Posts At Eventide's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/948027/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18300051 18300051
Thank you for your comment. I will be presenting additional coverage of Apple in a similar content format over the next several months. ]]> Wed, 01 May 2013 00:44:20 -0400
Thank you for your comment. I will be presenting additional coverage of Apple in a similar content format over the next several months. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18255201 18255201
Thank you for your comments. I will be focusing on Apple's fundamental strengths and current challenges in articles to be published over the next few months. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:32:13 -0400
Thank you for your comments. I will be focusing on Apple's fundamental strengths and current challenges in articles to be published over the next few months. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18255151 18255151
I expect Apple's next era of strong growth to be sourced from a series of global and regional disruptive steps. Both new devices and new services factor into the mix.

My favorite axiom is:

Apple doesn't sell devices. Apple creates customer relationships and these customer relationships sell Apple's products. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:29:26 -0400
I expect Apple's next era of strong growth to be sourced from a series of global and regional disruptive steps. Both new devices and new services factor into the mix.

My favorite axiom is:

Apple doesn't sell devices. Apple creates customer relationships and these customer relationships sell Apple's products. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18255051 18255051
Thank you for your comment. Revenue and earnings growth will move the share price higher. Understanding the underpinnings of Apple's next era of success is essential to understanding why the shares will rise in price.

I expect growth to be sourced from a series of disruptive steps to be announced over the next twelve months. Viewing Apple as an eco-system rather than as a device maker provides for a much different long-term valuation model.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:24:46 -0400
Thank you for your comment. Revenue and earnings growth will move the share price higher. Understanding the underpinnings of Apple's next era of success is essential to understanding why the shares will rise in price.

I expect growth to be sourced from a series of disruptive steps to be announced over the next twelve months. Viewing Apple as an eco-system rather than as a device maker provides for a much different long-term valuation model.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18254811 18254811
The share repurchase program will no doubt provide support for the share price. Management's decision to announce the repurchase program at this time will move attention away for the recent preoccupation with the company's cash pile and focus more attention on the new products and services the company will unveil over the next twelve months.]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:13:42 -0400
The share repurchase program will no doubt provide support for the share price. Management's decision to announce the repurchase program at this time will move attention away for the recent preoccupation with the company's cash pile and focus more attention on the new products and services the company will unveil over the next twelve months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18254761 18254761
Thank you for your comment. There's much more to write over the next few months as Apple positions itself for the company's next era of success. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:10:05 -0400
Thank you for your comment. There's much more to write over the next few months as Apple positions itself for the company's next era of success. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18254701 18254701
As I stated in the article, Apple is only ending a chapter of a long-term success story. Thank you for your comment. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:07:21 -0400
As I stated in the article, Apple is only ending a chapter of a long-term success story. Thank you for your comment. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18254661 18254661
It's apparent from my point of view Apple is planning a series of disruptive steps that include new device lines and new services. I see Apple as much more of an eco-system than a maker of digital devices. ]]> Tue, 30 Apr 2013 00:04:48 -0400
It's apparent from my point of view Apple is planning a series of disruptive steps that include new device lines and new services. I see Apple as much more of an eco-system than a maker of digital devices. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18253721 18253721
Thank you for your comment. In my view Apple is positioning to disrupt multiple global and regional markets over the next eight quarters. From the development and installation of new tactical data centers, new retail distribution partners in emerging markets, rising capex investments and expanding component supply contracts, the next two years may be among the most prolific periods for new products in Apple's history. ]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:16:55 -0400
Thank you for your comment. In my view Apple is positioning to disrupt multiple global and regional markets over the next eight quarters. From the development and installation of new tactical data centers, new retail distribution partners in emerging markets, rising capex investments and expanding component supply contracts, the next two years may be among the most prolific periods for new products in Apple's history. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18253571 18253571
The title was taken from the arts but not the work of Mr. Dylan. It's my view financial analysis is both a science and an art form. Many lessons can be taken from the arts and much can be learned from the observation of nature.]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:04:43 -0400
The title was taken from the arts but not the work of Mr. Dylan. It's my view financial analysis is both a science and an art form. Many lessons can be taken from the arts and much can be learned from the observation of nature.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380631/comments?source=feed#comment-18253531 18253531
I'll be carefully watching the cost of warranty claims over the next few quarters. It's possible Apple could recapture a portion of the March quarter's $1.551 billion product warranty accruals if actual warranty claims come in lower than expected.

$414 million of the amount accrued is associated with product sales in prior quarters. Cost of warranty claims in the March quarter was $847 million versus $464 million in the prior-year period.

Apple may increase its product warranty accruals going forward, but device sales in prior periods may no longer be a factor. ]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 23:01:34 -0400
I'll be carefully watching the cost of warranty claims over the next few quarters. It's possible Apple could recapture a portion of the March quarter's $1.551 billion product warranty accruals if actual warranty claims come in lower than expected.

$414 million of the amount accrued is associated with product sales in prior quarters. Cost of warranty claims in the March quarter was $847 million versus $464 million in the prior-year period.

