Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Sure enough stocks refused to sell off now back over the 200dma 1278 in the S&P500 and prices could advance until encountering resistance at 1304.25 likely led by the Nasdaq 100 which had already held its 200day in the prior session with resistance seen at 2503 and 2515 so for now the immediately direction is higher although both advancing on decreasing volume which usually isn't bullish long term. More profit-taking in 10yr Treasuries as prices continued toward 133-15 support and how buyers react to that level support or not remains to be seen. The Dollar didn't stay under 82.76 for very long before bouncing higher forming a bull flag which could mean prices ultimately trade north of 84.00. Gold continues to remain stalled under 1626.20 without new buying further gains could be difficult to come by with support at 1600 and 1580 while Silver plays catch up holding 28.000 and drifting higher over 28.310 with 29.000 next upside objective. Indecision day in Crude drifting higher on apparent short-covering with 88.00 remaining the upside challenge while Natural gas tried to advance but without new buyers gains will be hard to come buy although prices did close over 2.426 which is encouraging with 2.516 next upside target. Indecision day in Corn as prices were unable to close over 569 but buyers supported at 560 resulting in a nearly flat session while Wheat sold off giving back yesterday's gains as sellers push prices within sight of the June lows as Soybeans tried to advance but ran into sellers waiting at 1360 with prices still looking they are headed for 1300 and Oats chops toward resistance at 291 but lacking conviction. Coffee reversed lower giving back yesterday's small gains heading toward 155.00 again with both buying and selling conviction lacking here while lack of follow through selling had Sugar closing with small gains although 19.50 resistance looms large. Cocoa was sweet to longs leaping over 2,100 heading towards next target of 2,200, pullbacks could be purchased if they hold 2,100 and Orange Juice took a small step forward advancing shy of 3% to 114.80 with 110.00 supporting could easily see prices challenge 133.28 however Cotton took a step backwards reversing lower as sellers get motivated not waiting for prices to challenge 71.00 before selling as contract lows remain within reach.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

Just when you thought it was safe to consider selling strategies stock prices bounced in the other direction with the S&P500 closing at its 200dma at 1276 almost flat saved by the Nasdaq 100's inability to close under its 200dma at 2434.28 so unless prices can close under those averages can expect a bounce higher with resistance seen at 1307 and 2500 respectively. Inside day for 10yr Treasury looking like a trade to 133-09 is possible but need to see what happens if that level supports or if sellers can take prices lower. The Dollar tested support at 82.59 but given the recent advance don't expect this support to hold and we can easily see 81.500 trade perhaps even lower and this will give a boost to the crosses specially the Euro which is challenging 1.2498, Aussie testing 0.9735 and the Swiss France pushing against 1.0408. Buyers drove Crude higher on bargain buying as well as some short covering but prices need to close over 88.40 to really mark a change in trend but for now appears sellers have lost control and can expect a bounce from these oversold levels whereas Natural gas advanced as buyers returned sending prices up to 2.430 resistance while a close over could bring 2.555. Slight profit-taking in Gold after prior surge on new buying as this move is buyable if prices fall to 1600 and or to 1580 whereas Silver reversed direction but managed to hold 28.00 whereas buyers experienced change of heart in Copper sending prices into the positive although still trending lower with 3.4000 seen as near-term resistance. Inside day in Corn and Wheat as the market reconsiders resent selling with 572 and 640 respective upside resistance whereas Soybeans fell as prices were unable to close over 1350 with support seen at 1330 and sellers sold into 404 resistance in Meal sending prices back under 400 with 390 seen as support. Sellers lost control in Coffee as buyers woke up to support at the lows sending prices to the best levels of the day but far from 165.00 buyers first upside hurdle while Sugar traded under 19.00 as sellers remain in control looking for 18.00. Cocoa formed a borderline outside day reversing direction to end with gains as new lows were rejected putting prices within reach of 2,104 near term resistance whereas Orange Juice still remains between 109.25 and 112.00 obviously something is going to happen and am expecting a breakout to higher prices whereas new lows were rejected in Cotton as sellers lose control to buyers with a short-covering bounce not out of the question with 72.00 seen as first upside target.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended

Stocks fell out of bed as sellers become more motivated sending the S&P500 down to its 200day average at 1275.25 whereas the Nasdaq 100 still remains over its 200dma at 2430.00 so far nothing more then a classic much overdue correction.10yr Treasuries zoomed to new contract highs again too high to buy but they just refuse to sell off so ignore for now with bonds putting in a similar performance as chicken money continues to chases treasuries higher. Outside day in the Dollar suggesting a reversal is about to happen as not quite able to make it to 84.00 with today's high of 83.67 is the best it could do with 82.50 seen as immediately support, or 81.50 if the former level doesn't hold with the Euro and the Swiss Franc being the biggest beneficiaries. Crude plumbed new lows again now under 84.40 as buyers give up and sellers chase prices lower with next support likely being 80.00 as prices are oversold over 25% whereas Natural gas continues to decline from profit-taking waiting to see if prices will hold 2.276 to see if this fall is a buy or look for other opportunities. Gold exploded with solid gains clearing 1572 and 1600 like they weren't there, now that's impressive only to pause at 1628 retaking about 75% of the May losses while Silver pushed over 28.000 to be stopped at 28.52 with more resistance seen at 29.000 but Copper heads for 3.200. Outside day in Corn as sellers were waiting at 658 to send prices back to new contract lows with lower prices very possible not to be outdone by Wheat falling almost five percent as sellers sold when prices fell under 640 support whereas Soybeans headed in the other direction unable to advance beyond 1350 while Meal ranged between 405 and 388 as buyers support and sellers force the issue. Coffee grinds lower yet again to new contract lows with near term resistance at 166.50, Sugar fell under 19.50 with possible support seen at 18.00 as buyers give up after sellers were quick to sell into any strength seen over the previous sessions with 19.60 near term resistance whereas Cocoa initially traded under 2,050 but new lows were rejected suggesting a possible bounce is in store with resistance at 2,120. Orange Juice ranged between 109.10 and 112.75 for the second session poised for a breakout to the upside to 135.20 whereas Cotton heads in the other direction to new contract lows again approaching longer term support under 68.00 with many wondering just how low is low?

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended