I look for a change in sentiment that precedes the change in trend. Moments of "lag" in sentiment can provide superb entry points into special situations at a discount; and obversely, manic enthusiasm can provide an opportunity to go short.
I research the fundamentals, know what I am getting into, and go long or short accordingly. Technical studies of the market are also an active part of my trading. I have invested for 22 years.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
David J. Merkel, CFA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
I no longer contribute to RealMoney because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.
In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2008/0004752449&EDATE=). Finacorp went into liquidation in June 2010, after which I decided to open my own asset management shop, Aleph Investments, LLC. I manage stock and bond portfolios for clients.
Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.
In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth. Visit this site: The Aleph Blog (http://alephblog.com/)
Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK).
Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research.
Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
You may connect with Mr. Kostohryz via the following social networks:
When connecting, be sure to identify yourself as a Seeking Alpha reader.
Jeffrey Dow Jones is the managing editor for Alpine Advisor. He has previously worked for PaineWebber/UBS and Ford Motor Credit Company, and he spent the last decade co-managing a group of hedge funds. He holds a degree in Business Economics with a specialization in Computer Programming from The University of California - Los Angeles.
He publishes a free weekly newsletter at AlpineAdvisor.info.
David L. Brown is a director and the chief market strategist at Sabrient Systems, LLC, an investment research firm. He is former NASA scientist and retired CEO of Telescan, Inc. and a lifelong investor who designed and developed the critically acclaimed stock search program, ProSearch, and the market timing indicator, the Brown Breakout Ratio (BBR).
He was named Stock Traders Almanac's Man of the Year for 1988 for "[showing] the average investor how to spot the stocks that the hottest money managers are buying." He has edited several market letters, including the Undervalued Growth Report, a real-money portfolio which he published for 10 years with a record of nearly 20% compounded annual returns and no loss years.
He has documented his investing expertise in four books on investing, including All About Stock Market Strategies (McGraw-Hill, June 2002) and Cyber-Investing: Cracking Wall Street with your Personal Computer (John Wiley & Sons, 1994, 1997). The latter was named Book of the Year in 1997 by PBS's Inside Money. He has taught finance and security analysis courses at the University of Houston.
He holds an M.B.A. in Finance from the University of Houston and a B.S. in Engineering from the University of Pittsburgh. He is a member of the Author's Guild.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Chose to walk away from the corporate world and its dogma; couldn't be happier!
I find it interesting that people seem to have strong opinions about the market like Religion when all that really matters in the end is making money (long or short).
Why do I write? Two reasons: (1) I'm grateful for the market and what it has given me, I'd like to be able to share so I may be able to help others, and (2) I hope that any inspired intellectual discussions that follows helps me improve my investment thesis and approach.
My goal? To keep us in the game with specific actionable items! Track record on published articles:
2011 : 85.6% on RIMM short; 5.3% on AAPL long
2012 YTD : 81% (closed May 2012) on AAPL long; 55.3% on MoneyBall portfolio
Frank started market timing in 1982 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and sparked the 1980’s bull rally.
Realizing that this rally could have been forecasted, he began to search for indicators which had similar forecasting ability.
Within a year, his first newsletter was launched, “Growth Fund Strategies Report” which used a market timing strategy consisting of changes in interest rates, Fed changes, Market breadth and market price (using the S&P 500 Index).
The strategy was hugely successful and issued a major sell signal on September 10th, 1987, just five weeks before the market crash on October 19th.
In 1996 his first market timing website was launched. “Market Timer Report” used a refined strategy to market time the general U.S. stock market, and followed a variety of growth stock mutual funds. It was geared towards more conservative mutual fund investors and averaged only one to two switches a year.
By the end of the 1990s, the strategy was refined to one that followed market trends instead of using interest rates and breadth on which to base market timing decisions.
Because trend following never missed major trends trends, and those trends which failed resulted in minimal gains or losses, it became apparent that this was the better way to profit in what was quickly becoming a hugely overbought stock market.
The bear market of 2000 through 2002 generated substantial “bearish position” profits by following trends and Frank began using Fibonacci support and resistance levels to look forward and help identify trends.
In 2002 we changed the name of our timing service to FibTimer.com (live link) to better identify ourselves to prospective subscribers. We also began the process of adding new timing strategies, using our trend trading systems to develop both aggressive market timing strategies as well as conservative market timing strategies.
In time we added sector fund timing, gold fund timing, bond fund timing and small cap fund timing. In 2003 we expanded to ETF timing strategies as well as starting a portfolio of individual stocks. All using our trend following systems to time the markets.
Frank is currently the editor and chief market analyst of FibTimer.com, as well as president of Market Timing Strategies, Inc.
David Fry writes a subscription newsletter focused on technical analysis of exchange-traded funds, called ETF Digest (www.etfdigest.com). Dave founded the ETF Digest in 2001 and was among the very first to see the need for a publication that provided individual investors with information and actionable advice on global ETF investing.
We particularly like the overview of financial markets that his work provides. Even if you're not a fan of chart analysis, Dave provides insight and commentary into which global markets are "working" and why.
