Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Outside week in the S&P500 had prices close back under 1430 after another failed rally attempt motivates sellers putting 1389 in play catching up to the profit-taking in the Nasdaq 100 leading the losses now under 2693 with 2573 the next likely downside objective although 10yr Treasuries didn't really benefit from much safe haven buying despite holding 132-00 unable to challenge 132-28 as 129-12 remains within reach. The Dollar found its footing as buyers supported at 79.00 although still has its upside work cut out for it with resistance around 80.00 to contend with before any significant upside move but what doesn't sell off eventually rallies. More melting in metals as Gold continues lower with next downside of 1665 as buyers continue to take profits after the third failure to break 1800 as near term resistance is seen at 1743.10 with Silver also dropping with 31.105 in play and Copper reverses direction taking out more support levels putting 3.5330 in play as buyers sell to protect profits. Inside week for Crude as prices can't seem to make up their mind what to do here slipping back under 91.25 keeping 85.15 within sight if not lower as 94.00 continues to act as longer-term resistance which is yet to be challenged but Natural gas advances as sellers turn dip buyers continue to chase prices higher now over 3.529 keeping 3.817 in sight deferring the eventual correction which could happen sooner as opposed to later but with sellers few and far between such pullbacks will be a chance to buy. Hogs advanced not looking back as buyers continue to chase prices higher to end shy of 79.725 now within reach of 82.000 if 80.000 doesn't contain further advances and Cattle remained over 125.00 to challenge 127.550 largely marking time trading within a five cent range. Corn continues to trade between 732 and 773 although this week's high is seven cents less then prior week's a possible sign of buyers fatigue but thus far not significantly selling off either while Wheat held 852 and rallied but unable to advance beyond 888 as prices remain confined within a 50 cent range but Soybeans try to rally after falling under 1575 but missed the mark by 20 cents still looking lower namely to 1383 despite Oats remaining the only one of the complex still trying to rally staying over 386 after reclaiming that level last week within sight of new highs bit unable to close over 400 so have to wait and see if prices can advance. Coffee wakes up and closed back over 160.00 although still within sight of new lows as prices continue to base which could be an opportunity to buy longer prices remain over 160.00 as resistance of 167.75 looms with Sugar holding the line at 20.00 resisting a sell off to 18.40 despite being turned away from 20.42 so the waiting continues. Cocoa didn't wait advancing over 2 percent ending shy of 2511 resistance after holding 2,338 last week keeping 2,547 within reach as prices recover from profit-taking and longer term could see a trade to 2,675. Orange Juice tried to rally but turned away from 116.90 sending prices back to the lows to ultimately try gain as buyers find value at 110.00 increases the chances of an upside surprise longer prices remain over 107 and out of nowhere Cotton explodes to the upside advancing over 7 percent blowing through two resistance levels almost reaching 82.02 can expect some back and fill action see if prices test 74.26 before making another attempt to move higher.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Corn popped this week but falling short of 778 while 719 continues to support so unless something happens (i.e., a break to the upside or downside) that's the expected range for now whereas Wheat continues to struggle unable to retake 900 stalled under 890 resistance ending close to 841 support although can't rule out a trade to 800 longer-term. Not helping matters Soybeans drop under 1561 and this time buyers didn't support putting next downside target of 1377 in play however Oats headed in the other direction advancing over 385 within reach of 400 after 361 supported in a classic divergence which might suggest the other grains could reverse higher so we have to wait and see. Coffee fell under 167.00 support looking to challenge the Sept. lows of 156.55 but this time with less shorts so have to see if the remaining sellers can grind prices lower to 148.95 and an outside week in Sugar soured for longs as prices reverse direction sitting on 20.00 within reach of 18.40 with near term resistance seen at 20.50. Cocoa tried to rally but reversed direction as buyers lost interest closing under 2,372 but bouncing off 2,325 support as the correction continues and unless buyers return, next downside objective could be the 61.8% retracement at 2301, outside week in Orange Juice as resistance at 117.05 and 118.95 capped gains although prices held at 110.00 keeping upside possibilities alive as long as that level continues to hold and Cotton moved at two speeds slow and stop remaining