and Renewable Energies, inclusive of the Constructors of the plants and grids that facilitatte use of the resource (light and water) and energies.

As an adjunct, the Clean Resource sub-group may even include Rare Earth Processors as Rare Earths are used in many Clean applications such as the Lighting and Hybrid and Electric vehicles.

Happy Grouping!

Banks have found plenty of creative ways to lose billions over the past few years. So it may not be surprising, after past misadventures in Argentina and Russia, that Western banks poured more than $10B in loans into a little-known bank in Kazakhstan - most of which have gone bust, and may have been diverted by the bank's chairman.

Whether it was the fault of Azamat or Borat, sounds like they did'nt learn much about banking on their trip to the US.

Borat-Banking is obviously not a good thing. Next time I think Borats sister should be responsible for the banking and maybe Borats brother can be helped under the US Health Reforms. The assistance to Kazakhstan being limited to health until Borats sister gets official banking control.

Either that or any commerce between the US and Kazakhstan be limited to Pamela Anderson type assets.

(corrected) Island Reversal

...............and perhaps some (attracive) Head and Shoulders' even.............

Senator Schumer Misses the Full Picture on A-Power's Joint Texas Wind Farm

China Goes To Texas: The Great Wind Farm Dispute

It would appear the A-Power storey has moved from one of stock volatility and perennial technical critique (Zacks), to stock and political volatility. Granted reported earnings have not been very consistent at least on a quarterly basis, and as reported, financials can be a little confusing, but the Group has a new CFO now and is gaining some considerable structure and mass.
Management have this year put in place a structure, following alliances and acquisition – bringing together interests from China, Japan and the US, to support significant growth and some diversification through renewable energies and potentially related product.
A recent blog posted by Douglas Macintyre on 24/7 Wall Street, outlined below, highlighted criticism by New York Senator Charles Schumer of A-Powers Texas project with US entities US-Reg and Cielo. Schumer appears concerned that manufacture of Wind Turbines will occur in China through A-Power’s alliance and that Chinese jobs will be created, albeit only temporarily if further contracts are not won.
His criticism and concern is that the $1.5B project may attract US economic recovery aid. This criticism appears somewhat off-beam, in particular for the following reasons:
1. Chinese investment – financial institution and corporate – will create US jobs in the wind farm construction phase – possibly the biggest wind farm to date in the US; and
2. US multinationals manufacture by choice in China, creating Chinese jobs and repatriating profits or dividends from China. Why is this so?
Why wouldn’t Schumer focus on helping the emergence of new industries in the US rather than looking to jeopardise a Chinese – US project that will actually create US jobs and help further develop two US entities and potentially new US industry? Especially at a time when Obama, Geithner and Chinese officials have been building US / Anglo – Sino relations, for very good reasons.
Does he want to create a Trade War?
Does he want US multinationals banned from China or banned from selling in or to China? For example bans on Microsoft product in China. Or for that matter HP, Dell, Sun Micro, Adobe, Apple or Research in Motion?
Does he want wholesale sale of US treasuries by China?
Does he want a response by China, which has growing per capita income, or the rest of the world, in the form of – Don’t Buy US Goods?
Does he want a permanent ban on Chinese export of Rare Earths or the products they are used to manufacture, including wind turbines?
Does he want a US and possibly Global Depression?
Douglas Macintyre is correct. Schumer is grandstanding and he is naive. I will add to that, he is a moron, stupid and short sighted. He might be best to keep his mouth shut for fear of a Chinese Dragon jumping into it.
Andrew D Turner (adt)

China Goes To Texas: The Great Wind Farm Dispute
Posted: November 6, 2009 at 6:35 am
Print Email Subscribe Free Newsletter Follow us on Twitter 24/7 Wall St Real Time 500
Chinese interests and private capital will build a huge wind farm in West Texas. China-based wind turbine firm A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ:APWR) will lead the project. It will cost as much as $1.5 billion and could supply energy to nearly 180,000.
Senator Charles Schumer of New York State does not like the Texas project, although he might like it more if the turbines were destined for up-state New York. Schumer believes that $450 million in federal stimulus funds could go into the project from the government’s stimulus package. That would help to create as many as 3,000 jobs at turbine plants in China according Reuters.
Schumer wants to have the best and worst of the stimulus programs. He wants job creation and improved alternative energy prospects for America so it can break its addiction to fossil fuels. That may mean a sacrifice which is that China, the growing threat to US global economic dominance, will get a few jobs.
Schumer is naive, or is grand standing. Supplies for alternative energy has to come from somewhere and not all of its will not come from US manufacturers. That is a simple reality which cannot be changed.

Douglas A. McIntyre

China: Wind Power for 1.3B People

It would appear the A-Power storey has moved from one of stock volatility and perennial technical critique (Zacks), to stock and political volatility. Granted reported earnings have not been very consistent at least on a quarterly basis, and as reported, financials can be a little confusing, but the Group has a new CFO now and is gaining some considerable structure and mass.
Management have this year put in place a structure, following alliances and acquisition – bringing together interests from China, Japan and the US, to support significant growth and some diversification through renewable energies and potentially related product.
A recent blog posted by Douglas Macintyre on 24/7 Wall Street, outlined below, highlighted criticism by New York Senator Charles Schumer of A-Powers Texas project with US entities US-Reg and Cielo. Schumer appears concerned that manufacture of Wind Turbines will occur in China through A-Power’s alliance and that Chinese jobs will be created, albeit only temporarily if further contracts are not won.
His criticism and concern is that the $1.5B project may attract US economic recovery aid. This criticism appears somewhat off-beam, in particular for the following reasons:
1. Chinese investment – financial institution and corporate – will create US jobs in the wind farm construction phase – possibly the biggest wind farm to date in the US; and
2. US multinationals manufacture by choice in China, creating Chinese jobs and repatriating profits or dividends from China. Why is this so?
Why wouldn’t Schumer focus on helping the emergence of new industries in the US rather than looking to jeopardise a Chinese – US project that will actually create US jobs and help further develop two US entities and potentially new US industry? Especially at a time when Obama, Geithner and Chinese officials have been building US / Anglo – Sino relations, for very good reasons.
Does he want to create a Trade War?
Does he want US multinationals banned from China or banned from selling in or to China? For example bans on Microsoft product in China. Or for that matter HP, Dell, Sun Micro, Adobe, Apple or Research in Motion?
Does he want wholesale sale of US treasuries by China?
Does he want a response by China, which has growing per capita income, or the rest of the world, in the form of – Don’t Buy US Goods?
Does he want a permanent ban on Chinese export of Rare Earths or the products they are used to manufacture, including wind turbines?
Does he want a US and possibly Global Depression?
Douglas Macintyre is correct. Schumer is grandstanding and he is naive. I will add to that, he is a moron, stupid and short sighted. He might be best to keep his mouth shut for fear of a Chinese Dragon jumping into it.
Andrew D Turner (adt)

China Goes To Texas: The Great Wind Farm Dispute
Posted: November 6, 2009 at 6:35 am
Print Email Subscribe Free Newsletter Follow us on Twitter 24/7 Wall St Real Time 500
Chinese interests and private capital will build a huge wind farm in West Texas. China-based wind turbine firm A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ:APWR) will lead the project. It will cost as much as $1.5 billion and could supply energy to nearly 180,000.
Senator Charles Schumer of New York State does not like the Texas project, although he might like it more if the turbines were destined for up-state New York. Schumer believes that $450 million in federal stimulus funds could go into the project from the government’s stimulus package. That would help to create as many as 3,000 jobs at turbine plants in China according Reuters.
Schumer wants to have the best and worst of the stimulus programs. He wants job creation and improved alternative energy prospects for America so it can break its addiction to fossil fuels. That may mean a sacrifice which is that China, the growing threat to US global economic dominance, will get a few jobs.
Schumer is naive, or is grand standing. Supplies for alternative energy has to come from somewhere and not all of its will not come from US manufacturers. That is a simple reality which cannot be changed.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Book Review: Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis

Alan, Thanks for your comments on the book. I have been looking to buy it.

What other tech analysis books would you suggest, for an intermediate tech analysis user, ie as you suggested, a few favorite indicators, and some quant and tech literacy. I am possibly also looking for a combination of tech theory and trading strategies and even investment and trading psychology.

I had in mind DeMark indicators and was looking at the heretics of Finance.

adt - Andrew Turner

A-Power Energy Generation Systems: Headwind or Tailwind?

Add to that Australian comment the following, by all accounts, for reference and comparison:

BWEN, AMSC.

And Mr utu, if your hash was a website marketing ploy, I will treat it as the opposite - aversion.

A-Power Energy Generation Systems: Headwind or Tailwind?

Name of Australian Fuel Cell company - Ceramic Fuel Cells - cfu.ax.

A-Power Energy Generation Systems: Headwind or Tailwind?

If you dont like A-Power with $30m+ profit ($1eps in round, bad year terms) and growing, Cash of $2 per share and Book Value approaching an adjusted $8 (my estimate) and market cap around $320m, can I ask your assessment of the following:

A Fuel Cell stock heading into Europe, making losses, which it will for another year or two, cash per share of $AUD 0.15 at most, capital expenditure requirements, and market cap of $AUD340m ($270m).

A-Power: The Stock That Got Away

Dear TraderMark,

You caught it at the wrong time. It is now behaving quite rationally, apart from some weird occasional technical activity, and has some catching up to do. Historic and current year PE's can be quite meaningless. And, it is not just fast money or at least shouldn't be that is attracted to it now. And that will be proven as market cap grows and institutional investment capacity increases. That is, as it hits permissable institutional investment radars. Forced hedge fund selling through fund redemptions, possibly got the better of you through 2008 and affected the stock through part of this year as well. I got shaken up to. I first bought it at $5 and bought it again at $3.5 (on the way back up), and again at $7 and again at $9.8 ...and again........The strategy, region, industry and growth profile make it one of the most attractive growth stocks, to me, in the world. If you would care to discuss that further, I am adt. And for what it is worth, I have stuck with stocks for 3 - 4 years before I have made money on them. They become almost like family, you know them that well - Balance Sheet, P&L, Cashflow, Technicals, operating region, you name it. But if you care to, you are then able to trade them better - you know their personality.

A-Power Energy Generation: Chinese Company with Huge Growth Begins to Move

This analysis is fine if you travel looking in the rear vision mirror. Listen to the December Quarter 2008 Earnings webcast and listen right to the end. Then take note of the upcoming March Qaurter earnings release. Happy investing.

Renewable Energy Cost Curves: 1980-2020

Thankyou for providing the chart.The relativities and trends look right. Dont know about Biomass being that high. Absolute prices dont look to unreasonable (especially wind and solar) in the context of the chart, ie. not intending deadly accuracy - rather the trend and relativity.