Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Corn popped as buyers didn't wait for a challenge of 697 before sending prices higher but still have resistance at 790 to deal with while Wheat actually closed over its resistance at 900 as buyers return expecting higher prices with support still unchallenged at 827. Soybeans looked weak bouncing the least as buyers are still not convinced to chase prices higher with resistance seen at 1678 support at 1536 and Oats continue lower heading toward 356 as buyers remain indifferent with respect to the other grains movement with resistance still at 385. Coffee managed to stay over 169.75 for the 2nd week but trending lower as buyers remain unmotivated with resistance seen at 183.35 in largely range bound trading with Sugar unable to make much upside progress stalling at 20.73 but holding over 20.00 for now anyway but longer term could see a challenge of 18.34 unless buyers can take the initiative. Cocoa slips a little falling under 2,519 after a failure of 2,600 suggesting a trade to 2,357 is likely as sellers get motivated as well as taking profits with Orange Juice getting squeezed under 117.85 support putting 111.00 in play after being soundly rejected from 133.60 with Cotton falling under 72.58 breaching 70.81 now likely looking for 66.15 as buyers remain nowhere to be found. Hogs reversed direction after approaching 76.225 but holding over 73.025 for now so have to see if buyers will continue to support whereas sellers sent Cattle lower although prices held over 124.575 but a trade under 124.300 could invite more selling. Crude traded below 91.22 printing 88.95 before bouncing higher while encouraging do not think we have seen the low with 84.60 still possible as price action looks more like short-covering with resistance at 95.00 however Natural Gas powers higher in a textbook bounce off 3.026 taking out 3.213 with little effort as buyers return putting 3.576 in play although the higher prices go the greater the chance of profit-taking. Gold remains stalled under 1,800 unable to move higher but buyers still remain supportive at lower levels preventing a much needed pullback to 1,697.50 with a similar performance in Silver halted at 35.000 but supported at 33.200 with more under that level limiting downside but Copper pulls back a little able to remain over 3.7425 after buyers supported at 3.6890 keeping upside possibilities alive. Stocks pulled back with S&P500 heading toward first level support at 1418.00 as prices float off the recent highs under profit-taking following the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 lower as that index challenges its support at 2776.40 and if this level fails expect more selling in equities. 10yr Treasuries zip right back to their highs but falling short of contract highs again and we have seen this before, too high to buy but refuse to significantly sell off so there are better opportunities elsewhere and the Dollar shows some sighs of life by advancing over 80.00 with its work cut out for it as next upside objective to challenge is 80.50.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The sell off in Corn continues pausing under 750 so have to see if there is any bounce from these levels or will the selling continue likely taking prices to 684 although Wheat tried to buck the trend by advancing but was unable to close over 901 with a failure to move higher could result in more selling as support remains a distant 814. Sellers found Soybeans sending prices under 1678 with authority with a trade to 1522 not out of the question as the oil bean has enjoyed nice gains since last year and Oats also fell under 386 with some buying lifted prices off the lows but overall direction looks lower as 354 remains the next likely target. Coffee prices were stopped by 183.00 after last week's spike trading under 170.00 at one point before buyers supported sending prices over 172 keeping upside possibilities alive with March Sugar falling back to 20.07 with 19.50 in sight after encountering resistance at 21.00 checking gains so prices need to hold 20.00 before attempting another advance with profit-taking continuing in Cocoa sending prices to 2,500 support but can't rule out a drop to 2,350 given prior gains. Inside week in Orange Juice suggests lower prices ahead with support seen at 117.00 and Cotton prices fell under 74.40 as resistance of 76.78 capped upside now threatening 72.86 with a trade to 70.84 likely unless buyers return. Dec Hogs continued their advance pushing through 73.625 with 76.365 the next upside target definitely buy the dips mode as longer term prices could trade up to 79.150 but Cattle reversed lower to challenge 128.500 as traders take profits and can't rule out more selling. Crude reversed direction falling through multiple support levels a sign of fund selling taking prices to 90.96 before recovering somewhat as 91.30 supports but a failure could invite more selling potentially dropping prices to 84.46 with near term resistance seen at 95.00. Natural gas heated up staying over 3.011 keeping 3.220 in sight and with a series of higher lows suggesting more upside as sellers remain reluctant and longer term could see 3.740. Gold consolidates remaining 22.00 shy of the key 1,800 level which has capped rallies for about a year now and a pullback to 1680.70 could be a great opportunity to buy with Silver also stalled under 35.000 looking a bit overstretched to the upside with support seen at 33.355 and 32.815 under that. Copper pulls back a little unable to challenge 3.8745 but remains over 3.7520 keeping upside possibilities alive with a 30 cent congestion area to work through a challenge for buyers. Inside week for equities as S&P500 remain stalled at the highs with a pullback not out of the question with 1411.50 first downside target but would like to see a test of 1363.50 with Nasdaq 100 printing new highs but ending the week flat with support seen at 2759.00. 10yr Treasuries tried to rally but capped by 132-21 while supported at 132-00 the upper end of its recent trading range and the Dollar attempts a rally able to push higher over 79.155 but stopped by 79.900 so it will be interesting to see if the buck can make some upside here.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corn fatigue continues with prices falling below 800 this week and unable to retake that level thus far and unless something changes longer term prices look destined for 673 but Wheat headed in the other direction instead of following corn retaking 907 after falling below that level earlier staying within reach of 950 with solid support seen at 800 while Soybeans pauses although buyers did support an earlier challenge of 1685 to keep prices over 1700 as new highs remains on the horizon. Oats managed to stay over 387 but price momentum stalls with a lower high and lower low this week looking like a possible double top at 420 is in the works. Coffee really woke up this week bouncing higher taking out 171.90 and 172.50 effortlessly and challenging 182.70 long term can't rule out a trade to 201.75 and new lows in Sugar were also rejected however positive that may be, still have to clear significant resistance at 20.80 before it's off to the races. Inside week for Cocoa as the market pauses after the recent move with prices remaining within 2,691 and 2,564, depending on which level fails determines the direction although a pull back to 2,469 could be an opportunity to buy and Orange Juice continues higher after a classic technical breakout looking for 137.20 while support remains at 117.10 and Cotton manages to stay over 73.49 as buyers support while encouraging still too early to rule out a trade to 70.85. Inside week in Hogs after challenging 70.00 support last week which held as the market likely has its sights set on a challenge of 75.625 however Cattle continues higher finally able to exceed 126.325 looking like the stage is set for a stampede to 130.00. Crude drives higher as sellers get run over once again unsuccessful in their attempt to keep prices under 96.23 although buyers have the 100.00 speed bump to contend with to potentially slow down gains as prices already retraced 61.8% of the move off the June lows and Natural Gas also had a good week blowing through 2.864 but stopped by 3.08 so its not unexpected to see a pull back and can't rule out a trade to 2.864 although prices could try for 2.794 again. Gold continues to shine with prices only 27.30 away from 1,800 the upper end of its 11 month trading range so the third challenge be the charm as support remains far below at 1664.90. Silver ends the week with impressive gains as well breaching 33.460 but pausing at 35.000 which acted as resistance since last year and prices are making their third attempt to challenge it but a failure could invite profit-taking. Copper continues to play catch up looking for 4.000 which is a significant resistance level for prices to try to overcome if can close over 3.8745 as near support seen at 3.6780. Stocks traded to new highs as S&P500 takes the path of least resistance which is up closing within 9% of the 2008 highs something I didn't think I would see anytime soon as support remains at 1407.35 it might be a while before its challenged. Nasdaq 100 continues higher as well trading over 2,800 also to new highs with support seen as 2,738.75. 10yr Treasuries sell off trading under 132-18 with next downside target of 130-17 although this decline could be just the beginning and the Dollar sags falling under any support level encountered thus far with the last line in the sand 78.585 as buyers are nowhere to be found.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not indicative of future results.