Chris Bersaw's  Instablog

Corn bounces higher although unable to close over 802 as buying conviction lacks and 773 still remains the downside target however buyers were more interested in Wheat sending prices back over 887 to challenge 891 again but largely remaining range bound going nowhere fast and Soybeans reversed as well ending fractionally lower but over 1745 keeping 1800 in sight. Oats held 387 and attempted to move higher but unable to advance over 391 to close there instead deferring the long awaited correction for another day. Coffee grinds toward 153.60 as sellers become motivated so have to see if the June lows hold or if prices drop to challenge 148.00 with Sugar plumbing new lows albeit by a small margin but can't rule out a trade to 18.00 while Cocoa can't rule out a trade north of 2,700 ending just off the best levels with support a distance 2,569 but an inside day in Orange Juice pauses gains as players ponder the recent move as 133.75 remains within reach with support seen below 118.80 and Cotton bounces off 75.00 to challenge 76.09. Hogs were slaughtered not only falling through 73.375 but taking out 72.000 as sellers get motivated and 70.00 could be the next downside target while Cattle remains fenced between 125.775 and 126.525 for another session. Crude makes another drive toward 97.45 but as with other attempts was rejected causing prices to fall under 95.35 putting 92.19 in play and Natural gas made another upside attempt to challenge 2.900 but fell short and dropped back under 2.788 keeping 2.764 in sight hardly bullish price action as more sellers enter the market. Gold tried to advance toward 1,720 but failed as sellers were waiting to sell into strength a sign of a possible correction in the horizon and Silver was turned away from 33.000 also looking ripe for a correction after recent extended moves but as yet no sign of a reversal either. Copper pulled back after its recent advance but 3.4845 should support on a downside challenge. S&P500 traded to new highs but on less then stellar volume as the markets like the stimulus news out of Euroland as 1408.50 support remains far behind with Nasdaq 100 along for the ride easily blowing through 2,800 also to new highs with support far below at 2779.31 don't think that will be challenged anytime soon. 10yr Treasuries headed in the other direction taking out 133-00 with 132-14 within reach although prices can continue lower with the Dollar continues lower after being rejected from another challenge of 81.50.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Corn wilted once again unable to advance over 809 and consequently falling under the recent uptrend since 8/13 putting in play a trade to 770 as Wheat paces declines trading under 877 support with next level to watch is 857 but can't rule out a larger drop and Soybeans also reversed lower within reach of 1741 with a return to 1697 not out of the question which could invite more selling. Oats were also lower after last session's outside day closing over 386 with next downside target of 376 within reach. Coffee makes up its mind by dropping to challenge 160.00 again and this time with more selling conviction increasing the probability of a trade to 155.00 perhaps lower as buyers stay out of the market with Sugar continuing to sour after falling through 19.50 after a failed test of 19.60 only motivated the sellers with 18.00 a possible downside objective but Cocoa headed in the other direction as buyers didn't wait for a test of 2,535 before sending prices over 2,650 with next upside objective 2,693. Orange Juice finally advanced with conviction heading toward next objective 134.15 as 120.00 supports but Cotton sagged although still holding 75.00 while encouraging but unable to advance beyond 76.18 and unless that changes can't rule out a trade to 72.94. Hogs advanced but unable to remain over 74.750 before sellers returned to send prices in the other direction but 73.450 held for now but Cattle continues to remain fenced unable to advance over 126.550 although 125.925 continues to support. Crude reversed direction closing back over 95.30 frustrating shorts but prices still need to drive over 95.75 to challenge strong resistance at 97.46 until that happens 92.29 remains the longer term downside objective but an inside day for Natural gas as the market ponders the recent trend remaining capped by 2.900 but managing to stay over 2.781 for now. Inside day for Gold remaining under 1,700 for the 2nd session and a pull back is not out of the question either but 1629.50 could offer an opportunity to play the subsequent bounce and Silver also looking a bit over extended while a pull back to 30.875 is possible before resuming its uptrend. Copper played catch up by advancing over 3.5000 as the fifth time was the charm and now with new support behind it the next objective is 3.5930. Inside day for equities as S&P500 continue hover around 1406 unable to advance but not selling off either with Nasdaq 100's performance equally unexciting as prices remain between 2774.75 and 2762.75 largely marking time. December 10yr Treasuries pulled back with upside restrained by 134-00 but well supported at 133-00 with prices closing roughly in the middle of that range and the Dollar tried to advance but resistance at 81.500 proved to much sending prices back toward 81.000 as it appears more downside lies ahead.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Corn tried to rally early on but once again sellers were waiting keeping prices under 810 for another session with support seen at 766 with a similar trading strategy of selling the high keeping Wheat under 894 for the second day as 875 is seen at near-term support with new highs of 1789 rejected in Soybeans but able to close fractionally higher nowhere near 1680 support. Outside day in Oats as new highs of 414 were soundly rejected but 386 did hold to end the session fractionally lower so have to keep an eye on this possible divergence. Quiet session in Coffee as prices managed to stay over 164.50 but unable to advance beyond 167.90 in a very narrow range this won't last for long as Sugar soured trading under 19.50 putting the June lows of 19.24 in play with more selling interest suggesting lower prices are in store unless buyers return and Cocoa made up its mind after last session's indecision day by falling as 2,504 is seen supporting. Orange Juice advanced beyond 119.20 putting 130.00 in play as 120.00 should support downside challenges but Cotton reversed under 76.38 with buyers supporting at 75.24 checking losses for now. Hogs challenged 73.400 only to bounce and close little change confirming for now a short-term bottom as long as prices remain over 72.000 and 74.825 next upside objective whereas Cattle roamed higher slowly toward 126.575 while still supported by 125.325. Crude reversed lower as sellers didn't wait for a challenge of 97.47 to put the brakes on the advance sending prices to within reach of 95.23 again but prices won't remain within a $2.50 range for too long and am expecting more downside from here and Natural gas heads higher but fell short of 2.900 trading up to 2.888 before being turned away as 2.820 offers support so there could be more upside from here if prices can close over 2.900. Gold continues to shine peeking over 1,700 first time since March as the near-term direction is higher with prices looking for 1720.00 and support seen at 1670.70 as Silver continues its breakout falling short of 32.495 but only matter of time before we see higher prices as support remains a distant 30.910 but Copper remained capped by 3.5000 while still supported by 3.4325 essentially going nowhere in a hurry while other metals advance. Two sided trade in S&P500 to end the day little changed although noteworthy to mention prices are unable to stay over 1406.25 with support seen at 1390 and Nasdaq 100 similarly able to remain over 2750.00 but having problems advancing beyond 2772.20 as indices continue to do very little here at these lofty levels. Inside day for 10yr Treasuries falling back after unable to trade over 134-00 as traders take profits with support seen at 133-00 and the Dollar tries to find its footing and rally but has its work cut out to move beyond stiff resistance at 81.400.

DISCLAIMER:

The risk of loss trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. Trading futures without protective stops or options is not recommended. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.