under 72.42 but holding the line at 71.00 going nowhere fast. Hogs were on the move advancing over 77.975 looking for 80.00 as buyers chase prices higher with support seen at 76.125 but Cattle remains fenced in by 127.350 roaming in the other direction to 124.700 which should support prices if not could see a trade to 122.400. Two sided trade in Crude again as prices remain confined in a 5.50 range but able to close over resistance at 90.87 and 91.30 and with a higher hi and low unlike last week which makes me think the market is looking for 94.74 with more resistance beyond that before we see a possible reversal but Natural gas exploded higher blowing through 3.542 as longs chase shorts putting 3.828 in play, so far any decline has been met by buyers not wanting to miss the next leg higher raising the possibility of a sudden correction when it should happen. Gold dulled a little this week under profit-taking after being turned away from 1800 slowly heading toward support at 1731.40 although prices could see a challenge of 1662.90 should sellers get motivated but Silver has significant support around 33.000 to contain any downside pressure although a trade to 31.145 would be a better pullback point and Copper continues to consolidate testing 3.6975 after falling under 3.7330 likely looking for 3.6535. The S&P500 finally made up its mind and picked a direction, lower, selling off and this time closed under 1429.25 first level support and unless prices can recover downside objective is 1381.75 which seems likely since Nasdaq 100 already fell through its first level support of 2792.00 and is very close to its 2nd downside objective at 2681.95 with a failure likely taking prices to 2566.80. 10yr Treasuries held 132-25 supported by weak equities although upside has been capped by 134-00 in the past so not sure if this time will be any different as buying conviction lacks and the Dollar just can't find its footing falling back under 80.00 rejected from 80.50 again but could try to rally again if it can stay over 79.255.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results

The Trend is your friend in this business and for the S&P500 that direction appears higher as the index bounced off 1426.25 support earlier in the week although falling shy of new highs but not by much while Nasdaq 100 lagged under profit-taking but able to remain over 2792.10 although a close under that level puts 2671.95 in play about five percent lower. 10yr Treasuries pulled back to support at 132-22 as 134-00 continues to contains upside with more declines possible especially if Bonds continue to sell off likely heading for 144-06 after turned away from 149-19. The Dollar's upside attempt to challenge 80.00 failed falling back to 79.20 within sight of 78.85 threatening a break lower unless buyers return. Gold continues to remain stalled under 1800 advancing within $2 of that level before pulling back ending the week slightly lower defying a much needed correction to 1716.50 with Silver trading over 35.000 before the sellers returned checking gains leaving the white metal vulnerable to a pullback to 33.000 and Copper unable to make much upside to challenge 3.8730 but bounced off 3.7370 as buyers supported to keep future upside possibilities alive. Crude slipped back under 91.26 again forming an outside week suggesting further downside namely a challenge of 85.00 with resistance thus far unchallenged at 95.00 and profit-taking burns up some gains in Natural gas falling short of 3.555 although support remains at a not yet challenged 3.208. Hogs advanced while able to close over 76.075 was turned away from 77.850 resistance longer term could try for 80.00 if prices can hold current levels as solid support is found at 73.300 and Cattle recovered finding support at 124.600 but ran into sellers at 127.225 checking gains. Subdued trading in Corn this week consolidating between 784 and 708 although with prices ending on the low looks like 708 might be in play whereas inside week in Wheat but also looking lower within reach of 834 support as 895 continues to cap advances but weakness in Soybeans took prices under 1550 before recovering to end over that level by less then 2 cents looking more likely prices will challenge 1400 and perhaps 1358. Oats continues to trend lower testing support at 357 as resistance remains a distant 384. Coffee grinds lower to 168.80 after prices were unable to advance beyond 183.65 for the third week waking up sellers with 163.25 next downside objective if buyers fail to support while Sugar builds on gains exceeding 20.63 and 21.29 putting 22.30 in play although longer term could trade to 23.38 but Cocoa heads in the other direction trading close to support at 2,362 so have to see if that area can holds as prices correct. Orange Juice attempts a rally after remaining over 110.00 but stopped by 116.75 to perhaps try again and Cotton continues to slowly grinding lower now under 72.39 while managing to hold 71.00 for now.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results