Apple may increase its product warranty accruals going forward, but device sales in prior periods may no longer be a factor. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-18018261 18018261
March quarter revenue came in higher than I expected. But 11.6 million iPhones in the channel will have to worked down in the June quarter. I'm not seeing positive earnings growth this quarter. I'll have more after reading through the FQ3 filing.]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:18:54 -0400
March quarter revenue came in higher than I expected. But 11.6 million iPhones in the channel will have to worked down in the June quarter. I'm not seeing positive earnings growth this quarter. I'll have more after reading through the FQ3 filing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16914251 16914251 Wed, 27 Mar 2013 22:53:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16914031 16914031
In the case of China Mobile, the carrier is racing to play catch up on the installation of more modern cellular infrastructure. Apple is an eco-system more than a device maker. There's little value to Apple in selling lower-margin handsets just to sell more units.

Apple can offer a lower-cost device to expand the company's presence in select emerging markets. But I don't expect a lower-cost handset to be a compromise on build quality or a handset with a diminished useful life. Post-purchase revenue opportunities are important to Apple no matter where a handset is sold.]]> Wed, 27 Mar 2013 22:45:09 -0400
In the case of China Mobile, the carrier is racing to play catch up on the installation of more modern cellular infrastructure. Apple is an eco-system more than a device maker. There's little value to Apple in selling lower-margin handsets just to sell more units.

Apple can offer a lower-cost device to expand the company's presence in select emerging markets. But I don't expect a lower-cost handset to be a compromise on build quality or a handset with a diminished useful life. Post-purchase revenue opportunities are important to Apple no matter where a handset is sold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16858411 16858411
Apple's two fastest growing regions are Greater China and Japan. The rate of growth in Greater China has already begun to moderate. The challenges in Europe are factored into my estimates.

Along with the macroeconomic factors, consumers, in my view, are changing their approach to personal technology purchases as the pace of innovation in the smartphone market begins to slow. The global smartphone market is rapidly approaching a mature market phase. ]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 23:06:47 -0400
Apple's two fastest growing regions are Greater China and Japan. The rate of growth in Greater China has already begun to moderate. The challenges in Europe are factored into my estimates.

Along with the macroeconomic factors, consumers, in my view, are changing their approach to personal technology purchases as the pace of innovation in the smartphone market begins to slow. The global smartphone market is rapidly approaching a mature market phase. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16807071 16807071
China Mobile compatible chips will be available from Qualcomm by summer. The carrier has been investing heavily in modern cellular infrastructure and the infrastructure is needed to make an iPhone deal economically viable for China Mobile.

Apple's recognized cost per iPhone 5 series handset will fall as the company releases the second handset in the series. I do expect Apple to expand the iPhone product line as the global smartphone market rapidly approaches maturity. ]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 23:25:54 -0400
China Mobile compatible chips will be available from Qualcomm by summer. The carrier has been investing heavily in modern cellular infrastructure and the infrastructure is needed to make an iPhone deal economically viable for China Mobile.

Apple's recognized cost per iPhone 5 series handset will fall as the company releases the second handset in the series. I do expect Apple to expand the iPhone product line as the global smartphone market rapidly approaches maturity. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16754641 16754641
I don't think Tim Cook was thinking quite that far into the future. I expect a new product line announcement within the next 12 months. ]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 01:17:29 -0400
I don't think Tim Cook was thinking quite that far into the future. I expect a new product line announcement within the next 12 months. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16752211 16752211
There's no effort to put a smiley face on negative net income growth. It's in contrast to the slight net income gain last quarter (despite the $.06 YOY drop in eps) and the first quarter net income growth has turned negative in about a decade. For the foreseeable future, revenue and eps growth rates peaked in FY2011 at 65.96% and 82.64% respectively.]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 23:18:52 -0400
There's no effort to put a smiley face on negative net income growth. It's in contrast to the slight net income gain last quarter (despite the $.06 YOY drop in eps) and the first quarter net income growth has turned negative in about a decade. For the foreseeable future, revenue and eps growth rates peaked in FY2011 at 65.96% and 82.64% respectively.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16748111 16748111
The quarter will benefit from pent-up demand for the recently refreshed iMac line. On the iPhone line, Apple had ample inventory to supply the two mainland carriers ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations.

One would expect a drop-off in demand beginning in mid-February. I do expect a YOY gain in iPhone unit sales. ]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 21:11:31 -0400
The quarter will benefit from pent-up demand for the recently refreshed iMac line. On the iPhone line, Apple had ample inventory to supply the two mainland carriers ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations.