Specializing as a market strategist and tactician, Fry focuses on evaluating, creating and implementing a variety of ETF portfolios for individual investors and financial professionals. His philosophy and approach incorporates fundamental with technical analysis in pursuit of risk management and capital preservation especially during uncertain and volatile times.
His new eBook, The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities,is now available on Amazon Kindle. Written as a cheat sheet to only the best ETFs for you or your client’s portfolios. For those that don't have a Kindle, you can purchase the pdf here: The Best ETFs: US Equities [https://gumroad.com/l/The%20Best%20ETFs]
I am a chemist by trade and an Austrian Economist by study and love discussing the capital markets and take a qualitative approach to global monetary trends and a technical, quantitative approach to trading. My current focus is on emerging markets of Southeast Asia as well as gold and strategic commodities.
Feel free to find me on:
Price Headley was inducted into the Traders' Hall of Fame in 2007 and is the founder of BigTrends.com, which provides investors with specific real-time stock and options strategies and investment education to profit from significant market trends. Price appears regularly on CNBC, Fox News, and in a variety of major financial news outlets. Timer Digest recognized the success of BigTrends.com's investment strategies by ranking Price among the Top 10 Market Timers for stock market timing.
DividendInvestr is a start-up finance website focusing on dividend stocks, fund holdings, and investing gurus. The site is edited by Serkan Unal who has been in financial markets for more than 10 years. Serkan has an engineering degree with a strong quantitative background.
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
Jim Van Meerten is an advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management and writes on financial subjects here and on Barchart Portfolio Blogs and Seeking Alpha. He earned a BS in Accounting and Business Administration from Berry College; a Juris Doctorate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Law; and attended post-baccalaureate and graduate courses in Business Administration, Quantitative Math, and Education at Florida Atlantic University, Georgia State University and University of North Carolina at Charlotte. In the past he has been an accountant, attorney, adjunct professor in Business Law, Accounting and Internal Auditing, financial advisor, supervisory principal, and compliance officer. He also passed the Georgia CPA Exam, the Certified Internal Auditor Exam, and the FINRA Series 7, 24 and 9/10 exams.He is presently also a contributor on MSN Top Stocks Blog, Motley Fool and is a member of the M100 on Marketocracy, an elete honor chosen by the editors of Marketocracy as being in the top 100 portfolio managers of over 100,000 portfoiios they review. He would enjoy hearing your comments at JimVanMeerten@gmail.com.
Michael James McDonald is now a stock market forecaster, real estate consultant and author. For twenty years he was a Senior Vice President of Investments at a major international investment firm where he managed over 500 million dollars in client assets. During his career he gave over 700 investment presentations throughout the country. He retired in 2002.
His first book, " A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market", published in June 2000, was essentially a 200 page market forecast. Some say it was one of the best, long term forecasts ever made in stock market history. On the book's cover was written, "How a new model of the stock market predicts the end of the 18-year bull market (1982-2000) and the beginning of a new era." The new era was to be a long term trading range market like 1970. History shows the book was published three months before the trading range market began. Only now, more than ten years later, is the accuracy of that forecast readilly apparent.
On August 30th, 2010 he annnounced at SeekingAlpha that his long term trading range market ended in March of 2009. He says this date also marked the beginning of what he called in his book, the "Final Stampede" - a sharp, five year bull market that would follow the trading range market.
In 2003 he began an in-depth study of globalization, the trade deficit and what it all means to America. In 2006, in a series of talks to groups throughout California, he detailed this and that America was living about 10% beyond its means and would soon have to suffer a major adjustment. The 2008 financial crisis was the first step in that adjustment.
His studies indicate that the American economy is now affected more by global forces than any fiscal or monetary stimulation done by Washington or the FED. Globalization is known to be very hard on workers in developed countries like England and America. On this he says, "I believe 9% unemployment is now "full employment" in America; the jobs are no longer here. For ten years - from 1998 to 2008 - excess consumer spending created millions of temporary, non essential jobs. This artifical job production masked the damage being done to America from globalization and the loss of twenty million jobs to overseas labor. There are only so many products and services people really need and too many of them are now made overseas. Now that consumer spending and savings are back to normal, this damage is readily apparent." He thinks the correctness of this view, and its forecasting consequences, will slowly be seen and accepted over the next two years.
He also says, "You can't fix a problem until you isolate the true source of that problem. I say the problem comes from outside - from the way America entered into globalization. Washington and FED aren't thinking about these things, they're just reacting. They're using old, consensus solutions that no longer apply to our global economy. We need leaders with the courage to do all the unpopular and difficult things that need to be done; not to do things in the best interest of their party or themselves, but the nation. That's a rare person. But at this critical time its necessary. Only then, with forceful, intended leadership, can we, as a nation, address and possibly correct the real issues taking us down."
He is currently working with Market Watch LLC., a real estate consulting firm in Orange County, CA and Cromford Associates LLC, in Phoenix, AZ, researching the outlook for Real Esate in both Phoenix and the Coachella Valley. His personal email address is email@example.com.