One would expect a drop-off in demand beginning in mid-February. I do expect a YOY gain in iPhone unit sales. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16745341 16745341
I will be publishing an updated price target toward the end of April. Long-term there's big potential in Apple. Short-term the market needs to work through the multi-quarter cycle of diminished rates of growth. ]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 19:09:12 -0400
I will be publishing an updated price target toward the end of April. Long-term there's big potential in Apple. Short-term the market needs to work through the multi-quarter cycle of diminished rates of growth. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16718441 16718441
Please see my January article for a look at the percentage of revenue that flowed to the net income line over the past several quarters:

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 04:40:45 -0400
Please see my January article for a look at the percentage of revenue that flowed to the net income line over the past several quarters:

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296791/comments?source=feed#comment-16718291 16718291
Apple's net income per revenue dollar is the envy of the industry. In the March quarter about 25 cents on each revenue dollar will flow to the net income line. This is due in large part to attractive gross margin. It's also due to the fact Apple keeps operating expenses at well under 10% of revenue. The more than 400 Apple retail stores worldwide shoulder much of the advertising and marketing burden for the company and are more effective at generating new customers and more revenue per customer than outsized conventional advertising budgets. Further, Apple's two fastest-growing regions (Greater China and Japan) have the highest rates of operating income per revenue dollar. ]]> Sun, 24 Mar 2013 04:21:20 -0400
Apple's net income per revenue dollar is the envy of the industry. In the March quarter about 25 cents on each revenue dollar will flow to the net income line. This is due in large part to attractive gross margin. It's also due to the fact Apple keeps operating expenses at well under 10% of revenue. The more than 400 Apple retail stores worldwide shoulder much of the advertising and marketing burden for the company and are more effective at generating new customers and more revenue per customer than outsized conventional advertising budgets. Further, Apple's two fastest-growing regions (Greater China and Japan) have the highest rates of operating income per revenue dollar. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15505521 15505521
There are two major issues that impact China Mobile and the eventual deal for an iPhone.

China Mobile was the last of the major national carriers to receive licenses for more modern cellular infrastructure. China Unicom and China Telecom were granted licenses first to spur competition with China Mobile. As of May 2012, less than 10% of China Mobile's subscribers had access to 3G services. iPhone subsidies are not justified for 2G service.

The second issue is China Mobile uses TD-SCDMA for its high-speed cellular infrastructure. The new Qualcomm LTE chipset that adds compatibility for China Mobile's network will be available around the time of the next iPhone refresh.

Last March it was estimated there were already over 15 million iPhone users on China Mobile's network using 2G service without the benefit of a carrier subsidy. ]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2013 23:04:22 -0500
There are two major issues that impact China Mobile and the eventual deal for an iPhone.

China Mobile was the last of the major national carriers to receive licenses for more modern cellular infrastructure. China Unicom and China Telecom were granted licenses first to spur competition with China Mobile. As of May 2012, less than 10% of China Mobile's subscribers had access to 3G services. iPhone subsidies are not justified for 2G service.

The second issue is China Mobile uses TD-SCDMA for its high-speed cellular infrastructure. The new Qualcomm LTE chipset that adds compatibility for China Mobile's network will be available around the time of the next iPhone refresh.

Last March it was estimated there were already over 15 million iPhone users on China Mobile's network using 2G service without the benefit of a carrier subsidy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15443421 15443421 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 13:31:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1133321/comments?source=feed#comment-15442141 15442141 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 13:04:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15441621 15441621 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:54:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15441521 15441521
The regional Lunar New Year celebrations occur in the March quarter. Coupled with the release dates of the latest iPhone handsets, it's expected the rates of revenue growth and operating income per revenue dollar in the Greater China region will spike annually in that quarter.

In the March quarter of FY2012, Apple achieved 47.37% gross margin. That's why operating income per revenue dollar also spiked in that quarter.

The extraordinarily high gross margin last year was driven by the iPhone 4S. The same effect will occur with the release of the iPhone 5S. Apple recognizes the costs of manufacturing equipment over the anticipated economic life of the equipment. Next year, particularly in the December and March quarters, gross margin will spike again as the costs of the iPhone 5 series handsets is recognized over a much larger number of units sold. Management has publicly stated the company will be riding down the cost curves on new products throughout FY2013.

The simultaneous refreshes of the iPad with Retina display and the entire iMac line along with the introduction of the iPad mini in the December quarter drove down gross margin in the period
.
]]> Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:52:10 -0500
The regional Lunar New Year celebrations occur in the March quarter. Coupled with the release dates of the latest iPhone handsets, it's expected the rates of revenue growth and operating income per revenue dollar in the Greater China region will spike annually in that quarter.

In the March quarter of FY2012, Apple achieved 47.37% gross margin. That's why operating income per revenue dollar also spiked in that quarter.

The extraordinarily high gross margin last year was driven by the iPhone 4S. The same effect will occur with the release of the iPhone 5S. Apple recognizes the costs of manufacturing equipment over the anticipated economic life of the equipment. Next year, particularly in the December and March quarters, gross margin will spike again as the costs of the iPhone 5 series handsets is recognized over a much larger number of units sold. Management has publicly stated the company will be riding down the cost curves on new products throughout FY2013.

The simultaneous refreshes of the iPad with Retina display and the entire iMac line along with the introduction of the iPad mini in the December quarter drove down gross margin in the period
.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15441081 15441081 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:36:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15440941 15440941 Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:32:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219211/comments?source=feed#comment-15440871 15440871
I agree. Focus on the eco-system and its continuing growth. There are now over one-half billion iTunes accounts and payments to developers have surpassed $8 billion. ]]> Sun, 24 Feb 2013 12:31:05 -0500
I agree. Focus on the eco-system and its continuing growth. There are now over one-half billion iTunes accounts and payments to developers have surpassed $8 billion. ]]>